Tyler Glasnow – SP – Pittsburgh Pirates
Height: 6’8” Weight: 220 – Throws: R
2016 Stats (AAA)— 8-3, 1.87 ERA, 10.82 K/9, 5.04 BB/9, 1.15 WHIP
2016 Stats (MLB)— 0-2, 4.24 ERA, 9.26 K/9, 5.01 BB/9, 1.50 WHIP
Scouting Report
At the time of writing, he’s the No. 8 overall prospect, the top right-handed pitching prospect and the top prospect in the Pittsburgh organization. The lanky right-hander has immense potential and is viewed as a future ace. Yeah, expectations are incredibly high for the 23-year-old, to say the least.
The reason this young gun is so highly touted is because he has near-elite swing-and-miss stuff. His repertoire is headlined by a dominant fastball and a sharp curve, but his third pitch, the changeup, has always been a problem. He’s primarily been a two-pitch pitcher throughout his career to date, which is one of the knocks on him at this point of his career. If he wants to take the next step and tap into what “could be” for Glasnow, he’s going to need to develop, improve and trust his tertiary option. Consider his pitch usage rates in 23.1 innings last season.
| Fastball | Curveball | Changeup |
63.2% | 35.2% | 1.6% |
The team has reworked his changeup grip and are hoping that it will give him a third pitch he can trust. Per reports, he’s very comfortable with the new grip on the pitch and seeing as he struck out six batters in two innings in an earlier Spring Training appearance, it’s hard to argue that he’s not on the right track. He already has two plus-pitches and adding a third will only make him more lethal on the mound.
In his entire minor league career, Glasnow went 36-19 with a 2.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 11.61 K/9. Even a casual baseball fan, can tell you that those numbers are exceptional. Opposing batters hit just .172 off the guy! The long, lanky right-hander poses plenty of problems for opposing hitters, which is why the Pirates view this guy as the future ace of the rotation.
See for yourself:
However, it’s not all cupcakes and rainbows for Glasnow. His lanky body and delivery inconsistencies have caused him to deal with some real command issues. Over 500 career minor league innings, Glasnow walked 246 batters. As impressive as his 11.61 K/9 is, his 4.43 BB/9 is as equally unimpressive. He was more hyped than fellow Pittsburgh prospects Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl, but his erratic command was the reason that the two aforementioned names got the call before he did. He’ll likely deal with some command issues for the entirety of his career, but even if he can harness it a miniscule amount, he’ll notice a big difference. Along with a revamped changeup, the team is working on his mechanics, largely to get his body synchronized on every pitch.
Rome wasn’t built overnight, so this will likely take some time. However, the “what could be” factor with Glasnow is undeniable and despite some struggles along the road, the flashes of brilliance outweigh some of the bugaboos. With Ray Searage and Co. in his corner, the fix might not be too far away. Remember, fellow tall man Randy Johnson struggled with control early in his career, before turning into one of the most dominant pitchers of his era. Just sayin’.
2017 Analysis
While there is still no official word that he’s locked down a rotation spot, it’s hard to envision him not in the starting lineup to begin the season. Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Ivan Nova are shoo-ins in the Pittsburgh rotation, leaving the final two spots for any of Glasnow, Kuhl, Drew Hutchison and Steven Brault. There’s no guarantee he gets the job, but as a fellow fantasy owner, I would plan on it.
The key to immediate success for the long right-hander is improved command and a sense of trust in his stuff. The sooner he can learn to trust his stuff, and realize he doesn’t have to make the perfect pitch every time, he’s going to start tapping into his potential. The strikeouts will be there from the beginning and can be a valuable source in that category, but due to the control issues, his WHIP is going to be slightly inflated. Continue to monitor his performance during spring training, because perhaps a revamped changeup and slightly-altered delivery could have immediate effects.
Glasnow hasn’t thrown more than 140 innings in any season as a professional to date, so there’s no chance he sees a full starter’s workload during the 2017 campaign. That certainly knocks his value down a bit, but even with a cap around 160-165 innings, the hurler can prove quite valuable, most notably in the strikeouts category. He’ll strikeout a batter per inning, at the very least, with an ERA around 3.65. He’ll contend for double-digit wins and I do believe his command will be improved this season. Don’t get me wrong, his BB/9 will still be on the higher-end, but he’s going to take steps in the right direction to get that down to a much more respectable mark. He will be the team’s third best pitcher in 2017, behind Taillon and Cole.
Comparisons
Jacob deGrom—Similar arsenal and release point on mound, but four inches taller and much less hair
Jameson Taillon—Similar action on pitches. Less control, but better swing-and-miss stuff.
Current ADP
NFBC – 285.06