Mark Melancon was as good as they came a few years ago for fantasy purposes. He posted 33 or more saves in each season from 2014-2016, before the wheels came off the wagon a bit. His time with the Giants was the greatest, but his start to 2019 wasn’t bad, as he posted an 8.55 K/9 and a 3.50 ERA across 46.1 innings of work. However, when he went to Atlanta, things picked up a bit. He notched 11 saves (23 appearances) without blowing a single opportunity, and while his ERA rose to 3.86, his 1.83 FIP and 2.16 xFIP tell a different story. Additionally, his K/9 rate went up to 10.29 and his miniscule 0.86 BB/9 was exceptional. It’s still a deep bullpen in Atlanta, but there’s a clear-cut choice for team lead in saves this season. Is it Melancon? Keep reading to find out.

When Melancon went to Atlanta, he started throwing his curveball more, and his cutter less. His four-seam fastball, you ask? Forget about it. It was hardly used!

Because of the slight shift in repertoire, Melancon was able to induce some more ground balls. He relied on his cutter and curve, which typically aren’t lofted much, to post a 63.5-percent ground ball rate with the Braves. That mark was over two-percentage points higher than with San Francisco, and would be the highest mark of his entire career.

This is key because, when you look at his ground ball rate for 2019 as a whole, as well as some other marks, it aligns similarly, or even better to the best years of his career (2013-2016). I used some basic editing tools to call out some things in the graph below. First and foremost, his prime years are within that grey box, and the large black lines just make it easy to compare to those years.

So, the ground ball rate was up, as we mentioned. What about fly balls? They are trending down after some increased years, and that’s definitely a positive with his home park. Also, that strikeout rate is on par with those years. His O-Swing rate last year with the Braves of 34.5-percent is still a few ticks down from his final years in Pittsburgh, but they’ve rebounded from 2017 and 2018.

The key for Melancon to maintain this production in 2020 is to continue to rely on his cutter and curve to keep balls on the ground and generate swings-and-misses. He will need to produce, as manager Brian Snitker has a bit of a short leash. There is enough reputation there for Melancon that he will likely begin the year as the team’s closer, but he will have to produce, or else he puts himself in jeopardy of losing the coveted role. Closing for the Atlanta Braves is a big thing in fantasy in 2020, as the Braves are a darn good baseball team, and will generate plenty of save opportunities.

Even if he has a dip in strikeout rate this year, as long as the ground balls are being induced, he can rack up saves and maintain a firm grasp on his role. Honestly, he’s never been a big strikeout guy. His career high in K/9 for an entire season is his 9.28 mark back in 2010. Other than that, it’s last year’s 9.09 mark! He can give you a strikeout per inning, but I firmly believe an elevated ground ball rate is far more important to Melancon than a higher strikeout rate.

To answer the question that concluded the first paragraph…. Yes. I believe Melancon leads the Braves in saves this year, and while it may be a bit volatile, I love the draft day value with the veteran right-hander. He’s coming off the board at pick 224 and is the perfect RP2 or maybe even RP3 for your roster. Will Smith is going off the board 80 picks before Melancon, but the southpaw is destined for setup duties. Melancon is going to close and get the saves.

He will provide a solid return on investment for your fantasy teams this season. He’s currently being drafted after the likes of Joe Jiménez , Keone Kela and Ian Kennedy , but one could argue that Melancon will be the most valuable of the crew by seasons end.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball