Kyle Gibson ’s stellar day against the Bronx Bombers highlights this week’s Week That Was.
Kyle Gibson : Just when many a fantasy leaguer benched him for his start in Yankee Stadium, Kyle Gibson went out and was brilliant. The Twins righty twirled six shutout innings giving up just one hit while striking out 10 (of course, it was not his fault the bullpen imploded on him later but I digress). It may only be a slight hyperbole to say that Gibson is one of the most polarizing figures in fantasy baseball. Half the pundits say “heck no, I will not fall for that again.” The other half look at the advanced metrics, prior success and strong second half of 2017 to say “I will not let my emotions keep me away from a potentially very good pitcher.” While I am in the group that mistakenly benched Gibson this week, I am also in the group that believes in him and will advocate for him here. Rick Wolf and I rostered Gibson this pre-season on the strength of his second half of 2017: 11% swinging strike rate; 61% first pitch strike rate; and a slider that was filthy over his last 8 starts. This year, he has three pitches that boast a 20%+ swinging strike rate according to our friends at fangraphs (the curve, change and slider). That bodes very well for a good season – especially one in which he gets a lot of the lowly Royals, White Sox and Tigers. I am buying.
Jake Odorizzi : Sticking with Twins pitchers, Jake Odorizzi was strong Saturday going six innings while giving up just one run on the way to a win. On the year, Jake is 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA and an elevated 1.38 WHIP. So which way will things go for the him? Unlike for Kyle Gibson , I cannot place too much confidence in Jake. That 3.94 ERA is artificially being held down by an 88% strand rate and .241 BABIP. Thus, it is not surprising to see that his FIP is almost two full runs higher at 5.84. When you combine the fact that he is getting under 30% ground balls with the fact that he routinely allows 12+% HR/FB, you get a combustible combination of a lot of dingers. Oh, and the fact that the league is registering a hard hit percentage of over 36% on him does not inspire confidence. Yes, he will get to pitch against the weak teams in the AL Central but all of the warning signs above together with a reduced velocity tells me to look elsewhere for a reliable starter.
Marco Gonzales : Gonzales tossed six innings of two run ball, giving up six hits and striking out 4 on the way to a win Sunday. On the year, Gonzales’s 5.02 ERA is hardly impressive. Good, that presents a buying opportunity for you and me. Why you ask? Good question! First, he has pitched far better than that inflated ERA says. His xFIP is a mere 2.73, his BABIP is a wildly inflated .390 (300-310 is average) and his strand rate also shows some bad luck. On the plus skills side, Marco has posted a 6:1 K/BB ratio, is getting grounders at almost 47% and is getting ahead of hitters more than 65% of the time. This is the classic buy low opportunity and I plan to take advantage. You in?
José Peraza : José Peraza had another big game Sunday going 3-5 with a run and a rbi. This comes after a big Saturday in which Jose went 4-6 with two dingers. With this big weekend in the books, Peraza is hitting .299 with 16 runs scored. So, can this Peraza stay around and be a productive hitter for the next 5 months? Productive yes, superstar, that may be asking a wee bit too much. Why do I think he will be productive? First, the Reds know they cannot compete so why not give Peraza an extended audition to prove himself (translation – limited playing time risk). Second, the 87% contact rate says he will put balls in play and use his speed to keep that batting average solid. Third, the hard hit rate has jumped 5 percentage points while the infield flyballs (automatic outs) have fallen almost 10 percentage points. There are many out there who think Peraza will fail. If the price has dropped enough, go get the value because I disagree.
C.J. Cron : Last week we wrote: “Before the games Sunday, I penned this portion of the article: “C.J. Cron went 2-4 with two dingers, two runs and four RBI in the big win Saturday. In the week ending Saturday, Cron was hitting a cool .357 with three dingers and eight RBI. Not too shabby. The window is inches away from closing on this breakout hitter. He has hit 16 dingers each of the last three years despite averaging only 374 AB over that span. Simple math would say that he will hit in the high 20’s just by virtue of playing full time. I will take the over. Check out these advanced metrics: hard hit rate way up (over 40%), flyball rate up; oppo/middle way up (showing a more mature approach). I am in. Who is with me?” Well, thanks C.J.! All he did Sunday was go 2-5 with a run, a dinger and two RBI. Now are you with me?” C.J. continues to make me look prescient. In the last week, C.J. is 10-34 (.294) with four dingers, 10 RBI and nine runs scored. If your roto team cannot use stats like that you are guaranteed to win.
Daniel Robertson : Also last week, we wrote: “DRob (yeah, I made that nickname up for him I think) was en fuego Sunday going 4-4 with a run scored. With his recent hot streak, his average is up to .318 and his OPS a sparkling .997. Is he this good right now? Probably not. Is he showing a much more mature approach at the plate? You bet. He has walked more often than he has struck out on the young season. Is he a quality add in both mixed and only leagues? Yes, but you better act fast.” Like Cron, DRob the Ray made me look SMART! On the week, DRob hit a cool .500 (yes, .500!) with two dingers, four RBI and five runs scored. Convinced yet?
And now, the moment you have been waiting for -- Schultz says: “With this week’s promotion of Ronald Acuna , the collective dreams of all roto-owners that he will be the once and future Troutian savior of the season are revived. It’s been years since the overnight transformation of Mike Trout from minor league question mark to unequivocal and undisputed best roto-player in the world. Notwithstanding the extreme unlikelihood of it ever having happened once, we all keep waiting for it to happen again. Why? Because at heart, aren’t we all just foolish roto-romantics?
While it is fun to aim for the stars, it’s more productive to keep your feet on the ground. Rather than splurge on the shiny new toy, remember the ones that disappointed . . . and then scoop them out of the bargain bin.
Sean Manaea , who came to Oakland as the centerpiece of a Ben Zobrist trade that arguably led to K.C.’s championship run, was supposed to assume ace status from the moment he touched an MLB mound. Those who have shown patience with him - and it was close to two agonizing seasons of patience - are finally getting what they expected.
Former first rounder Dylan Bundy has also rewarded those who weren’t permanently discouraged by the slowly dimming prospect spotlight that once lit him so brightly. Despite modest numbers in 2017, his remarkably low walk rate foreshadowed this year’s breakout.
Now, don’t get Schultz wrong, he’s not advising you to avoid Acuna or to begin believing in the Jurickson Profar resurgence/resurrection. Just keep your wits about you when the “next big thing” comes within arms’ reach.”
Response: Why is Schultz dissing Profar? Ok, I know the answer to that one. More importantly, the oft-repeated Schultzian maxim that overhyped young talented players often become undervalued stars remains true and remains a maxim you should use to increase your chances of winning your fantasy baseball league.