Byron Buxton , the second overall pick back in the 2012 Amateur Draft, flashed glimpses of a fantasy star. However, it was the same stuff different year for Buxton in 2019. The glimpses of fantasy stardom were short lived, as injuries continue to derail the young star’s development. Through the first 70 games of the season, all in the first half of the season, Buxton was hitting .253 with nine home runs and 12 stolen bases. Essentially, he was on pace for around 20 home runs and 25+ stolen bases. However, he only played in nine more games that year.

Howard Bender would fire me if I didn’t lay out Buxton’s injury history, because that’s a big undertaking for any fantasy owners who takes a chance on the talented, yet oft-injured outfielder. Since the start of 2017, check out Buxton’s injury history. Yes, he’s racked up quite a few friendly flyer miles with all of his trips to the training room.

Year

Injury

Days on IL

2017

Groin Strain

18

2018

Migraines

22

2018

Toe Fracture

154

2019

Wrist Contusion

11

2019

Concussion

9

2019

Shoulder Subluxation

29

2019

Shoulder Subluxation

55

Courtesy of The Baseball Cube

That’s a lot of time missed, to a litany of injuries, and quite annoying for fantasy owners. Buxton made a lot of great strides at the dish, so perhaps the injuries last season were even more frustrating than normal, because again, Buxton was quite impressive last season when he was on the field.

A big plus for Buxton is that the Twins will stick with him through any offensive struggles, because he’s a plus-plus outfielder, ranking in the 95th percentile in Outs Above Average defender, per Baseball Savant. If he were to get off to a slow start here in 2020, the Twins will stick with him, and plus, they know how darn good he can be. He’s going to play, and if he stays healthy, he’ll be the team’s everyday center fielder.

Last year, Buxton made a lot of great, and necessary improvements. His walk rate rebounded to 6.4 percent, after falling to 3.2 percent in 2018. Strikeouts have been Buxton’s bugaboo in his career, but he posted a 23.1 percent strikeout rate last season, which was a career best, as was his 27.1 AB/HR. Additionally, his batted ball profile, and average exit velocity, are trending in a positive direction.

 

K%

LD%

GB%

FB%

Hard Contact

Exit Velocity

2017

29.4%

23.2 %

38.7 %

38.0 %

27.6%

85.0

2018

29.8%

23.3 %

43.3 %

33.3 %

30.2%

85.7

2019

23.1%

22.1 %

29.4 %

48.5 %

35.4%

89.3

Courtesy of Fangraphs

There’s a lot to like in that chart above. Buxton is making harder contact and trading ground balls for fly balls. The line drive rate has remained consistent, which is good, but for Buxton to tap into his power potential, it’s time to elevate that baseball. Join the movement! The 26-year-outfielder took a step in the right direction with his launch angle, as that mark increased nearly seven degrees from 2018 to 2019.

Also, holy barrels! Byron Barrel-it-up Buxton!

THE BARREL RATE IS THROUGH THE ROOF!!! I mean, goodness Buxton, you don’t have to barrel it every time! This is so encouraging for Buxton in the long term, because if he continues to barrel up the baseball with consistent frequency, and he keeps the ground balls down, he will push for 20+ home runs, health willing.

It’s a new year, but the Buxton narrative hasn’t changed much. He remains incredibly talented, he’s still young at 26, but his lack of durability is a major concern and will scare off some fantasy owners in draft season. It’s completely understandable, as his injury rap sheet is as long as a Medieval scroll with an important announcement. Drafting him gives you 20/30 upside, and he’s a huge producer in the speed category, health willing, but it will also come with the commitment to loading up on outfield depth for when he inevitably misses time.

Now, his average draft position (ADP) at the moment is OF46 and pick 167, which places him at the back-end of the 14th-round in a 12-team format. Health issues aside, his upside is worth it, and the improvements he’s made at the dish have helped develop his offensive game. Buxton is no longer just the “toolsy” guy who is a valuable producer in the speed category. He is progressing at the dish, and the increased walk rate and decreased strikeout rate should benefit him in the long term. Furthermore, the continuation of loud contact, more barrels and fly balls screams power potential for Buxton in 2020.

He’s going to low in drafts, and if you can get him that late in your draft, consider yourself lucky. Yes, there are health concerns, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find someone more talented, “toolsy” or boasting more fantasy upside than Buxton. Health willing, he’s destined for fantasy stardom.

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Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com