Kansas City shortstop Adalberto Mondesi did some good things for fantasy owners in 2019, notably coming through in the stolen base department. He went 43-for-50 on the base paths, which was big for fantasy owners, because speed is coming increasingly tough to come by, without completely hurting your team with a dearth of production in other categories. Mondesi was limited to just 102 games last season, and outside of those stolen base numbers, he was unable to replicate some of the numbers with the stick at the dish that he did back in 2018.

YEAR

AVG

OBP

SLG

AB/HR

Hard Contact%

Games per SB Attempt

2018

.276

.306

.498

19.6

43.1%

1.92

2019

.263

.291

.424

46.1

37.8%

2.04

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Well, at least he ran with similar aggressiveness last year compared to 2018. Mondesi was due to regress in certain categories, but it’s crazy that his BABIP was actually higher in 2019, yet most of his offensive metrics declined last year. There’s a lot to dig into here, but let’s start with the power numbers.

Mondesi’s 14 home runs in 75 games in 2018, was exceptional. However, there was no way he and his subpar batting profile could sustain a home run every 19.6 at-bats over the course of a full 162 game season. That mark dropped all the way to 46.1 last year, and will likely be in a similar boat this year. He came out of the gate hot, hitting six home runs in the first 56 games of 2019, but just three home runs in the final 46 games of the season. The two home runs at the end of the year could spark some optimism, but the shoulder injury at the end of the year will eat into his early offensive production in 2020. His recovery from shoulder surgery will carry into late March, meaning that even if Mondesi is out there on Opening Day in a full capacity, it will take some time to get fully healthy and swinging with the same authority as before.

Additionally, the combination of decreasing barrel rate, hard hit rate AND average launch angle isn’t indicative of a blossoming power bat by any means. Check out the two charts below, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Furthermore, there is some concern with Mondesi’s ability to stay in the zone. Compared to 2018, he went out of the zone more often, posting an O-Swing% and SwStr% rate that was over five and just under three percentage points respectively. This certainly led to his increased strikeout rate in 2019, and from June on, he whiffed more and more! Interestingly enough, he did better at staying in the zone as the season went on, but he whiffed more. Interesting.

Mondesi is a polarizing fantasy asset this season, because his speed is incredibly valuable, and last year, his 43 stolen bases were second-most in all of baseball. Furthermore, he was one of just three players to steal at least 40 bases in 2019. However, there are some legitimate concerns with his bat, and is he worth paying the price at his current ADP? Consider the two players below, based off Steamer projections for 2020:

 

Proj. SB

Proj. AVG

Proj. wOBA

Player A

46

.253

.303

Player B

36

.249

.295


Player A looks better above, sure, I’ll give you that, but do you think that Player A is going a whopping 110 picks before Player B, per current NFBC data? Mondesi is Player A, and Mallex Smith is Player B, just so you’re aware. Mondesi’s power potential is far better than Smith’s, and there’s no denying that, but I have legitimate concerns about Mondesi getting to the 18 home runs Steamer has him projected at. Sure, there’s a path, but I didn’t like what I saw in 2019, and I’m not a fan of him entering the 2020 season dinged up, as he’ll take some time to get back to full strength. Additionally, he was banged up last year!

Mondesi’s batted ball profile yields itself to inconsistent production, and if he continues to strike out too much and walk too little, his on-base percentage could dip further. Additionally, while Steamer projects him as an 18 homer guy this season, I view him more as a guy in the 13-15 range. Luckily, he does have the stolen base prowess that makes him valuable for fantasy owners, but it seems a bit too pricy in the early-to-middle of the 4th round in a 12-team setup for a power-deprived, banged up speedster entering the year with an offseason consisting of surgery and rehab.

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Statistical Credits:


fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com