2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Miles Mikolas

There’s no other way to really say it, but St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas was damn good in 2018. Despite having just four career wins from 2012-2014 and a trip overseas for some international baseball, Mikolas came back to the majors with a vengeance in 2018. He was marvelous. Across 200.2 innings, he posted an 18-4 record with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Mikolas was one of just seven qualified starters to post a K/BB above 5.00, which is pretty darn good. However, Mikolas’ K/BB ratio wasn’t like the others, as the other members of this prestigious clubs had an above-average strikeout rate, while Mikolas relied on an insanely low walk rate (1.30 BB/9). Mikolas’ 2018 was so good that it is almost impossible for him to think that he can do it again. Replicating certain numbers, like that 2.83 ERA likely won’t happen, but keeping a low WHIP and BB/9 is completely believable, given his tendencies.

Mikolas is a four-pitch starter and has a changeup that he’ll also sprinkle in on occasion, maybe a handful of times per game. His arsenal is standard, boasting a fastball, slider, sinker and curveball, but how he uses them makes it that much more effective. He threw each of the pitches mentioned in the previous sentence above 21-percent of the time last season.

Mikolas’ fantasy value in 2019 will take a hit, because he won’t post a sub-3.00 ERA again this season, and while the Cardinals boast a strong offense, getting Mikolas back to 18 wins seems like a treacherous road. However, with four pitches sporting a whiff rate over 15-percent, it’s hard to believe that Mikolas doesn’t improve upon last year’s miniscule 6.55 K/9 and 18.1 strikeout rate. That has to come up a bit in 2019. Led by a slider with the third-highest wSL metric in 2018, Mikolas should see his K/9 this season jump north of 7.00. While unlikely to happen, Mikolas could nibble a bit more and see if he can get batters to chase, although that could jeopardize his minuscule walk rate. The point is that a jump in K/9 this season isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

By allowing an 81.4-percent contact rate last season, there is some concern that some bad luck with BABIP can come back to bite the right-hander where the sun don’t shine, if you catch my drift. Opponents hit just .241 off him last season, but as the season rolled on, the league become more accustomed to what Mikolas had to offer. In the first half of the season, opponents posted a .230 batting average against him, but in the second half, that marked jumped to .256. From the chart below, you’ll see that over the course of the 2018 season, the expected batting average was trending upwards.

Mikolas offers a unique arsenal and enhancing his changeup would give him a whopping five pitches that he will mix in throughout the course of the game. His FIP last year indicates that he’s closer to a 3.30 ERA pitcher, while his xFIP places him closer to 3.70. While I do believe there is a jump in his strikeout rate this season, led by his slider, there is going to be some serious regression in terms of ERA and average against him. Here is what popular projection systems have in store for Mikolas in 2019:

Despite some regression occurring for Mikolas in 2019, there is still fantasy value to be had, as he won’t kill your team’s ratios and has a chance to rack up some wins with the St. Louis offense backing him. If that strikeout rate can jump north of seven batters per nine innings, Mikolas becomes a bit more valuable and even that little jump over the course of 200 innings can offset some of that ERA inflation we’ll see this season.

Paying for Mikolas’ 2018 season will leave fantasy owners gasping for air in 2019, but getting him at a value in drafts can still return a profit.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
brooksbaseball.net
baseballsavant.mlb.com
THE BAT projections courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamer Projections courtesy of steamerprojections.com
ZiPS Projections Courtesy of Dan Szymborski