Prior to 2017, Eduardo Escobar had 27 career home runs. In 2017, he hit 21 home runs in 129 games, after having just 18 in the 232 games before that. Were there questions about whether the power was legitimate? Sure, how could they not be? He then hit 23 home runs in 151 games the following season, and then in 2019, he swatted 35 long balls in a career-high 158 games. Yes, he did enjoy a nice increase in his HR/FB ratio, but it wasn’t anything too far from recent seasons, and his GB/FB ratio has remained rock solid through the past three seasons. Yes, he made more hard contact and less soft contact, so that’s encouraging, but does it parlay into a repeat of 2019 here in 2020 for Escobar, or do we get something comparable to a reality check in 2020? Let’s dive in.

He dedicated himself to lofting the ball. In 2015 and 2016, he hovered between 13.5 and 15 degrees on his launch angle. He hasn’t dropped below 17.5 percent in any of the past three seasons. His exit velocity has increased, which helps, but his barrel rate dropped last year, and his exit velocity ranked in just the 29th percentile last season. Fortunately for Escobar, he’s put up productive seasons with less impressive marks, but it’s not something I would think is easily sustainable.

Is he a 35 home run bat again in 2020? I don’t believe so. Is he a 25 home run bat? Absolutely he is. Look at his graph above. The guy is making hard contact on a steadily increasing basis, and that soft contact is trending down. We love that. Furthermore, consider this….

Line drives have remained steady. Ground balls are going down. Fly balls are trending up. Encouraging trend.

What do Kyle Schwarber and Escobar have in common? More than you might think, especially in terms of their batted ball profiles.

 

FB%

Soft Contact%

Hard Contact%

Schwarber

42.2%

12.7%

42.0%

Escobar

44.6%

12.8%

45.1%

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Escobar hits more fly balls and makes harder contact than Schwarber, who is a guy that everyone is penning for 30+ round-trippers here in 2020. Schwarber benefits from an inflated HR/FB rate, but don’t discount Escobar’s power. He could approach 30 homers again this season.

Furthermore, since the start of 2018, not only does he have the 38th-highest WAR, but in terms of his batted ball profile, he’s on par with some of the league’s most elite hitters and prized fantasy assets. Take a look for yourself.

Name

GB/FB

LD%

GB%

FB%

HR/FB

Soft%

Hard%

Mookie Betts

0.74

23.10%

32.60%

44.30%

14.70%

11.80%

43.70%

Anthony Rendon

0.74

22.50%

32.90%

44.70%

14.10%

15.70%

41.30%

Alex Bregman

0.74

22.20%

33.10%

44.60%

16.30%

16.00%

40.00%

Eduardo Escobar

0.74

23.70%

32.50%

43.90%

13.70%

13.90%

39.80%

Courtesy of Fangraphs

To encapsulate the image above, since the start of 2018…..

Escobar has the same GB/FB rate as Betts, Rendon and Bregman.

He has a higher line drive rate than all of them.

He hits fewer grounders than all of them.

He makes less soft contact than Rendon and Bregman.

If only his HR/FB mark would increase a bit…..

Lastly, since the start of 2018, he does have the 16th-highest fly ball rate among qualified hitters.

Don’t get me wrong, we can point out all of the positives in his batted ball profile and that it’s relatable to some of the league’s best, but I keep coming back to that average exit velocity. It’s not great.

As you can see, he really just hovers around league average. However, the devil’s advocate to this, is that he’s put up multiple 20+ home run seasons with a middle of the road average exit velocity. Obviously, we would like to see it increase, or at least on fly balls or line drives, but that’s my biggest cause of concern for Escobar breaking the 30 home run mark in 2020.

What I do know for 2020 is that Escobar will give you a reliable batting average with 25+ home runs and with an improved Arizona lineup, he could get to 100 runs and 100 RBI. It’s incredibly possible. Starling Marte will get on base often at the top of the lineup, and if the guys behind Escobar can drive him in, he’s a candidate for notching 100 runs and 100 RBI. I mean, he had 94 and 118 last year!

Escobar gives you multi-positional eligibility at a nice price here in 2020. While you might not get the 35 home runs or 118 RBI from last year, the numbers might not dip too far, making him a reliable option in 2020.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com