2019 MLB Draft Guide: Are ERA and WHIP Antiquated Stats?

As professional baseball continues to change, so does the fantasy game. Every single year fantasy baseball league commissioners are tasked with the decision of scoring ERA, WHIP or both. Each metric has its own distinct set of positives, negatives and aspects of neutrality. Unlike any other statistic in any other sport, it paints a picture of the player, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Valuing one more than the other can lead fantasy owners astray, determining which pitchers gain value in this sort of setup. A lot of luck comes into play with ERA, but WHIP is by no means perfect either.

Both statistics paint a story for a pitcher and can be useful when evaluating a pitcher. However, neither statistic tells the entire story and cannot be trusted as the lone metric when evaluating a pitcher. In short, you will need to be aware of your league format and adjust your rankings accordingly.

A pitcher’s ERA is a statistic that will never go away, and I do not think it should in reality. However, in fantasy, it certainly can be sent to the minors. For fantasy purposes, it is incredibly flawed, especially if you play in a head-to-head league. In a rotisserie format, it will likely even itself over time, but even with a team of starters like Jacob deGrom , Carlos Carrasco and Luis Severino , you could lose in ERA that week, whereas over the course of an entire 162-game season, your team is going to be hard to beat with that three-headed monster.

So how is ERA flawed? A pitcher’s defense is a huge factor in a pitcher’s ERA over the grueling season. Pitching in front of a good defense can make a sizable impact because that shortstop of third baseman can make plays that a lesser defender can make. A bad defense will wreak havoc on a pitcher.

Another reason to be wary of ERA is the simple fact that pitchers can outperform the effectiveness that his ERA displays.

Patrick Corbin had a 3.15 ERA last season, and Trevor Williams had a 3.11. The latter’s was aided by a phenomenal second half, but Corbin was overall the more valued fantasy asset.

Derek Holland had a 3.57 ERA and German Marquez had a 3.77 ERA last season. One of those guys is garnering serious fantasy attention this season, whereas the other, well, is not.

Among qualified starters, Carlos Carrasco , Luis Severino and José Berrios all had an ERA that ranked them outside the top 20 pitchers last season. However, all of which are top 20 selections among starting pitchers in fantasy based on their talent.

Furthermore, depending on your league settings, especially in a weekly head-to-head format, the ERA category can easily be manipulated and change the entire landscape of your fantasy league. If your league does not implement a sizable innings limit, what is there to stop your opponents from grabbing one or two elite starters, then riding five or six top-notch relievers? If your league starts nine pitchers, and by this line of thinking, let us say a person grabs two starters and seven good relievers. They will hover just over the innings limit, and in theory, less innings offer less opportunity for more earned runs to cross home plate. Also, many relievers often come in during the middle of an inning. If two men are inherited for that reliever, they could allow both guys to score, yet their ERA is not affected at all. (Side note: Be sure to install an innings limit that will require your league mates to grab at least four starting pitchers.)

However, that certainly can backfire, too. Allowing 13 earned runs in 30 innings comes out to a 3.90 ERA, whereas it would take 24 earned runs in 55 innings to post a 3.93 ERA. More innings offers more opportunity to improve upon an ERA, but of course, offers more opportunity for a blow up or two. On the other hand, less innings means less room for error, but it minimizes risk for blow up.

ERA in fantasy baseball is a flawed statistic to begin with, but relievers can inherit runners and allow them to score without it going against their record. Sure, the runners were on base, but the previous pitcher was not the one to allow them to score. Per MLB.com, an earned run is “any run that scores against a pitcher without the benefit of an error or a passed ball.” Well, the starting pitcher was pulled before those runners scored, so why do the misfortunes of the reliever cost the starter? Of course, it doesn’t happen all the time with inherited runners, but it does create a discrepancy with the ERA metric.

If a starting pitcher allows one earned run in seven innings pitched, his ERA is 1.29, which we can all agree is excellent. The manager then sends him out for the top of the 8^th, where two seeing-eye singles find their way through the infield. The manager pulls the starter for a reliever who promptly allows a two-run double before striking out the side. The ERA of the starting pitcher balloons to 3.86, while the reliever’s stays at a pristine 0.00. In fact, the reliever allowed more runs than the starter! ERA has its problems and they are only magnified in our beloved sport of fantasy baseball.

The Best Way Around ERA

If your league decides to do something about the ERA epidemic in fantasy baseball, there are ways around it and in fact, you or your league’s commissioner has a couple of options.

Replace ERA with Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Not all league providers may have this functionality, but this would be the preferred way to go. According to Fangraphs, FIP “measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing. (FIP) is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him.”

FIP essentially removes nearly all of the factors that influence ERA that are out of the pitcher’s control, providing a number that is more indicative of a pitcher’s performance over the course of an entire season. By using the FIP metric, we are negating some of the “luck” factors associated in the ERA algorithm

On the other hand…

WHIP can be tricky, too, because while there is a number (ideally around or below 1.00, but around 1.10-1.15 is fine) that tends to state that a pitcher is good, the rest of the stats don’t always follow suit. Especially in fantasy baseball, having a good WHIP doesn’t translate to fantasy stardom, because some pitchers that have a low WHIP, don’t strike guys out, which hurts a fantasy team’s ratios. However, other pitchers can have a higher WHIP, but they aren’t as damaged as others because their strikeout prowess can get them out of some jams.

WHIP does a good job of showing the average of how many guys reach base per inning, but the discrepancies between ERA and WHIP tend to rear their ugly head. For example, if Jameson Taillon strikes out the side, his ERA and WHIP are both 0.00. Excellent. However, if Jameson Taillon allows one home run in an inning, his ERA is 9.00, but his WHIP is just 1.00. WHIP showcases the amount of guys that reach base, but it doesn’t do a good job of displaying the damage caused by the runners that reach base, or record a hit.

Here’s some notable discrepancies from last season between these two statistics:

Some of the guys in the table above had more damage caused on them when the ball was put in play, but more often than not, the damage was limited. Boyd and Berrios posted respectable WHIP, but the ERA was much higher.

WHIP paints a nice picture, on average, of how many batters get on base via the walk or a base hit against a particular picture. However, it doesn’t tell you how successful the pitcher is in getting out of jams, striking out batters, stranding base runners, etc. Furthermore, it doesn’t properly showcase the damage done on the guys that do record hits against the pitcher.

Much like ERA, FIP is a much better statistic to go off, and if your league provider has the option to use FIP as a scoring stat for the fantasy season, implement it immediately.

Listen, it’s not all doom and gloom for ERA and WHIP in the fantasy world. When using them in combination with other metrics, including K/9, FIP and BABIP, you can get a much better outlook on players for the upcoming 2018 season. When in the draft room, ERA and WHIP will likely be staring you directly in the eyes, so it’s pivotal to do as much draft research as possible, because in the draft room, you don’t see the full picture on the player.

Are ERA and WHIP too antiquated? In reality, not necessarily because they are nice stats to have to quickly analyze and get a face-value synopsis of a player. However, in fantasy, they are outdated at this juncture. These two stats don’t provide a true testament to the effectiveness or success of a pitcher, meaning us fantasy players are not playing with the most current, detailed baseball statistic. Out with the old and in with the new, my friends.

If you can use FIP, use that. If you cannot, then make both ERA and WHIP categories.