A critical Rule of Engagement highlights this week’s Week That Was.

Rule:  Players between 24 and 27 with between 800 and 1,000 AB have set a baseline of expectations at an early age – a baseline below their true ability.  Thus, those players are often due for a bump and can be had at below true value prices.  While not all players fulfill this prophecy, many do – including those listed below.  Heed this rule at your 2017 draft table and as you assess who to trade and for whom to trade this summer.

Christian Yelich:  The Marlin OF was hitting .316 with 7 HR and 44 RBI as of Friday night.  The average has jumped from last year’s .300 but the 7 HR and 44 RBI on July 8 are equal to his full season production a year ago. That spells pure profit in the second half.   Oh, and if you are a doubter, the advanced metrics will not help you support that doubt as his hard contact rate is up without sacrificing the overall contact rate or strikeout rate as the latter two are consistent from a year ago.   Profit was had if you rostered the young Marlin.

Didi Gregorius:  As of Friday, the 26-year-old Yankee shortstop was hitting .300 even with 10 HR and 5 SB.  Compare that to his prior three-year (full year) averages of .250, 7 HR and 2 SB.  I think one can fairly call his 2016 a breakout.  As I keep saying, watch Didi play – he hits the other way when pitched away, jerks balls down the line when pitched inside and knows how to hit in situations.  This guy has matured before your eyes – a maturation very much predicted by the Rules of Engagement.  [NB: As I am writing this on Saturday, Didi went yard again – No. 11 on the year].

Marcus Semien:  As of Friday, the Oakland shortstop had 19 HR and 45 RBI.  That is pretty darn good no matter who you are.  However, when you consider that Semien has more HR and as many RBI as of July 8 as he had last season in total, you see clearly that he is having the ROE predicted breakout season.  Yes, I know that the .241 average is not special but it is due to rise.  That .260 BABIP shows he has been unlucky.   Use the low average as leverage to steal Semien from the unsuspecting owner in your league. 

Nick Castellanos:  The third year Tiger 3B posted a .306 average with 17 HR and 51 RBI through Friday.  In his first two seasons, Castellanos had a batting average almost 50 points lower and an average of 13 bombs per full season (as compared to the 17 he has already hit this year).  You will find Castellanos on a lot of fantasy baseball title teams in 2016. 

Jean Segura:  Jean Segura has found his mark in Arizona.  The 26-year-old shortstop was sporting a .316 average with 6 HR, 15 SB and 52 runs as of Friday.  Over the last two years, he has hit 60-plus points lower and averaged 59 runs per FULL season.  Yes, he has always posted speed numbers and is doing so again this year.  However, that does not take away from the fact that anyone who invested in Segura is reaping a serious profit.  The Rules of Engagement are ignored at your peril. 

Marcell Ozuna:  Maybe it is the Barry Bonds effect.  Or just maybe the Rules of Engagement work.  As of Friday, the Marlins CF was hitting .307 with 17 HR and 47 RBI.  That is the same number of HR on July 8 that he averaged per full season the last two years.  Oh, and his batting average for 2014-15 was not .307, it was 43 points lower.  This is the stuff of which fantasy baseball Yoo-Hoo showers are made. 

Andrelton Simmons:  Simmons has been hurt so the full year numbers are deceiving.  However, take a look at his numbers over the last two weeks ending Friday now that he is healthy: .389 with 8 RBI and 12 runs.  I have little doubt that as long as he stays healthy, he will produce more in the second half than his .256 career.      

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates -- aka Schultz says: “The arrival of the All-Star break brings with it the unofficial start of dumping season for most roto-baseball leagues. For those that did a better job of prognosticating the 2016 season, it's a prime opportunity to scavenge the salvageable bits and pieces from the bottom-dwelling teams in the hopes of bolstering their run to the title in the second half of the season. However, baseball players don't come with warnings that accompany many products sold on late-night TV which alert unsuspecting consumers that "past results may not be indicative of future performance."

Upholding the legend of the Home Run Derby Curse, Todd Frazier has been notoriously disappointing in the second half of any season. The 25 home runs Frazier swatted in the first half may cause delusions that the South Side third baseman is the poor-man's version of his North Side counterpart (that would be Kris Bryant for those that are geographically challenged). Over his career, Frazier has been a first-half terror, hitting .261 while homering in every 4.5 games he starts. However, post-All Star break, Frazier's average drops precipitously to .239 with the ball leaving the yard every 6.2 starts. Given that Frazier is already hitting .215, this does bode well.  

Similarly, the resurgence of Mark Trumbo within the confines of Camden Yards should probably be tempered by the knowledge that historically, the AL's home run champ wilts in the summer heat. Over his career, Trumbo's first half stats of .264 with a home run every every starts plummets to a .242 with a homer every 6.15 starts. Even more worrisome, his slugging percentage drops from .514 to .419. Those targeting All-Stars with proven upside might want to look at Trumbo's teammate Chris Davis, who traditionally hits for better average (.246/.263) and slugs mightier (.499/.511) after the break.

Others worth targeting should they be a gem in another team's rough: Joey Votto usually ups his average to .314 from .303 and his slugging percentage to .553 from .513; Carlos Gonzalez' batting average may drop slightly but his slugging percentage goes from .516 to .543 and he homers nearly every four games as opposed to one every 5.2 starts in the first half. As if Josh Donaldson couldn't be more appealing, he boosts his average from .274 to .289 during the home stretch.

Knowing is half the batter . . . and now you know.

Next week: the highly anticipated return of the Mid-Season All-Schultz Awards!!!”

Response:  Just great stuff.  Pure and simple.  Bravo!