2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Bradley Zimmer

Bradley Zimmer

Zimmer came up to the bigs last season with a lot of pedigree and praise as a perennial power-speed combo guy for the foreseeable future. In 142 games at Double-A, Zimmer swatted 20 home runs and swiped 45 bags. For his entire minor league career, if you extrapolate his minor league stats over the course of a full 162-game season, Zimmer would be an exclusive member of the 20 home run and 50 stolen base club.

His rookie campaign was cut short due to injury, but he played in 101 games, swatting eight home runs and stealing 18 bases, while posting a .241/.307/.385 slash line. The .241 batting average was a product of a 29.8 percent strikeout rate, which is something that will need to be improved upon, especially if he wants to find his name atop the lineup card on a regular basis. For perspective, his strikeout rate was similar to New York’s Aaron Judge and Oakland’s Khris Davis. That sort of strikeout rate presents the opportunity for a lower floor in the batting average department, but there is room for optimism, because Zimmer’s strikeout rate was down to just above 26 percent in the first half, before ballooning to 33.5 percent in the second half of the 2017 campaign.

If he is able to improve upon his strikeout rate, he could hit for an average around .265 at the big league level. He makes hard contact near the likes of Washington’s Bryce Harper and Los Angeles’ Yasiel Puig, not to mention the fact that his line drive rate is 20.3 percent. He hits a fair share of line drives and his launch angles (via Baseball Savant) indicate that he’ll live in the 10-20 degree range, which StatCast profiles as a line drive angle. Keep in mind that ground balls aren’t necessarily as big of a problem for Zimmer, given his power and ability to beat out some ground balls.

Despite some questions about his batting average, what’s real with Zimmer from the start is his power-speed combo. Each full season he plays, Zimmer is a lock for double-digit homers and steals. In just 101 games last season, he hit eight home runs and swiped 18 bags. At that rate, his per 162 game numbers at the big league level would result in 13 home runs and 29 stolen bases. Cleveland lets their players run and Zimmer will be no exception, especially since he had an outstanding 94.7 percent success rate (18-for-19) on the base paths last season.

In terms of his counting stats, his potential would be much higher if he were hitting near the top of the order, but at least for the beginning of the season, Zimmer will hit near the bottom of the Cleveland lineup. However, manager Terry Francona mentioned that it would allow Zimmer to be more aggressive on the base paths, so we can sacrifice a few extra runs for a few extra stolen bases. In fact, he had a lot of success hitting near the bottom of the order, most notably out of the eight spot.

At time of writing, in Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army, Zimmer’s current ADP of 220.5 places him in the 18^th round of a 12-team mixed format, which offers great value from the everyday Cleveland outfielder. Zimmer offers a nice floor of speed, but given the fact that Francona acknowledges the opportunity for Zimmer to be more aggressive, there appears to be plenty of upside as well. His floor appears to be around 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2018, marks very few outfielders taken around him can match.

In what appears to be a good lineup with a quality manager, the upside is very high for the 25-year-old outfielder. Zimmer has an opportunity this season to join the 20/20 club, and if he can post a .255 batting average and .325 OBP, he could easily push for 30 steals, especially if he maintains an above-average success rate. He was a first round pick by the Indians back in 2014, so the team has high hopes for what he can be with this organization.

With speed at a premium and power a plenty in fantasy baseball this season, Zimmer offers unique upside in both categories that is hard to match by many outfielders around his current average draft position. Unlike most players that offer an upside of 30 or more steals, Zimmer is far from a non-factor in terms of power production. Furthermore, he’s only an injury or two away from seeing his name near the top of the lineup, which would boost some of the other counting stats as well.

Zimmer is an excellent pick in the late teens of fantasy drafts this season and if all goes well, you could see around 20 homers with close to 30 stolen bases.