There is a great debate out there in the fantasy sports community about whether draft strategy is really important. Many terrific fantasy sports experts say “let the draft come to you.” Rick Wolf and I respectfully disagree (albeit in a far more colorful fashion that begins with one of us scolding fantasy sports owners to “never ever leave their wingman” in classic “Top Gun” style and often morphing into both of us yelling “stop projecting” and “hillbilly” as we channel John and Jeremy from “Wedding Crashers” – but I digress). OK, while we failed to add an expert title in 2015 (though given that we play against the best in the world, second place LABR AL, third place Tout Wars AL and fourth place LABR NL is nothing at which to sneeze but I digress again), we remain convinced more than ever that you need a plan and need to follow a proven system. If you want to maximize your chances of winning a fantasy baseball title in 2016, play SMART and follow the Rules of Engagement. After all, channeling Tom Skerritt’s “Viper,” those rules exist for your safety and the safety of your fantasy baseball team.

S = Scarcity

Each year, different positions in different formats are scarce. The first step is to identify those scarce positions and adjust the prices that you pay for quality players at those positions. By successfully rostering a top-flight producer at a scarce position you gain an immediate advantage over your opponents and avoid bottom feeding in the waiver trough trying to find someone to give you anything at that weak position.

Warning: paying for scarcity does not mean paying for mediocrity.

Rather, it means paying a scarcity premium for top quality players or proven performers. Worst kept secret alert: I still believe Robinson Cano is the safest bet at 2B and well worth a premium. Yes, he had a bad first half in 2015 but overall, .287, 21 dingers, and 79 RBI are pretty good. Of course, that second half of .331, 15 homers and 49 RBI show Robbie is still the class of the position. Oh, and do not forget that he has had 595 at-bats or more for nine straight years. That means that with Robbie at 2B, you will not be forced to hold your nose and play Munenori Kawasaki for weeks on end hoping for a random swipe while your team’s counting stats circle the drain. Arguments can be made for Jose Altuve but the reduced contact rate and increased strikeout rate have me a bit worried. Bottom line – irrespective of whether you like Cano, Altuve or even one trick pony Dee Gordon, scarcity matters – a lot.

M = Management

Management means managing not only the draft but the entire season. Draft management means religiously following the SMART system and the Rules of Engagement. Specifically, it is critical to have a plan and contingency plans. One should never be so surprised by the results of a draft or auction that you deviate from your plan or one of your contingency plans.

Management in-season means watching all the news and not being afraid to make a move if it will make your team better in the long run. Is it a surprise that Chris Liss ran away with Tout Wars AL after being clever enough to roster Carlos Correa before he was called up? I think not. Specific steps to take as part of in season management. (1) As Chris did, track prospects that may be coming up. (2) Search for spot starts for good teams and those in good parks against bad teams. (3) Find the vultures – watch who managers bring in when the game is tied as they will get cheap wins. (4) Spot playing time changes by tracking injuries/poor play. (5) Watch who your competitors cut and see if the advanced metrics portend a rebound (i.e., if a player is cut because his ERA is way above his norm yet his BABIP is inflated and strand rate suppressed, you may have a waiver wire opportunity).

A = Anchors

Before the draft identify and target specific starting pitchers who will give you production in the four non-save categories. In so doing, be especially careful that you WHIP protect as it is very hard to make up ground once many bad ratio innings are in the books. As a general rule, it is safer to make substantial investments in hurlers who throw hard. Simply put, those who throw gas get away will a lot more mistakes and are more likely to jump to their next level and thus yield a bargain. Remember, do not invest too much in pitchers who have only done it once or worse, not at all. How did it work out last year for those who invested in Yordano Ventura? Is it a huge surprise that the flamethrower struggled given that he had all of one year of success in the bigs? Anchor means a pitcher who is as sure of a thing as there is to start atop your rotation. Anchor doesn’t mean get the best pitcher in baseball as the cost is often way out of whack.

R = Relievers

Get a steady/solid closer on a good team that throws hard. I know that many say do not pay for saves. They choose not to play SMART at their own risk. Pay for your one save guy and then speculate after that. Make sure that you have at least two other relief pitchers that either get saves or are second in line – preferably on teams with shaky closers. Much can and will still happen but at the time of this writing, teams like the Padres, Phillies and Mariners all seem ready to go with unproven or questionable closers. This presents opportunities for the next man up on those teams. Grab one or two cheap.

T = Team

A very important part of the SMART system is to make sure that when in doubt, pick the player from a better team. Good teams score more runs making it easier for hitters to get RBI/runs. Good teams also provide more opportunity for pitchers to get wins/saves. Plus, players on good teams do not get traded in July to be backups or set up men in July.

The Rules of Engagement

No rule is absolute but these will help in staying focused and making good decisions at the draft and all year long.

Age Matters: When looking at your big money selections, pay for players in their prime (loosely defined as 26-32) with a proven track record. Players without a track record may produce full value but why risk it? For your mid-range investments, focus on young players with decent baselines and more than 1,000 at-bats or 300 innings pitched but who have yet to reach full potential. Those players made the majors at a very young age precisely because they are that talented. Once they have the experience to go with that talent, they often break out. Do not be that owner that misses Mike Moustakas’ breakout because you forgot he was still only 26. The Moose and his .284, 22 homers and 82 RBI present a classic example of the value to be had when following this rule of engagement. We paid only $10 in Tout Wars AL for that production.

Injuries Matter: Do not invest heavily in players who have undergone off-season surgery or who are oft-injured. Predicted medical recoveries do not always go according to plan. It may sound simple but never forget that injury prone players get injured. Note, this rule does not say do not draft such players at all, it simply means do not pay full price. For example, if you think a healthy Troy Tulowitzki is worth $36, do not pay $36 but be prepared to pounce at $24. At that price, you have serious profit potential and only need him healthy and productive for 2/3 of the season to come out even. Let’s stick with the Tulo example. If you paid $36 you were sorely disappointed in his 17 HR and 70 RBI. However, if you held firm on the necessary discount and ended up paying $24, the production you got was right in line. As the Wolfman says, “hope is not a management strategy.” Hoping that 2016 is the year Tulo or Anthony Rendon stay healthy all year means you will more likely than not be preparing for your fantasy football draft before July 4 rolls around.

Big Money Free Agent Signings Matter: Do not pay big bucks for free agents who signed big money deals to play in a new city. Adjustments (to a new city, new teammates, new place to live, etc.) take a couple of months or more and as a result, year-long stats suffer. Is it really a surprise that the Kung Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval, struggled in year one in Boston (hitting .040 points below his career average)? No. That said, please note that the same rule as above applies. Be ready to pounce at a discount on the big money free agents such as Jason Heyward, just do not pay full freight.

Throwing Gas Matters: Do not invest anything but late round picks or small dollars in Kyle Lohse types (sorry to pick on you Kyle). Hard throwers are more consistent roto performers and easier to track. Plus strikeouts come from hard throwers with late movement so a hard thrower is much more likely to become a K-pitcher and one less reliant on his fielders.

Upside Matters: All late-round picks and low dollar amount players should be those with upside and not aging veterans that you could write down their max stats now.

Hype Matters: Do not pay full value for predicted but as yet realized upside – instead pay for baseline performance with the indicators of a breakout.

Protection Matters – Ratio Protection That Is: In the average categories (BA, WHIP, ERA and if you play OPS, OBP), do not take any players at high values that will cripple your ratios. There is always another player there.

Home Park Matters: You need to get a discount on Coor’s Field Pitchers and PetCo Hitters. Look at Ballpark Ratings for other examples.

Speed Matters: Take one trick pony speed only guys if you get a huge discount. It is better to fill your roster with players who run some so that you have a balanced approach to speed and do not become reliant on one player (usually one who does not help in other categories). 

  • : The SMART system and the Rules of Engagement will not guarantee you a fantasy baseball title. What they will do is provide critical structure to your draft preparation, actual drafting, trading and in-season management. What the SMART system and Rules of Engagement will do is give you the best chance to be celebrating with a Yoo-Hoo shower this October!