2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Kerryon Johnson

It was a successful rookie season for Detroit’s Kerryon Johnson , as he rushed for 641 yards on 118 carries last year, while adding in 213 receiving yards on 32 receptions. He found the end zone four times in 10 games last year, and while he averaged a respectable 15 touches per game, everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, was clamoring for more for the talented young back. He averaged 5.7 yards per touch and some adjustments to the Detroit roster, particularly in the backfield, open the door to a heavy workload for Johnson in 2019.

The Lions ran the ball 404 times in 2018, with LeGarrette Blount leading the way with 154 carries. He’s no longer there. Zach Zenner and Theo Riddick combined for 95 rushes, and they are both out of the picture. What does this mean? Well, it means that 249 carries or 61.6 percent of the total carries from last year need to be accounted for this year, and Johnson is the likely man to grasp those. Sure, Anderson will get some of them as well, but if we are super conservative and say that Johnson takes just 29.2 percent of those available carries – Johnson accounted for 29.2 percent of the team’s rushing attempts last season – that would be an added 72.7 carries to Johnson’s ledger, placing him at 190 carries for the year. At his 5.4 YPC mark from last season, he’s a 1,000 yard rusher for a season.

The absences of the players above also impacts Johnson’s work in the passing game. Johnson accounted for 39 of the running back targets on the Lions last season. Riddick saw a whopping 74 targets, and again, he’s out of town. Riddick accounted for 53.6 percent of the running back targets. Johnson’s is the team’s best pass-catching running back on the roster, so if he gets half of those targets, his target total balloons to 76 targets. Sure, that might be a bit high, but honestly, if he stays healthy for 16 games, it’s just under five targets per game, which is reasonable with Matthew Stafford at the helm.

Speaking of the multi-million dollar gunslinger in Detroit, he factors into this whole equation as well. Back in 2016, he attempted 594 passes. Since then, that mark has dropped each season and head coach Matt Petricia has explicitly stated that Detroit is a running football team. They are looking to run the ball more than they have before and establish the run to help out Stafford. Well, guess who that works out for? Yes, Mr. Kerryon Johnson ! Health willing, Johnson will inherit a sizable workload that could exceed 200 carries and 50 targets. There were seven running backs who met those marks last season, all of whom are first round picks, or early second-rounders at the latest, and they are as follows: Christian McCaffery, Saquon Barkley , Ezekiel Elliott , David Johnson , Todd Gurley , James Conner and Joe Mixon . Kerryon Johnson is in line for a workload that only a handful of guys achieve during the course of the season, and he can be had anywhere from a half round to nearly two rounds later.

In 2018, Johnson averaged 0.94 fantasy points per touch, per Football Focus, which was higher than Nick Chubb , Dalvin Cook , Derrick Henry , Ezekiel Elliott , Joe Mixon , David Johnson , Leonard Fournette , Chris Carson , Sony Michel . Let’s give Johnson 250 touches on the year, but completely feasible, we come up with the following fantasy outputs, as well as where he would have ranked in 2018 with said point total.

Our projections have Johnson coming in with 294 touches this season, so what I essentially did above was outline Johnson’s floor in 2019. If you take his projected 294 touches with 0.88 fantasy points per touch, you’re looking at a point total that would have made Johnson a top-10 back last season.

Barring anything crazy after roster cuts, the Lions are going to go into the season with just three or four running backs on roster, with the veteran CJ Anderson as Johnson’s top backup. Anderson will see some work, especially after his late season production for the Rams in 2018, but Johnson is the guy and has every opportunity to be a workhorse. He’s currently being selected as the 15^th running back off the board, but as you’ve seen above, he is a top-12 guy this season with top-10 upside. At his current average draft position of 30.14, Johnson is a great value in all formats.

Statistical Credits:
pro-football-reference.
profootballfocus.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football