Jose De Leon – SP – Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 6’2” Weight: 190 – Throws: R

2016 Stats (AAA) — 7-1, 2.61 ERA, 11.57 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 0.94 WHIP

2016 Stats (MLB) — 2-0, 6.35 ERA, 7.94 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, 1.53 WHIP

Scouting Report

De Leon is a top-10 right-handed pitching prospect and ranks 33rd overall in baseball’s top 100 prospects. He was drafted in the 24th round of the 2013 MLB Draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers, but was traded to the Rays in exchange for second baseman Logan Forsythe in January.

De Leon isn’t a fireballer by any means, typically sitting in the low-90s. He will dip to the upper-80s on occasion, as well as touching 95-96 miles per hour. His fastball offers some life, which makes up for the lack of overpowering velocity. He has some deception with his heater and that makes his secondary pitches, notably his changeup, that much more lethal. While his curveball and slider are solid complements, they can’t match what his changeup can do. It’s probably his most polished pitch, other than his fastball, at the moment.

In his 17 MLB innings last season, just four of the 19 hits he allowed came off one of his off-speed pitches. Opposing batters hit just .200 against his slider and a measly .167 against his excellent changeup. Sure, his fastball got rocked, but his minor league numbers suggest that this sort of failure with his fastball isn’t going to be a regular occurrence. I mean, you don’t limit opposing batters to .190 at the Triple-A level for no reason.

The right-hander has the ability to strike batters out and it should only improve as the rest of his repertoire develops. In 331 minor league innings, he punched out 446 batters, good for a 12.13 K/9. His 99 walks in that span lead to his 2.69 BB/9. During his time in Triple-A last season, he was very impressive, giving opposing batters fits with his arsenal. He doesn’t offer the strikeout prowess of other big-time prospects, but he doesn’t possess the command issues either, like a Tyler Glasnow. Let’s dive into the 2016 numbers at the Triple-A level for De Leon, Glasnow, Alex Reyes, Lucas Giolito and Jameson Taillon.

 

IP

ERA

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

De Leon

86.1

2.61

11.57

2.08

0.94

Glasnow

110.2

1.87

10.82

5.04

0.33

Giolito

37.1

2.17

9.64

2.41

0.72

Taillon

61.2

2.04

8.90

0.88

0.29

Reyes

65.1

4.96

12.81

4.41

0.83


His strikeout numbers look very good compared to these guys, but long term at the big league level, De Leon can’t match guys like Glasnow and Reyes. While De Leon does have good command, he likely won’t be able to command the strike zone on a regular basis like Taillon. You can look at the ERA, K/9 and BB/9 statistics all you want, and I advise you to do such a thing, however, the most notable factoid sticks in that final column.

Chicks love home runs. That’s very true, however, women find it a lot sexier if you’re hitting the home runs, not letting them up. De Leon struggled to keep the ball in the park during his time at the Triple-A level and his 0.82 HR/9 mark for his entire minor league career isn’t much better. If you think those numbers are bad, buckle your seatbelt ladies and gents, because it gets much worse. In a small sample size, 17 innings to be exact, at the big league level, he was taken deep five times. Of the 19 hits he allowed, five sailed over the fences. That is good, well, bad, for a 2.65 HR/9 mark. This poses a real big problem for the right-hander, but he’s only 24-years-old and the Rays seem willing to wait it out with De Leon.

The good control he displayed in the minors evaded him when he got to the big league level, but we could attribute that to trying to do much, as well as the fact that he probably tried to be too perfect. His 3.71 BB/9 isn’t indicative of the pitcher he’ll be at in the majors, but I don’t see him posting a mark close to 2.00.

De Leon looked good in the World Baseball Classic, so there is plenty of optimism for him this season after a disastrous stint at the major league level in 2016. His fantasy value increases with his move to Tampa Bay, because his path to the bigs out west was much tougher than it is down in Tampa. The right-hander may not carry the ace-like potential of other prospects, but he’s more than capable of being a dominant No. 2 or No. 3 in a major league rotation.

2017 Analysis

De Leon was optioned to Triple-A Durham about a week and a half ago, so at this point, the only thing we know is that he will start the year there. When he gets the call up matters on quite a few things. He likely won’t get the call before mid-May, because that allows the Rays to have another year of control over the right-hander. You know, casual business moves. His performance at the Triple-A level matters, because it could push the team’s hand to promote him, or if he struggles, it gives them a reason to delay his Tampa Bay debut. Also, an injury could thrust the 24-year-old to the big league rotation.

In whatever event of his big league arrival, it will surely come at some point during this 2017 campaign. It could be May, or it could be September, but it will be in 2017. Expectations for fantasy stardom should be tempered as well, seeing as he won’t see and can’t handle a full workload this upcoming season.

YEAR

INNINGS PITCHED

2013

53

2014

77

2015

114.1

2016

103.1

He’ll likely be capped around 140-150 innings this season, but he’s a must-own in dynasty formats and he even carries some appeal in redraft leagues. Especially in the latter format, he could turn out to be a cheap, late-round source of strikeouts. Fingers crossed the ball stays in the park in 2017!

Comparisons

Kyle Hendricks with more velocity.

Current ADP

NFBC – 358.19

Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army – 380.15

RT Sports – 233.71

Fantasy Alarm Player Rankings