It was quite a rookie season for Los Angeles’ Shohei Ohtani . He flashed glimpses of stardom at the plate and on the mound, a true dual-threat that the league hasn’t seen in decades. He was excellent on the mound in 51.2 innings we got to witness what the Japanese phenom had to offer. In the cup of coffee he got at the big leagues, he posted a 4-2 record across 10 starts, with a 3.31 ERA, 10.97 K/9 and a filthy arsenal that led to a swinging strike rate of 15.2-percent, which was comparable to Carlos Carrasco (15.3%), Blake Snell (15.1%) and Jacob deGrom (15.1%). However, the news broke that Ohtani would need Tommy John surgery, and rather than get it done, he decided to continue to hit for the Angels, when it was deemed that it wouldn’t do any more damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The final stat line of Ohtani the hitter was exceptional, as he hit 22 home runs, drove in 61 runs, stole 10 bases and slashed .285/.361/.564 across 367 plate appearances.

Due to the Tommy John surgery, Ohtani will not pitch for the Angels in 2019, but at some point during the season, he will return to the lineup as a hitter, and will serve as the team’s designated hitter when he is the lineup. The smart move by the Angels is to limit his appearances, because seeing as he is just 24, the future is incredibly bright, and the thought process in Los Angeles is that Ohtani and Mike Trout will give this team the star-studded core it needs to compete. Jeopardizing his long-term health is asinine, and while he’s supposedly on track for a return in May, that doesn’t necessarily means he’ll be the team’s full time designated hitter at that juncture.

Being that he is still recovering from the surgery as a pitcher, when his prescribed throwing program ramps up, there will certainly be full off days built in, where he won’t hit on those days. The overall goal for Ohtani and the Angels is to have him ready to go, firing on all cylinders as the team’s Opening Day starter for the 2020 season. Who knows, he might even hit that day as well!

At the plate, Ohtani is a pure hitter who can absolutely unleash on a baseball. I mean, take a look at the guy’s Statcast profile from last season, per Baseball Savant.

Pretty good, eh? Additionally, his 16-percent barrel rate was in the 98th percentile last season. When he made contact, it was solid, hard contact. Now, that is when he made contact. His 71.6-percent contact rate was below league average, as was his 12.9-percent swinging strike rate. However, the Angels can live with that, because the dude makes hard contact and one could argue he was their second-best hitter behind Mike Trout over the course of the 2018 season.

While all of this might be enticing, Ohtani is an incredibly risky selection. His current average draft position of 181.21 makes him a 12th-round pick in 15-team formats, and Ohtani is guaranteed to miss at least one month of the season. Additionally, he costs some lineup versatility as he can only be played in the utility position. Take a look at his splits from last year as well, as it nearly assures the fact that he won’t get regular at-bats against southpaws when he does return.

 

HR

AVG

K%

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

Hard Contact%

Vs. L

2

.222

31.8%

.300

.354

.289

84

32.8%

Vs. R

20

.313

26.1%

.387

.656

.433

182

47.2%


Essentially, Ohtani was one of the game’s best hitters against right-handers and really, really bad against southpaws. Let’s go back to a statement above: Ohtani is an incredibly risky selection. His current average draft position of 181.21 makes him a 12th-round pick in 15-team formats, and Ohtani is guaranteed to miss at least one month of the season. On top of that, Ohtani doesn’t hit left-handers particularly well, so wouldn’t it be a coincidence if days that he wasn’t able to do anything just happened to come on a day where the Angels faced a lefty? Boy, wouldn’t that be convenient!

To make a long story short, the Angels have said he will be the everyday designated hitter, but there are going to be plenty of rest days built in, and the Angels may even limit some exposure to southpaws. Additionally, those 10 stolen bases from last season certainly will not happen again. The Angels are going to let him play as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but taking a chance of re-injury while attempting to steal a base certainly is going to be on the “no” list for this season. He will not steal more than a handful of bases, if any at all.

There is a lot of risk in selecting Ohtani in 2019.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com