Flashback to 2016 when Jonathan Villar absolutely exploded onto the fantasy scene, hitting 19 home runs, scoring 92 runs, stealing 62 (!!!) bases and slashing .285/.369/.457. He was even caught stealing 18 times, so any more success there and we could have seen a 70 steal season from the middle infielder. The next season, it was an utter collapse, as he hit just 11 home runs with 23 stolen bases and a .241/.293/.372 slash line. It looked like another ho-hum season for the speedy second baseman, but a trade to Baltimore, another hitter-friendly environment, and things actually turned around for Villar. His marks didn’t make it back to his 2016 metrics, and despite not being too far away from those dreadful 2017 numbers, Villar was quite respectable in Baltimore.

 

G

HR

SB

BB%

K%

wOBA

Contact%

2018 (MIL)

87

6

14

6.8%

28.7%

.304

71.6%

2018 (BAL)

54

8

21

9.3%

24.6%

.321

72.9%


After being traded to Baltimore, Villar’s walks went up and the strikeouts went down, which is certainly encouraging. Furthermore, his contact rate slightly went up. However, there is some skepticism with that, which is reason for concern moving forward. The 9.3 percent walk rate he displayed in Baltimore is closer to his career mark, but he hadn’t topped that mark since that illustrious 2016 season. The 24.6 percent strikeout rate would be the second-lowest mark of his career. The graphs below show that while the overall numbers went down, over the course of a full season, those marks would even out and he’s not a 24.6 percent strikeout guy, but actually a bit higher.

He was chasing pitches more often, and given his streaky tendencies, Villar needs to stay in the zone as much as possible. Villar is a career 27.3 K-rate guy, which isn’t that great, and he certainly won’t repeat the .285 batting average he accrued in 2016. His hard contact and launch angle metrics, along with his strikeout rate and recent seasons indicate that at this point of his career, Villar is a .265 hitter at best. In fact, for his career, his xBA is .246, so he’s even outperforming himself at .260!

He’s just 27 years young, so he’s technically entering the prime of his career, but I’m hard-pressed to believe we see a campaign better than his 2016 season.

Villar may end the year with a home run total in the low-to-mid teens, but the power numbers are certainly boosted by playing in hitter-friendly environments the past few seasons. Miller Park and Camden Yards are notable hitter havens and the parks have certainly aided in boosting Villar’s home run totals. His average exit velocity and launch angle aren’t indicative of a guy who will push the 20 home run barrier, in fact, he’s quite comparable to Yairo Munoz , and he’s never hit more than nine home runs in any seasons, majors or minors! Furthermore, Villar’s average launch angle of 2.7 degrees in 2018 was 326th out of 332 qualifying hitters. The speedy middle infielder will run into a ball every now and again, but a 3.3 percent barrel rate per plate appearance, which is lower than Jordy Mercer and Austin Romine , is far from inspiring. He’ll run into enough balls with a starting spot locked down to get to at least 12 home runs in 2019, also thanks to the Camden Yards boost, but expecting anything more than about 13-15 home runs is asking a lot.

Drafting Villar does give you one thing, and that is plenty of stolen bases. He’s nearly a lock for 25, but his upside is obviously much higher. If he can maintain that walk rate he displayed with the Orioles, his stolen base upside only gets higher. He has plenty of leash in the starting lineup, and with game changers in the stolen base department being few and far between, Villar’s fantasy appeal continues to increase. Take a look at his ADP over the past few months, courtesy of the NFBC.

November

110.42

December

93.47

January

82.95

February

80.93


Villar’s price is increasing by the day it feels like, but he can be more than just a one category producer for his fantasy owners. The batting average won’t be a complete drain, but even with a depleted supporting cast in Baltimore, Villar could be a sneaky source of RBI, to go along with those steals, as he should be hitting in the heart of the Baltimore order. If he doesn’t steal bases, it will be a disappointing year for his fantasy owners, but Villar has proven to be reliable for at least 25 stolen bases. Here’s to hoping!

Statistical Credits
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
playnfbc.shgn.com/adp