2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Tim Anderson

Tim Anderson made some statistical strides in 2018, and his 20 home runs and 26 stolen bases landed him in the 20/20 club. In fact, Anderson was one of just six players to hit at least 20 home runs and swipe 25 bags, placing him in rather elite company alongside the likes of José Ramírez , Starling Marte , Mookie Betts , Trevor Story and Francisco Lindor . He’s very successful when he does run, going 41-for-49 on stolen base attempts over the past two years. Furthermore, the slight home run increase was a welcomed addition from fantasy owners, as his hard contact and fly ball rate increased from the prior season. During the draft season, the piling stats from Anderson will look nice on the surface level, but there are definitive flaws in his game.

While Anderson was pretty consistent in terms of his batting average, it wasn’t necessarily great, considering his worst month saw a .200 batting average and he never hit above .267 in a given month. Furthermore, in terms of power and speed, he did the majority of his damage in the first few months of the season. See for yourself:

Anderson is really just a stats compiler. He adds up the counting statistics, and in 2018, he happened to do it in bunches. However, it was really in the first 92 games of the season. After that, the power diminished and he just stopped running. Actually, not only did he just stop running, but his effectiveness dwindled as well. His sprint speed ranks in the 89^th percentile, so there’s no questioning his speed, but that drastic drop off over the last third of a season practically made fantasy owners forget about the excellent production earlier in the year.

The 20/25 season last year was great and all, but 20 home runs is probably going to be his ceiling unless he makes harder contact moving forward. Other than his sprint speed, he’s not a Statcast favorite by any means. Additionally, he was lucky to hit .240 last year, as his xBA indicated that his batted ball profile translates to a .225 hitter.

Much like his speed, the power numbers fell off as the season wore on. His AB/HR metric fell nearly eight at-bats, or two games, and the wOBA plummeted as well. In the rolling graph below, per Baseball Savant, you can see that in 2018, not only did his wOBA decrease as the season progressed, but it was routinely lower than prior years.

Again, the compiling of home runs and stolen bases is fine, and in the current fantasy landscape with speed at a premium, Anderson has a pocket of value, however, he’s going to be a drain on your team’s batting average. As previously mentioned, his xBA last year was just .225 and while his BABIP was much lower than previous seasons, his plate discipline doesn’t support an average rebound. Additionally, with Anderson striking out (24.6% in 2018) as much as he does, and not walking at all (5.0% in 2018, 2.1% in 2017), he’s a liability in OBP leagues as well.

Anderson can loft the balls up in the zone, but unless the pitcher is elevating the pitch, Anderson won’t do it himself. In the zone map below, you will see Anderson’s average launch angle per pitch location.

Anderson won’t generate many home runs on pitches lower in the zone, and most pitchers typically try to work in the lower third of the zone. This alone furthers the notion that 20-ish home runs is a predictable ceiling for a guy like Anderson, especially when incorporating his weak exit velocity and hard contact rates.

At just 25 years young, there is room for continual development in Anderson’s game, but in 2019, Anderson will compile some stats for your team, but he will be a drain on your team’s batting average and on-base percentage. There is a better supporting cast in Chicago this season, highlighted by the additions of Yonder Alonso and Eloy Jiménez , but even so, Anderson is what he is. However, his contributions in the speed department give him a pocket of fantasy value in the current fantasy game.

Anderson will pad some counting stats for your fantasy team, but the upside isn’t as high as most think.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com