The mystery that is Jay Bruce highlights this Week’s Week That Was

Jay BruceJay Bruce finally had a productive game for fantasy owners as he went 2-4 with a home run Saturday.  So, is this a coming out party for a guy who was the model of consistency for years at a very young age or just a mirage worthy of a thirsty fantasy owner wandering through the desert of disappointment?  Color me an optimist but I still believe.  First, Bruce is only 28 and has six 20+ HR seasons under his belt already as well as three 30+ campaigns.  Moreover, his 2015 BABIP is a paltry.197 – almost a 100 point decrease from his career number of .293. What does that tell you – bad luck! Also, I am reassured by the increase in his BB rate this year (over 12% thus far) which means he is seeing the ball well.  I am also buoyed by the fact that his GB and FB percentages this year are right in line with his productive year that preceded 2014’s injury-marred campaign.  Oh, and I do like the fact that in six weeks, Bruce has yet to hit an automatic out in the form of an infield popout.  Buy low while you still can!  [Author’s Note:  I wrote this piece of the article before Sunday’s big day.  You will just have to believe me.]

Chase Headley:   Speaking of potential buy low candidates, Chase Headley hit a big three run jack Saturday to help the Yankees break their losing streak.  Like Bruce, Headley has been a major downer for his fantasy owners.  On the year, he has just 5 dingers (half of the amount stroked by ARod) and is hitting a weak .228.  I believed in Headley at the beginning of the year and still do.  Yes, I am a Yankee homer but bear with me a minute.  Some reasons for optimism include his low BABIP (65 points below his career average), his line drive percentage this year is a lofty 27%, and with ARod destined for solely DH duty Chase will be given every opportunity to hit his way back to productivity.  I am buying. 

Starling Marte:   Starling Marte had a very good game yesterday going 3-4 and adding a swipe.  I use this little note to reemphasize a critical fantasy lesson.  Marte entered the year as a 26 year old who already had logged over 1000 AB in the majors and had already posted two very productive seasons – precisely the prescription for someone with a low floor, room for growth and a high ceiling.  Rick Wolf, Stacie Stern and I took some grief for going into the $30’s for Marte in LABR NL.  So far, we are more than pleased -- Marte has 8 HR, 25 RBI, 6 SB and a cool .298 batting average.  The Rules of Engagement said to make Marte a target.  The Rules of Engagement are your friend if you use them properly.    

 

Eduardo Escobar:  Eduardo Escobar was on fire Saturday as he went 4-4 with a run and rbi.  Talk about a guy who has flown under the radar!  In just 99 AB, the multi-positional 26 year old has scored 11 runs and knocked in 16 – great AL-only production for a guy who you can still probably pick up for pocket lint tonight in FAAB.  The real question is whether Escobar will play enough and well enough to continue to add value.  I think so.  First, it is very valuable to have a guy eligible at so many positions (OF, 2b, SS as of now and could add more soon).  Second, the other EE is only 26 but already has over 800 ABs in the big leagues.  Third, the Twins OF and SS position are very fluid – a situation that offers PT for EE.  This is exactly the type of end of the roster guy that makes all the difference in deep leagues.

Charlie MortonCharlie Morton should rejoin the Pirates rotation in the coming week.  Morton came back too fast from his hip surgery and got cuffed up pretty good this spring.  Do not let those outliers fool you.  If he is ready this time (and you would hope the Pirates would not make the same mistake twice), Morton should provide a lot of value.  Why you ask?  Good question.  First, Morton has had GB rates of between 56 and 63% over the last four years.  Second, he has shown good control as the first pitch strike percentage around 60% shows.  Third, he plays for a good team with a great pitching coach.  In all, this is a guy who could fly under the radar – that is, unless you are a reader of Fantasy Alarm!   

 

Joe Blanton.“Officer” Joe Blanton is back.  The Royals added Blanton to their pen Saturday.  I know this is not the biggest story in the world but humor me for a second.  The Royals have Chris Young in the rotation.  How long will that last?  Even if there is no room in KC, so many teams have a need for starters that there is sure to be a market somewhere.  So, the question is can Officer Joe still command?  Back in his last big league year of 2013, Blanton had an ugly 6.02 ERA.  However, his xFIP was only 3.83.  The .360 BABIP and 66% strand rate surely had something to do with that.  Ok, that was 2013.  What about now?  Honestly, I do not know but I do think he is a good AL only stash if you can stash him on reserve and see how it plays out.

Melvin Upton, Jr.Melvin Upton, Jr. is on rehab assignment.  I know that hardly seems like big news.  However, before you dismiss it, stop and think for a minute.  The Padres defense would be so much better with Melvin in CF between brother Justin and Matt Kemp.  So the question is whether Yonder Alonso, once healthy, adds so much to the offense that it justifies the defense hit.  My gut says that it does not.  Moreover, I think new Padre management will be motivated to show that taking on Melvin was not just a salary deal.  If nothing else, Melvin will likely be a decent source of speed in the second half.  Think about it. 

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “Patience is an extremely underrated roto-virtue. We all want the rookie called up in May to immediately become the Troutian Savior of our Season. If we make trades, we want the players sent away to take historically significant swan dives while expecting the underperforming players we got in return to channel the ghosts of Babe Ruth and Walter Johnson. Unfortunately, roto-baseball never seems to play out as we hope and expect. While existentially gratifying to mollify your inner Steinbrenner by cutting Mat Latos after he, once again, gets shellacked by the Braves or waive Chris Carter after his latest Golden Sombrero, it's an extremely unwise roto-tactic.

Long time readers of this column know that dating back to the other site that used to host this column (I can't remember its name but I believe they have some sort of doppelganger version of The Week That Was), Schultz has touted Jason Kipnis as the ne plus ultra of roto-second basemen. Over the last couple years, Kipnis hasn't done much to make Schultz seem all that prescient, putting Schultz' sagacity in question. (It's an all-thesaurus addition of Schultz Says this week). However, wise observers of the game (or Indians fans) have realized that Kipnis' troubles are directly proportionate to his wrist and back injuries. For the first time in many, many months, the Tribe's all-world 2B is healthy and his numbers bear this out. In May alone, Kipnis is hitting .517 (that it not a typo) and slugging at an .833 clip. Unless you already made your move for him while he struggled in April, there's no chance getting him now - his current owner is probably neck deep in roto-love.

Patience should also come into play for Yasmany Tomas, the 24-year-old Cuban sensation that is most well-known for not immediately becoming the West coast version of Jose Abreu. Perhaps expecting too much too soon , the DBacks unwisely rushed to install Tomas at third base, a position with which he was predominantly unfamiliar, adding that to the number of the adaptations the Cuban emigre would be making to life in the USA. Unsurprisingly, Tomas' early struggles continued into the regular season. With the immediate pressure gone, Tomas has started to find his niche at 3B with Jake Lamb on the DL and he seems to be finding his power stroke. There's a lot of roto-value to be derived from Tomas - just stay patient.”

Response: As he approaches middle age, Schultz indeed is getting wiser!