MLB ADP Trends and Analysis: March 19

As always, Happy Monday! No better way to start the work week than by taking five to ten minutes away from that Excel spreadsheet or intricate software and read this article, highlighting some ADP trends we see between Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army and the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC).

In this week’s installment of ADP trends, we talk about the newest member of the Minnesota Twins rotation, where to go with the third pick in a fantasy draft and arguably the greatest fantasy talent since Mike Trout. The last topic may be a bit overzealous, but hey, this outfielder very well could be!

The Lance Lynn Signing

After finally signing a deal with the Minnesota Twins, it’s rather safe to assume that Lynn likely won’t be available at pick 206, which his current ADP suggests. Despite winning just 11 games last season and registering a 7.39 K/9, Lynn posted a respectable 3.43 ERA and will be one of the main arms in the Minnesota rotation. His draft price was reduced due to being a free agent and his unknown ball club gave many owners pause about drafting him. Despite pitching at Target Field, which skews towards hitters, his ADP will likely rise, because good, quality pitching is key to winning leagues, and especially once you get out of the top 150-175 picks, finding that pitcher with good upside is imperative.

Again, it’s not the best park for a pitcher to pitch in, but it’s encouraging that Lynn has marked a FIP under 3.45 in three of the past four seasons. However, last year’s FIP of 4.82 is worrisome, and when you pair that with an abnormally low .244 BABIP, there is likely some regression in store for the 30-year-old right-hander. Furthermore, his HR/9 jumped to an absurd 1.30 HR/9, which was nearly double of the 0.67 HR/9 the year before. Could these increased marks be the result of missing all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery? It’s possible. While Lynn may not reach his 2012, 2014 or 2015 form, he should improve upon last year’s marks as a result of being another year removed from surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament.

“I Have the Third Pick, What Do I Do?”

This pick might be the one that forces the most headaches, not to mention creates a snowball effect for the rest of the draft. Do you take Trea Turner and get a huge jump in stolen bases without sacrificing power and batting average? What about Nolan Arenado, whom provides big time HR and RBI potential with a quality average, but doesn’t run at all? Do you roll the dice on Bryce Harper in a contract year with some of the biggest upside in the game? Are you dropping Paul Goldschmidt based on the fact that there is now a humidor in his home park? Based on the Mock Draft Army and NFBC, there are some discrepancies between the top 10 picks.

Kershaw pops up in the NFBC due to the enhanced value of a top-tier starter in that format, which is why he isn’t showing up in the Mock Draft Army’s top 10. Well, based on the ADP it appears that #FANation leans Goldschmidt with that third pick, while NFBC participants prefer Washington’s Trea Turner. Within the Mock Draft Army, other than Trout and Altuve, these were the players who saw their names come off the board with the second or third pick: Goldschmidt, Arenado, Betts, Harper, Blackmon and Turner.

Briefly, let’s take a look at the case for each guy.

Goldschmidt: Goldy has appeared in 155 or more games in four of the past five seasons, hitting 30 or more home runs in two of his last three seasons, and never posting a batting average below .286 when appearing in 100 or more games in a season. Additionally, he averages 20 stolen bases a season (per 162 games), which is a rare mark for a player of his position. The humidor does put his power potential into question, however.

Arenado: Arenado is just 27 years old and has been an All-Star each of the past three seasons. During these All-Star campaigns, he’s hit at least .287 with 37 home runs, 130 RBI, 97 runs scored in each season, all while missing no more than five games in a single season. He doesn’t run a ton, which minimizes some extra risk for injury, and his home park is a launching pad. In terms of offensive floors, it’s incredibly high for Arenado.

Betts: Boston’s right fielder is one of just a handful of players that has a legitimate chance to be a member of the 30/30 club in 2018. Per 162 games, he hits 25 home runs, with 26 stolen bases and 99 RBI, not to mention a quality .292/.351/.488 slash line. He’s one of the game’s elites and will be hitting in the middle of a potent Boston lineup.

Harper: After a down 2016 campaign, Harper returned in a big way in 2017, hitting 29 home runs, driving in 87 runs and sporting an excellent 1.008 OPS. He didn’t run as much as he did in 2016 and while that likely will continue, he’s so smooth with the bat that he should return first round value with relative ease. Remember, it was only a few years ago that he hit .330 with 42 home runs and 99 RBI. He’s a perennial MVP candidate if he can stay healthy, and has two of the game’s best table-setters in Adam Eaton and Turner.

Blackmon: Like Arenado, Blackmon plays in the most hitter-friendly park in the game. He’s hit .320 or higher each of the past two seasons, to go along with at least 29 home runs, 80 RBI and 14 stolen bases in each season. There is the possibility he gets traded, but a rumored transition away from the leadoff role could result in more RBI for the 31-year-old outfielder.

Turner: At shortstop, Turner is an elite option at the position with a legitimate chance to lead the league in stolen bases this season. Additionally, he doesn’t destroy you in terms of power or batting average. With a full season of health, he could hit 17-20 home runs, steal 60+ bases and hit over .280.

My preference? Turner.

The [Growing] Legend of Ronald Acuna

Even though everyone has an inclination of what is likely to happen, his ADP continues to rise. In Acuna’s defense, it’s well-deserved. All he’s done through 16 spring games is hit .432 with four home runs, 11 RBI, eight runs scored, four stolen bases and a monstrous 1.247 OPS. He could break camp with the big league club, but at his current age and a player of his caliber, it’s a smart business move for Atlanta to send him to the minors for 10 or so days to gain that invaluable extra year of control.

This guy has the makings of a fantasy star and I’ve been on the record saying that he’ll hit 25 home runs AND steal 25 bases this season, assuming he does start the year in the minors. However, down the road, should he continue to progress, like many expect, there’s no reason to believe he shouldn’t be a perennial member of the 30/30 club, especially at SunTrust Park.

His ADP in the Mock Draft Army is 24 picks later than Acuna’s ADP in the NFBC, but in at least one draft, there has been an uber-aggressive owner moving up to get their guy Acuna. In the NFBC, Acuna has been drafted as high as 49^th overall, and in the Mock Draft Army, its pick number 54. At the very latest, Acuna has fallen to around the 200^th pick, but do not hold your breath for a second on that happening again.

This guy is a star.