Despite cracking the top 10 at his position in many of the important receiving categories, it wasn’t a banner fantasy season for Kyle Rudolph . He managed to finish the season as the TE8 in 0.5 PPR scoring, and being out there for all 16 games was key for Rudolph. His durability is one of his greatest assets, considering he’s played in 16 games in four straight seasons. However, while he finished the season as the TE8, in terms of fantasy points per game, his 7.46 fantasy points per game was 14th-best at the position, making him a TE1 in 15-team formats by a whisker, per Pro Football Focus. Especially at the tight end position, just being out there is more than half the battle, and that’s what Rudolph can give you. However, he’s not going to win you a matchup, but his seven or eight points per week certainly won’t hurt you at a volatile position.

Unlike recent seasons, Rudolph didn’t have much competition at his own position with Minnesota. However, the Vikings drafted Alabama standout tight end Irv Smith Jr. in the second round of this year’s draft, and he offers some athleticism that Rudolph simply cannot. Rudolph likely has some time, as there is quite a learning curve to the tight end position in particular, but in the early going, Smith will be able to get involved in routes that get downfield. Seeing as Rudolph averaged 9.9 yards per reception last season and has a career high of 10.4 yards per reception (2013), expect him to run the short and intermediate routes to move the chains. Smith, on the other hand, averaged 16.1 yards per reception for the Crimson Tide last season (per Pro Football Reference) and his combine metrics indicate that he could be a matchup problem for opposing defenses. In short, Smith is more athletic and will be given the opportunities to make chunk plays, while Rudolph will work around the chains.

This is a reason why many might avoid Rudolph in 2019. While he does offer some sort of a floor, his ceiling has always been rather capped, but even more so now, considering there is another viable tight end on the roster. Smith is going to be involved in some capacity, and that will eat into Rudolph’s overall production. Furthermore, when you consider the target landscape in Minnesota, it’s a bit worrisome for Rudolph. While Cousins targeted the tight ends with great frequency during his time in Washington, it wasn’t the case in Minnesota, likely due to having excellent wideouts at his disposal. The Minnesota receivers accounted for 67 percent of the targets last season, which was fourth-highest in the National Football League, per Sharp Football Stats. The tight end position received just 16 percent of the targets, and ranked in the bottom-third of the league.

To be frank, Rudolph needs touchdowns to be fantasy relevant, and when you look at his career, he’s made a living off finding the end zone. He’s scored at least five touchdowns in three of his last four seasons, despite topping 650 receiving yards just once in that span. However, he will need to remain effective in this part of the field, or else the days of being a TE1 (12 or 15 team formats) are over.  It’s concerning though, that his red zone usage was minimal last season. In 2019, his six receptions inside the 20 yard-line were hist lowest since 2015, and well behind the 14 receptions he totaled in both 2016 and 2017. This is a concerning trend, and even before Cousins came to town, after posting 24 targets in the red zone back in 2016, the target totals have decreased each of the past two seasons.

At the tight end position, if you miss out on one of the studs, you either attempt to chase consistency or big upside. Rudolph certainly doesn’t have the big upside, considering he had just one game with over 100 yards and two games with 70 or more yards. Along with that, he was held under 35 receiving yards a whopping seven times, including five games with under 20 yards receiving. While Rudolph has historically offered a relatively stable floor, his upside is capped, and his floor is likely a little lower in 2019 than prior seasons. As the 13th tight end off the board by current NFC average draft position (ADP) data, it’s relatively fair value for Rudolph, but it still places him as a TE1 in 15-team formats. Drafting him as your weekly starter at the tight end position is a disaster waiting to happen. If you can draft him as your second tight end, he’s a fine bye week plug-and-play, considering he’s good for about three grabs for 40 yards on a weekly basis. That stat line will suffice for one week, but not the majority of the fantasy season.

Buyer beware with Rudolph as anything more than a backup tight end this season.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
sharpfootballstats.com