Baseball is finally here! All the mocks are done! All the drafts are in the books! All the auctions are completed! Now it is time to bear down and manage. As I have done since the 2003 season, each week, I will look back at events of the past week and try and give you some insight into their effects going forward. Now without further delay, some news from the week that was.
Justin Verlander: Justin Verlander has avoided the DL – for now. According to reports the Tigers will wait until Tuesday to make a decision as to whether to DL him at all. Yes, this is annoying for those (like the Colton and the Wolfman team in Tout Wars) who own Verlander and do not have the option of putting him on the DL to free up roster space. However, if you bought Verlander over the last month you did so for a reason and that reason has not evaporated. If do not own Verlander, consider this a buy low opportunity. Sure, the 4.54 ERA, reduced K rate and reduced velocity all amount to negative news. However, despite the 2014 core surgery and lack of a normal workout off season workout regimen, the velocity was still over 92 and the K rate was still close to 7 per 9. When you add in the fact that Verlander was a bit unlucky as shown by his 68% strand rate, has a much better SS to gobble up grounders now that Iglesias is back and posted a FIP of 3.74 (well below that 4.54 ERA), you have some reasons for optimism. Will he be MVP caliber? Probably not. Will he outproduce his bargain basement price tag? I think so and have invested accordingly.
Josh Tomlin: The Indians lost another starter as Josh Tomlin will now miss three to four months after having surgery on his shoulder. Of course, this is bad news for Tomlin, the Indians and Tomlin fantasy owners. However, there is a silver lining. If you own T.J. House or Zach McAllister, your guy will get a longer leash with Tomlin not ready to step up. House with his all-world GB rate and two pitches that generate lots of swings and misses and Zach with his increased velocity both make intriguing deep AL only targets. Their value just nudged up a bit further. Of course, loyal readers know I am all in on House this year.
David Buchanan: Sticking with the deep leagues but shifting over to the NL, the Phillies have awarded David Buchanan a rotation spot after his strong spring. Of course, spring stats mean little once the games that count start. So, what can one expect from Buchanan? Well, the good news is that Buchanan put up a strong 50+% GB rate in 2014. The bad news is that he strikes out very few, gets very few swings and misses, pitches for a bad team in a hitters’ park, doesn’t throw particularly hard and his FIP says his ERA was a bit deflated. Bottom line, until he proves more, I am only starting Buchanan in starts against weak division rivals such as Atlanta.
Coco Crisp: Coco Crisp is on the DL and according to most reports will not be ready to return until mid to late May. Well, if you drafted Coco relying on him staying healthy all year at 35, you failed to follow the Rules of Engagement (i.e., injury prone and older players get injured more often). Stated another way, it really should not have been a surprise that Crisp – a player who has not reached 550 AB in a decade – will miss substantial time. What the Crisp injury (together with the Reddick injury) does do is it opens playing time for Craig Gentry and Billy Burns. Either or both of these speedsters can provide substantial early season value in deeper leagues.
Masahiro Tanaka: Masahiro Tanaka says he has added a sinker to his arsenal for this season. This IS interesting. Why you ask? Well, I will tell you. Tanaka managed his success last year despite posting a GB% of 46 – not much above the league average 44. If Tanaka can keep the ball on the ground more, it will leave the yard more often – always a big risk in his home park of Yankee Stadium as well as most of the other AL east parks (Fenway, Camden, Rogers). Yeah, I know that none of this tells us whether his UCL will hold up but nothing and no one can tell you that. This news does make me nudge him up slightly if one of my leaguemates puts Tanaka on the block.
Vance Worley: With word that Charlie Morton will start the year on the DL, fantasy baseball fans can rejoice in the return of Vance Worley to the starting rotation. Ok, that is a little over the top. However, Worley is not someone to dismiss so fast. Those in deep leagues should focus on the fact that Worley posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while walking fewer than two per nine innings in his half season under the tutelage of Ray Searage in Pittsburgh. With his spot on control, above average GB rate and a good defense both behind him and behind the plate, Worley is a good bet to repeat 2014. Now he has the chance.
Yasmany Tomas: The DBacks have sent their expensive off season acquisition from Cuba down to AAA to play the outfield every day. This has quite a few fantasy effects. First, owners must get Tomas out of their lineups. Second, Jake Lamb becomes the 3B. Yes, he had a hot spring, hitting .364 but he is not someone on whom you should blow a lot of FAAB. Lamb hit just .230 in his debut with the DBacks (with an OBP below .270) and basically skipped AAA. Third and most interestingly, with Tomas at AAA, there will be more opportunity for both David Peralta and Ender Inciarte to find playing time. Peralta hit .286 with 9 HR and 6 SB in half a season in the show while Inciarte hit .278 with 19 SB in his 400 AB debut. Both make fine late round or waiver wire pickups for those in deeper leagues.
Now, go enjoy some baseball that counts!