It was a pretty productive rookie campaign for Baker Mayfield . He started 13 games and posted a 6-7 record in those games. He threw for 3,725 yards with 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a 63.8 completion percentage. He led three fourth quarter comebacks last season and reinvigorated hope in Cleveland football. The Cleveland Browns are no longer the consensus opponent for the hypothetical matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Out in Las Vegas, money is coming in hot and heavy on the Browns and that is because of the young quarterback giving the Browns a chance to win more often than not.
There’s a lot of talent on the defense, but don’t rule out some shootouts for the Browns this season, to which Mayfield is no stranger. Remember his college days? Mayfield is playing with a loaded offense, but what he did towards the end of the 2018 season, as well as a key offseason transaction, has fantasy owners salivating at the chance to take the polarizing young quarterback.
Over the last six weeks of the 2018 season, Mayfield led the National Football League with 8.7 yards per attempt and 14 touchdown passes. Additionally, during that span, with Antonio Callaway and other home-run hitters at his disposal, he posted a 60.6 percent accuracy on his deep passes. Per Pro Football Focus that was best in the league over the final six weeks of the season. For a frame of reference, Russell Wilson was second during that span with a 48.1 percent accuracy mark. Rather large difference there, don’t you think?
This is worth noting, because Mayfield has a huge arm. It may not have gotten as much publicity as a Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes , but only the former posted a longer completed pass (air yards) than Mayfield last season, per Next Gen Stats. Mayfield slung the rock 63.8 yards for a completion. Impressive. His big arm and gunslinger mentality certainly sets the stage for some monstrous fantasy performances, and singular plays, and his receivers are capable of the big plays as well. Callaway can stretch the field, Jarvis Landry will do it on occasion, although we all know his game, and there’s some other receiver in Cleveland that can dominate all sorts of routes. That’s right, Rashard Higgins ! Kidding.
The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will help immensely, but particularly in the intermediate throws. Per the chart below, courtesy of Next Gen Stats, you’ll see that Baker was actually below average on those throws in the 10-20 yard range.
However, on those throws in 2018, Eli Manning was 29-48 for 477 yards and a 3:1 TD INT ratio. Beckham’s elite run after the catch ability will also be welcomed by Baker and Co. in Cleveland.
If Mayfield can repeat his red zone prowess this season, he has a great opportunity to build upon the successes of his rookie campaign. Even without a receiver the caliber of Beckham, only four other starting quarterbacks had a completion percentage in the red zone higher than Mayfield. Lastly, Mayfield threw a whopping zero interceptions in the red zone last season.
Some personal preferences may come in when taking a player like Mayfield, and he’s certainly not everyone’s cup of tea. However, he has an incredibly high ceiling, and the additions of Beckham and even Kareem Hunt help his floor in fantasy this season. His current draft price accounts for his 2019 totals coming in closer to his ceiling rather than the floor, but one could make the argument that very few, if any, quarterbacks in the National Football League have a better supporting cast than the gunslinger in Cleveland. He will likely be one of the top five or six quarterbacks taken in drafts this season, but it’s hard to ignore the fantasy upside.
Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com