2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Dee Gordon

Dee Gordon

Over the last four years, within 15 seconds of talking about stolen bases, Gordon’s name was popping up in the conversation. He’s stolen 58 or more bases in three of the past four seasons, and he would have been a perfect 4-for-4 had he not been hit with a suspension during the 2016 season. In 2018, he’ll likely contend for the league lead in steals yet again, and at 29 years old, he has shown no signs of slowing down.

He’s attempted 75 or more steals in three of the past four seasons, so even though he tends to get caught a fair amount, he runs so much that his stolen base total will remain high. As a team the Mariners didn’t run much in 2016 (seventh-fewest), but in 2017, they gave the green light more often, registering the ninth-most stolen base attempts per game. Gordon is going to run a ton and his presence alone will shoot the team up that particular leaderboard.

Unlike other speedsters, a la Billy Hamilton and Jarrod Dyson, the Seattle outfielder can hold his own at the plate. Take a look at some of his numbers over the past four seasons.

Everyone loves the speed of someone like Billy Hamilton, who posts similar numbers to Gordon each year, and the constant conversation is that you can get the same amount of steals between the two, except the Cincinnati outfielder comes a couple rounds later than Gordon. Well, Gordon has a career OBP of .329 and has exceeded that mark in two of his last three seasons. The second baseman-turned-outfielder is not a liability at the plate, and despite having a low walk rate for the majority of his career, he hits for a high average and a consistently high BABIP keeps that average afloat.

For a frame of reference, here are the career marks at the dish for Gordon, Hamilton and Dyson.

Gordon is very polished at the plate and he’s a tough out, given that his spray chart is fairly close across the board and his blazing speed means any bunt or ground ball can be a hit. For his career, he pulls the ball 30.4 percent of the time, hits it the other way 33.6 percent of the time, and the other 36 percent are balls up the middle.  The graphic below (via Fangraphs) illustrates his batted ball chart since the start of 2016.

Gordon doesn’t hit many fly balls, and a guy with speed shouldn’t be concerned with that. Additionally, if you’re big into park factors, his new home park is 11^th in terms of triples, and Gordon has eight or more three-baggers in three of his last four seasons.

Even without Giancarlo Stanton hitting behind him this year, Gordon is going to hit atop of a potent Seattle lineup, ahead of the likes of Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. Given another healthy season for the speedster, he has an excellent opportunity to score 100 or more runs for the second straight season. Even with a slightly increased strikeout percentage back to his career mark, his OBP will remain high, and he will always have the green light.

Is there upside with Gordon in 2018 at his current ADP of 37.50? Absolutely there is. About two weeks into the season he will have eligibility in the outfield to go along with the second base eligibility that he carries over from last season. He’s one of just a handful of players in Major League Baseball that can dominate the stolen base category for your team, and while there is a wealth of power in the league, speed is at a premium, which pushes that particular category up in many drafts. There were 41 players who hit 30 or more home runs in 2017. There were only 14 players who stole 25 or more bases.

Gordon is more than a one-trick pony and he will provide your fantasy team with plenty of stolen bases and runs scored, while being a positive asset in the batting average department. If your league values on-base percentage, Gordon is a positive asset here as well. Additionally, the lineup flexibility he provides with his dual-eligibility is an invaluable asset that his fantasy owners are going to enjoy in 2018. Gordon is going to cost you a late-third or early-fourth rounder in 15-team formats, but what he can provide is well worth it.

However, roster construction will be vital with Gordon, because selecting him sets you back in the power department. Sure, he will hit three or four out of the park on a given year, but that’s simply not enough to warrant him as a dual-threat guy. The 29-year-old will hit around .300 in 2018, to go with at least 55 stolen bases, 95 runs scored and a .330 OBP, also known as well worthy of a pick around the 3-4 turn.