The Week That Was: ADP & Bargains from NFBC

I love fantasy baseball draft season.  It is just so much fun to spend the day driving through heavy snow on the way to this spring rite of passage.  Wait what!?!?  Spring snowstorms?  More than one spring snowstorm?!?  Yep, for the second time in as many weeks, I rode through the snow on the way to my fantasy baseball draft.  It is just not right, but enough whining right?  Ok, on to the matters at hand . . . .  Yesterday, with the Wolfman’s permission, I committed “rotodultery” and partnered up not with the Wolfman but with ESPN’s Nate Ravitz in search our first NFBC Main Event title.  Despite the sleet and snow, I think we did pretty well.  Judge for yourself:   

Joe Mauer:  (Round 17, Pick 247, ADP 245).  Joe Mauer in round 17?  Wow, how the mighty have fallen.  Based on ADP, we did not get a bargain.  However, one must never forget roster construction.  We needed batting average and upside and Mauer provides both.  Last year was the only year in 10 in which Mauer hit below .294 (and most years he hit well above .300).  At age 31 and in year two of playing 1B full time, I have little doubt Mauer will hit .294+ for the 10^th time.  Given the high upside and high floor, I would take him in round 17 every time.    Overall, I like this team.  The pitching is strong, there is more than enough power, Cano and Mauer should make up for any batting average ills and Revere and Segura should carry the speed torch.  While many are obsessing over the early rounds, I think you all have read more than enough about Kershaw, Trout and the like.  So, I will not follow suit.  Rather, I offer here some interesting picks from the second half of the draft and more importantly some thoughts on why we made those picks and why you should too:

Kendrys Morales:  (Round 22, Pick 323, ADP 322).  This is the fourth league in which I rostered Morales (the only one I am in so far where I do not own him is NL only!)  The only explanation for Morales’s incredibly low ADP and the incredibly cheap price at which he was acquired is the so-called recency bias.  People need to get over it!  Last year was an oddball in which Morales did not have a team until June, did not have spring training or any ability to get game ready and ended up playing for a woeful offensive squad in Minnesota.  This year, Morales is firmly entrenched in a great situation – the DH in KC.  Yeah, I know he was bad last year but in round 22, I will gladly take a guy who hit 90 dingers with an average around .285 in the four years from 2009-13 and is still only 31 years old (he missed one of those years completely after the freak HR celebration injury).   Bargain alert!     

Dan Haren:  (Round 24, Pick 353, ADP 376).  Yes, he now throws in the 80’s.  Yes, he made noises about refusing to pitch in Florida.  However, he will pitch in Florida and has the benefit of not only that big park but of a full 54 games (that is 1/3 of the season) facing the anemic Braves, Phillies and Mets.  He will not be a Kluber-like breakout sensation but how many guys have posted a WHIP below 1.30 and a K/BB above 3.0 every year for 10 straight years?  Not many I am sure.       

Kyle Gibson: (Round 25, Pick 367, ADP 451).  Gibson is the classic example of why one must get beyond the surface stats.  On the surface, you would run for the hills from his 4.47 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 5.37 K/9.  However, when you look deeper, you see a pitcher who was very unlucky stranding only 65% of baserunners, who posted a FIP of 3.86 (over half of a run below his ERA), induced GB at an elite 54..4% clip (around 44 is average); posted a 3.76 xFIP in the second half and who increased his K rate by 1/3 from the first to second halves.  Oh, and Gibson will be going into the growth “2^nd year post TJS” year in 2015.  Jump the ADP and roster the Twins hurler.     

Chase Anderson:  (Round 26, Pick 383, ADP 425):  Like Gibson, Anderson is a lesson in needing to dig deeper.  On the surface, the year-long 2014 stats of an ERA above 4.00 and a 1.37 WHIP will not excite anyone.  However, digging deeper you will find a 9.6% swinging strike rate (pretty much elite), a 63+% first pitch strike rate (well above average), an xFIP of 3.67 (well below the 4+ ERA) and a second half K rate of almost a batter per inning.  I like this late round owner of a wicked change up that reduced his line drive rate dramatically in the second half.   

Evan Marshall: (Round 29, Pick 427, ADP 512).  Do you believe in incumbent DBack closer Addison Reed?  I do not.  Reed has had shoulder trouble this spring and may or may not be ready for opening day.  However, even if ready, does a closer who has never had an ERA under 3.60, whose fastball velocity has decreased four years running (despite being only 26), and who despite throwing right-handed, gave up dingers to righties once every 14 AB really inspire confidence?  Umm, no.  Marshall on the other hand averaged 94 MPH on his fastball last year, struck out more than a batter per inning and when he did allow contact, induced groundballs at a truly elite 60+% level (groundballs of course rarely leave the yard).  Cheap closer?  Good chance!

One never knows how a season will come out but I like the team and really like the late round bargains. 

The Draft Guide is here!  If you want a real shot at winning your league, DO IT NOW!