Regardless of whatever fantasy sport you fancy your valuable time with, injuries are a part of our beloved games. Baseball sees a ton of injuries and seeing a player go on the disabled list is something that us fantasy owners try to avoid, but the fact of the matter is, it cannot be evaded. One could feasibly roster a team of players that haven’t seen a disabled list stint in three-plus years, but see all of them spend time of the shelf in the upcoming season. A stray 95 mile per hour fastball off the hand could put someone on the disabled list for eight weeks or more, while a durable pitcher could break his ankle running to cover first base on a routine ground ball.
Listen, stray injuries throughout the season, for the most part, can’t be avoided and are naturally a part of America’s pastime. However, believe it or not, there are certain players who have a track record of injuries that make them risky selections in 2018. Most notably, there’s a particular shortstop north of the border that continues to hoax fantasy owners into selecting him, only to see the inevitable DL stint come at some point throughout the course of the season.
Last season was the first year of the 10-day disabled list and per the accumulated numbers at Roster Resource, there were less DL stints in 2017 compared to the year before. While that might shock you, perhaps the less surprising statistic is that the average stint on the disabled list (in days) was reduced from the previous season, naturally in part to that the minimum requirement was five days shorter. Of course, since the “experiment” isn’t in a vacuum, other variables must be understood, including the severity of injuries, setbacks in the rehabilitation programs, state of the team, etc.
Here is a look at the injury data from last year:
| Number of Players on DL | Total Days on DL | Average DL Stint (in days) |
Hitters | 235 | 11,883 | 50.6 |
Pitchers | 302 | 20,158 | 66.7 |
Now, let’s take a look at some players who are no stranger to our fantasy nemesis, the disabled list.
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Feasibly, Tulowitzki could be the poster boy of this article. Even in his younger years, he was very injury prone, but since he was an elite fantasy asset on an at-bat basis, everyone continued to ride the Tulo Train. Unlike a fine wine, Tulo hasn’t gotten better with age, and in fact, since 2012, he’s played more than 100 games just three times. The numbers continue to decline, but rest assured that someone in your league will take a chance on him, despite his wretched injury past. Don’t let that guy/gal be you.
Strasburg topped 200 innings just once in his career, and that came back in 2014. Over the last three years, he’s notched just 127.1, 147.2 and 175.1, so while he’s trending upward in recent years, he’s still dealt with injuries in each of those seasons. He’s made 30 or more starts just twice in his career, but his per-inning production is elite and that’s why he’s such a valued draft prospect this year. You can draft Strasburg, absolutely, but relying on him to be your ace compared to your No.2 or No. 3 could be dancing with the devil.
Soler appeared in just 35 games last year, and the numbers were putrid to say the least. He played in 86 games the year before. Soler has topped 100 games just once in his career, and sure, it could have been hard for Soler to log such a workload playing in a loaded Chicago lineup. A left oblique injury landed him on the disabled list last year, and he’s served a DL stint in some capacity in every season since 2014. Yikes. Soler is a big frame with lots of potential at just 25 years young, but he hasn’t shown the durability yet in his young career. If drafting him, make sure you don’t reach, because reaching for an injury-prone player never pans out in the end.
After 207.1 innings in 2015, Richards has tossed just 62.1 innings over the last two campaigns. He chose the stem cell route to avoid Tommy John surgery, but a biceps strain ate up the majority of his 2017 campaign. The good news is that his fastball velocity was on par with previous seasons, but that 62.1 number over the last two seasons is terrifying. At the right price, he’s worth a shot, especially at the back-end of your fantasy rotation, but any stronger reliance on a full year of good health from Richards seems hazardous.
Yet another pitcher finds himself on the list. Duffy has yet to eclipse 180 innings in his big league career, but perhaps the most troubling number is 92.8. Albeit a respectable number, that is his average fastball velocity last season, which was two miles per hour lower than 2016 and nearly a full point below his career mark. The southpaw also threw the fastball at a career low 47.4 percent last season (per Fangraphs), resulting in a hefty increase in sliders. More spinners and less fastballs isn’t a trend that is built to last at the big league level, ultimately resulting in at least one arm-related DL stint for Duffy in 2018.
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Kershaw is the unquestioned fantasy ace and adding him to your team is never a bad feeling, well, depending on where you pick. If you pick near the end of the first round, or even outside the top seven picks, Kershaw is fine and dandy. However, before that, Kershaw is a liability. He spent time on the disabled list for various back injuries in 2014, 2016 and 2017. The southpaw has topped 200 innings just once in the last four years, after doing it every year from 2010-2013. Taking him with the seventh or eighth pick in your draft, sure, go for it, but just like any other pitcher, even the extraordinary Clayton Kershaw is prone to injuries.
Mets pitchers, man. Mets pitchers. Enough said. Since July of 2015, he has gone on the disabled list for the following injuries: partial left lat tear, left shoulder tightness, left elbow inflammation and left elbow irritation. He had surgery in August of this year to reposition his ulnar nerve. Now, let me ask you this: Do you want to take a chance on a southpaw whose left side of his body has been battered and bruised in his young career? Take a look at the title of this article and then decide for yourself. . .
Brantley was a fantasy beast in 2014 and 2015, joining the 15/15 club in both of those seasons. However, he’s played just 101 games over the last two seasons due to a balky shoulder that required ample medical attention. His power numbers and stats were slightly diminished last season, but be wary of where you may have to draft him this season. The upside is there, but drafting him as a No. 2 outfielder could carry too much risk this season.
It’s not necessarily that Sano is injury prone, per se, but there are some concerns. Sano spent time on the disabled list back in 2016 with a hamstring injury, then landed on it again in 2017 and has been rehabbing this offseason from surgery that resulted in a titanium rod being inserted in his leg. While he’s expected to be ready for spring training, the stress fracture in his shin that needed correction has altered his offseason plans. He’s still a very young player, so there’s room for optimism, but until there is clear confirmation that he is completely past the surgery and the titanium rod in his leg, the draft capital one must spend on the Minnesota slugger could prove to be too expensive for the potential risk.
Just because a guy is injured or has a spotty injury history doesn’t mean to avoid him in all of your drafts, but more so to be wary of where your drafting the guy and how much of a reliance you have on his services for the year. Taking fliers on guys late with some injury problems is common and at that point, the upside is worth it, because more often than not, these 22nd round selections end up in your league’s free agency pool within a month.
However, in those first few rounds of the draft, durability is imperative, and perhaps does not command the attention and importance it deserves.