In 2019, Miami’s Jorge Alfaro was one of just eight catchers to log at least 450 plate appearances. His .262 average was solid for his position, and the 18 home runs and 57 RBI were nothing to scoff about. He displayed some nice Statcast metrics and ranked quite favorably amongst the players at his position. Actually, this is a good starting point.
Take a look at his ranks last year amongst qualified catchers, per Baseball Savant.
| Alfaro | Positional Rank |
Brls/PA% | 6.9% | 4th |
Avg. Exit Velocity | 90.8 | 3rd |
Exit Velocity on FB/LD | 96.4 | 2nd |
Percentage of Balls hit 95+ mph | 44.8% | 2nd |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
So, why didn’t Alfaro hit more home runs? Sure, 18 isn’t a bad mark, but for a guy whose average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives was just .01 behind Pete Alonso , 18 seems rather low. What if I told you that Alfaro’s launch angle ranked 243rd out of 250 qualified players? There is the problem. Well, one of the problems with Alfaro.
As much solid, hard contact that he makes, a whopping 52.7 percent of them last year were worm killers. His GB/FB ratio was 2.07 last year, which is entirely too high for a guy making as hard contact around the field as he does. He enjoyed a lofty 25.4 percent HR/FB ratio last year, and honestly, while it might come down a bit, if he simply lofts the ball more, it will leave the yard. I mean, come on! Alfaro had the 21st-highest average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives last season. He should not be hitting 18 home runs per year. He should be surpassing 20 with ease.
If it’s any consolation, he hit seven home runs over the final 44 games of the season, which coincides with the increasing mark as the season wore on. However, he’s still well, well, well below league average in this category.
He hit .286 on ground balls last year, compared to .333 on fly balls and .787 on line drives. Please, Alfaro, for the love of the big man upstairs, ELEVATE THE BASEBALL!
The next thing we want to see, perhaps even more so than an increased launch angle, would be to stay in the freakin’ zone! That strikeout rate is an eye sore, and so are these graphs below, courtesy of Fangraphs.
In complete honesty, he’s not even close to major league average in either of these categories! He might need a high-powered telescope to even see where the major league average is! For my textual learners out there, here you go:
Of all players in baseball with at least 450 plate appearances, no one had a higher O-Swing% than Alfaro, and furthermore, only 11 players had a lower O-Contact% than Alfaro. What does that mean? Well, despite swinging at the most pitches out of the strike zone, he also posted one of the lowest contact rates on those pitches. Yikes.
Also, his 22.1 SwStr% was nearly four percentage points higher than the next closest player, which was Chicago’s Javier Báez at 18.4 percent.
The fact he hit .262 last season is incredible honestly. When he does make contact, it’s incredibly loud contact. He just has to hit it! Of the seven players with a strikeout rate north of 30 percent, Alfaro’s .252 batting average was easily the highest, as was his .364 BABIP.
Per NFBC data, Alfaro is currently the 12th catcher off the board, and I love getting him as my second catcher in those pesky two catcher setups. There is room to grow and the Marlins have some interesting pieces in their lineup. Sure, they aren’t household names by any means, but Jonathan Villar , Brian Anderson , Corey Dickerson and speedster Jon Berti are guys that can hit the baseball, and give Alfaro some opportunities to drive these guys in!
Just imagine for a second if Alfaro was to replicate all of his numbers from 2019, but hit more fly balls, like he did during his time in Philadelphia….
FB% | 2019 HR/FB % | Would be Total HR |
26% | 25.4% | 18.3 |
28% | 25.4% | 19.7 |
30% | 25.4% | 21.1 |
31.2% (would be career-high) | 25.4% | 22.0 |
There is a path to 20+ home runs this season for Alfaro especially if, he….
- Increases his launch angle from 4.7 degrees last year. Any increase with how hard he hits the baseball will make a large difference.
- Stays in the zone and doesn’t chase as much. Don’t strike out as much!
He’s locked into regular playing time as the team’s starting catcher and at just 26 years young, he’s on the cusp of the prime of his career. He’s had a slow start to the spring, as he’s been bogged down by an oblique issue, which isn’t the most encouraging. However, outside of the top 10 catchers, by ADP data, he’s one of my favorite targets, and I’ll take 20+ homers with a .250 batting average from my second catcher.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball