Buy low candidates highlight this week’s Week That Was.

Corey Kluber:  Corey Kluber went seven innings giving up just two runs and striking out six in his latest outing.  The window is closing!  Call up the Kluber owner in your league and blather on about that 4.10 ERA and hope to steal a guy who will be one of the best pitchers in the majors over the last four months.  That ERA is simply not a fair indicator of what Kluber is or will be.  First, he is striking out a batter per inning and that should increase given his 514 strikeouts over the last two years and given a 2016 swinging strike rate that is in line with those last two years.  Second, Kluber is inducing more ground balls which, when put together with that strikeout rate, should operate to normalize the strand rate and reduce the runs that cross the plate.  It is no surprise that Kluber’s FIP and xFIP are almost a run lower than his ERA.  I am not sure there are many who are foolish enough to sell low on the Klubot but if there is one in your league, well, you know what to do!

Desmond Jennings:  As it stands today, Desmond Jennings is riding the interstate well below the Mendoza Line with an ugly .181 batting average.  Well, this is a buy low column, just think of this as REALLY low.  Despite the ugly average, there are reasons for optimism.  First, in the seven days leading up to Sunday’s game, Jennings hit .333 with two dingers.  Second, Jennings has been very unlucky as his .225 BABIP shows (career is around .295).  Third, he is making more hard contact and spreading the ball around the field more than last year.  Finally, the injury to Kevin Kiermaier has opened the door to more playing time.  Bottom line here:  there is a reason Jennings was a major prospect.  Yes, he has never lived up to the hype but given the price you will likely have to pay, there is profit in them there hills.  

Leonys Martin: Leonys Martin went 2-2 with two walks and a run scored Friday night.  Even with the nice game, Martin went into Saturday hitting an unsightly .227.  Do not let that average fool you as it has come with seven dingers and seven swipes.  I recommend taking a risk and buying low on Martin.  Yes, he is striking out more.  However, he has walked more and even without an improved average, he will steal bases (he already has two 30-plus SB seasons under his belt).  Want more proof?  Well, his BABIP is well below his career average and well below what one would expect from a speedster and also well below where I would expect it to be given his substantially higher hard contact percentage.  Thus, there is average improvement coming.  When it arrives, you will not be able to buy the swipes cheap. Act now! 

Jose Abreu:  As of the beginning of play Saturday, the ChiSox slugger was hitting only .242 with just six HR.  Is this the new Abreu or a buy low opportunity?  Answer: the latter.  Abreu is actually walking more, striking out less and making the same level of contact.  Thus, there is little reason for his plummeted average.  Expect that to rise.  As to the dinger numbers, his HR/FB is well below the levels he set in his first two years.  As the weather warms in the Midwest, expect Abreu to hit with more pop.  Bottom line here – this guy is a stud and will have stud numbers before the season is over.  Buy!

Chase HeadleyYes, Chase has been pretty darn awful so far with his .217 average and nine RBI going into Saturday despite playing his home games in a bandbox.  That is the bad news.  The good news is that his awfulnesss (I know, not a word) presents a buying opportunity.  Will Chase ever be that 31-dinger guy of 2012 again?  No. Will he be better than he is right now by a lot? Yes.  Indeed, he is starting to come around as his .333 over the last two weeks shows.  Want to know the other reasons I see increased performance on the horizon?  Well, here you go:  Chase’s walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, and he is pulling the ball less (the only player on the Yankees who actually seems to fit that bill).  The Yankees will hit more, the ball will be flying out of Yankee Stadium all summer and Headley will rise from putrid to solid and that will be a big boost given the likely low price.   

Kevin Pillar: Entering Saturday’s games, Kevin Pillar had a pedestrian .250 average with just two dingers and four SB.  By comparison, Pillar hit .278 with 12 HR and 25 SB last year.  Better times are coming.  Pillar is making the same level of contact as last year with more hard contact.  There is no reason I can see for the batting average drop to continue.  Expect more times on base, more production in that Toronto offense and more SB as there is just no explanation for his speed outage.  Bottom line – you will get more value than what you will need to pay if you purchase Pillar now. 

Howie Kendrick: Entering Saturday, Kendrick had a pretty weak line headlined by his .221 batting average and zero dingers.  This is about to change.  Kendrick has hit .304 over the last week.  That is not a surprise given that he has hit .285 or better each of the last five years and nine of the last 10.  Talk about consistency!  That .221 average is simply the product of some rust and an unlucky BABIP.  His hard contact and opposite field numbers are consistent with previous years.  Translation: that batting average is about to rise -- a lot.  You heard it here.

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates -- a/k/a Schultz says: “If you read enough roto-columns, you are up-to-speed on the concept of post-hype superstars. If you are a newbie to the concept, let Schultz summarize: it's often prudent to remember the names of prospects who have lost their immediate luster. Why? Well, not everyone that makes it to The Big Show hits the ground running . . . or hitting . . . or pitching. There might be a broader discussion to be had about the desire for immediate gratification but, safe to say, roto-owners have a terrible tendency to turn on the young'un who fails to be Ruthian or Koufaxian right out of the gate. Forgetting that there's a reason they were highly touted, the roto-world (again, that sounds like something that used to be a thing) discards them to recycling bin. All too often, that can be a mistake.

Take a gander at the current AL batting leaders: bolstered by a 26-game hitting streak, Jackie Bradley, Jr sits atop the list with his .342, 8 HR and 33 RBIs closely followed by Xander Bogaerts at .339 and Nick Castellanos with a .338, 8 HR, 30 RBI line of his own. Although Bogaerts hadn't exactly been forgotten at this year's auctions and drafts, JBJ and Castellanos were nothing more than afterthoughts -- and now they are likely pacing the team that leads your league in hitting. Oh yes, over in the National League, former Baltimore Oriole castoff and current King of Post-Hype, Jake Arrieta, can lay claim to being the best pitcher in the game. 

Why is this worth keeping in mind? Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Corey Seager and Blake Swihart haven't exactly done their part in proving the pundits' proclamations to be prognostic-ally sound with all but Seager being sent back to AAA for "rebuilding." Don't write them off because they didn't immediately bring you roto-glory. Be smart, recognize talent and invest accordingly. ”

Response:  Wow, nice work Schultzie!  Readers would be wise to heed that advice.