2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Devonta Freeman

After excellent statistical seasons in 2015 and 2016, Devonta Freeman was okay in 2017, but not up to the standard he showcased the two years prior. However, 2018 was a year to forget, as he appeared in just two contests, ruining many fantasy teams in the process. In 2015 and 2016, Freeman rushed for over 1,000 yards, caught at least 50 passes, and scored 13 or more touchdowns. He was a fantasy monster, easily coming in as an RB1 by seasons end. In 2017, he wasn’t as good, but he still totaled over 1,110 yards and found the end zone eight times. After appearing in 14 or more games in each of his four seasons, last season’s injuries should be viewed as an anomaly, and not the usual moving forward.

Yes, the injuries last year were detrimental to fantasy teams, but is everyone forgetting just how good Freeman was in that three year run from 2015 to 2017? There only six running backs in that three year span to rush for at least 2,500 yards and total 1,000 or more receiving yards. Here is that list:

Freeman was dominant! There’s no denying that! With Dirk Koetter back as the Offensive Coordinator for the Falcons, there is a lot of intrigue in the Atlanta passing attack. Freeman could, and should, benefit from this as well. Freeman is an excellent running back in the receiving game, seeing as he has two seasons with 50+ receptions under his belt in his young career. Also, take a look at the running back target share in Koetter’s offenses in recent seasons.

For a frame of reference, the league average last year was 21 percent of the targets to the running back. Since Koetter has been in Atlanta calling plays, the Falcons targeted running backs 22 percent, 19 percent, and 15 percent in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively. The return of Freeman at full health, as well as Koetter calling plays, adds some upside and stabilizes Freeman’s floor in 2019.

Of course, we have to mention that it is glowing report season, meaning that all of the reports out of Atlanta camp are positive regarding Freeman. It’s encouraging nonetheless to hear that he looks good, fully healthy and has a burst to his step. As a professional athlete, without pads and defenders pursuing with the intent to tackle, everyone can look crisp and sharp. To Freeman’s credit, coming off an injury, I’m more willing to buy these reports as more than just training camp news fodder.

Also, the improvements to the Atlanta offensive line shouldn’t go unnoticed, especially when it benefits a potential star at fantasy’s most important position. Take a look at the run blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus, for the Falcons in recent years.

Despite remaining among the league’s best run blocking units, that grade has declined in each of the past three seasons. The team added Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary in the first round to help get the offensive line back to where it was in recent seasons. Koetter has preached balance with this offense, and now that he’s away from Tampa Bay’s anemic rushing attack, he can deploy Freeman at will and let him average over 4.0 yards per carry for the fifth-straight season in 2019.

With Tevin Coleman out of town, Ito Smith is the biggest threat to eat into Freeman’s potential workload. However, Smith is better suited to be a factor in the passing attack, more so than on the ground. Smith reached 60 rushing yards just twice last season, and received double-digit carries just three times. On 90 carries last season, Smith averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, but he did manage to catch nearly 85 percent of his targets. The second-year back will be involved, and get right around 20 touches per game, but that allows Freeman to be in line for close to 18-20 touches per game.

Across 16 games, if Freeman averages 4.3 yards per carry over 15 carries per game, which is a safe projection as the lead back for the Falcons, we are looking at 1,032 rushing yards for Freeman this season. For his career, he’s averaged 3.1 receptions per game and 8.1 yards per reception. That comes out to 401.76 receiving yards, so we’ll round down to 400 yards. Our projections on the site have him at 1,041 rushing yards, 421 receiving yards and 10.9 touchdowns, making him the RB8 in a half-point per reception format.

Do you know how many running backs made those marks last season? Four. They were Ezekiel Elliott , Saquon Barkley , Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffery.

Freeman is currently the 18^th running back off the board and is a dynamic pick in the third-round of most drafts. He has the opportunity to crack the top 10 rushers at his position, especially if he can stay healthy and dominate the touches like he should. Smith will factor into the equation, but if Koetter is smart and Freeman’s body can handle it, he should undertake at least 60 percent of the workload out of the backfield.

So based on our projections here at Fantasy Alarm, you can tell me I can get a top-10 running back in the back-end of the third round of most drafts? Sign me up! Freeman should return to where he was in recent seasons, and there is less competition in 2019 to steal his workload. There is some risk, considering he played in just two games this past season, but there is plenty of value to be had with the 27-year-old running back.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football