The Week That Was:  The LABR Mixed Draft and ADPs (Part II)

Last week, I took a look at some players who were drafted well away from their ADPs in the LABR mixed league expert draft and offered some thoughts on whether to follow the experts’ lead (if you missed that column, have no fear, here it is: http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/colton/19943/the-week-that-was-the-labr-mixed-draft-and-adps/).  Because of the positive reactions on twitter and elsewhere, I go back to the well and take a look at some other interesting ADP-related anomalies from LABR mixed in this week’s Week That Was.

Drew Smyly: (LABR 148; ADP 177).  To start on a positive note, I think the tandem of Jason Collette and Paul Sporer were smart to jump up two rounds over ADP to grab the Ray hurler.  After coming over from the Tigers in the David Price deal, Smyly arguably outpitched the former Cy Young winner by posting a 1.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 4/1 K/BB in 47+ innings of work.  Oh, his overall 3.24 ERA and 1.16 WHIP was nothing to sneeze at either.  Ordinarily, I do not love younger pitchers who barely average 90 MPH on their heaters but Smyly is not yet 26, has 300+ MLB innings under his belt, has proven he can get guys out and now calls a very good pitchers’ park home.  His ADP should rise this spring.

Brandon McCarthy: (LABR 207; ADP 262).  My friend and former football teammate Rudy Gamble did a nice job here jumping up 4.5 rounds to get McCarthy.  Rudy was smart enough to realize that McCarthy’s overall numbers hide the effectiveness he showed once he escaped Arizona’s hitter haven.  In Arizona, Brandon had a 5+ ERA but in New York, he posted an ERA under 3.00 over his 90 innings.  I think the ADP will follow Rudy’s lead this spring as people realize McCarthy will be pitching in a better park and for a better team than the DBacks (LAD) and when they realize that he added 2 MPH to his fastball.  Oh, for you true stat heads, McCarthy’s xFIP in NY supports his results so the move to LA can only make things better.  Buy!     

Billy Butler:  (LABR 212; ADP 248).  Hmmm, I do not think I would have jumped up 2+ rounds to get Butler.  Of course, Fred Zinkie is one heck of a fantasy baseball player so you never know.  For me, I am worried about the serious decline the numbers show.  9 dingers, no SB and a .271 average do not get the job done at 1B.  He also showed far less patience as his BB rate dropped from a solid 11.8% to just 6.8%.  Finally, while KC is hardly a hitters’ paradise, it is a far better place to hit than Oakland.  I would not be surprised to see Butler’s ADP stay below where Fred grabbed him.

Alexei Ramirez: (LABR 77; ADP 96).  Rotowire’s Bobby Colton jumped up about 1.5 rounds to get the Chisox SS.  If you look at the LABR draft board (http://www.rtsports.com/LABR-Mixed-Draft), you will see that this pick was a good one based on context and team composition.  Bobby needed speed as he had none over his first 5 picks (Bautista, Cano, Darvish, Cueto, Holliday) and needed a SS as a bunch were off the board already and Bobby, picking from the 14 hole, would not get another pick for a long, long time.  I do not see Alexei jumping up this high generally but given the weakness and unpredictability in the middle infield, there is a lot to be said for a guy who has averaged 10 HR, 20+ SB and approximately 80 runs and 60 RBI over the last three years.    

Brandon Moss: (LABR 109; ADP 163).   The Rules of Engagement say not to pay full value for players coming off of injury.  Thus, team Colton and the Wolfman (Rick Wolf, Stacie Stern and I) would not have jumped the ADP by almost 4 rounds to nab the newest Indian slugger.  Yes, IF and it is a big IF, Moss is fully healed from hip surgery, the dingers should come early and often.  However, 4 HR and a 31% K rate in the second half scares me.  After all, even at full health, he is likely to sit against at least some lefties and has had a contact rate under 70% in each of the last four years.  I would not expect the ADP to follow LABR’s Jake Ciely and chase Moss up the draft board this high.

Alex Rios: (LABR 157; ADP 185).   Frankly, I am surprised that Rios has an ADP so low (round 16 in 15 teamers).   Full disclosure -- team Colton and the Wolfman tabbed Rios with pick 170 in the FSTA draft so we think he should be going higher than his ADP.  Indeed we think he should be going closer to where Keith Hernandez nabbed him in LABR.  As I wrote last month, “Alex has stolen 82 bases over the last three years and will play for a team known to give the green light.  I am confident in around 25 SB.  The real issue is whether the power will return.  4 HR simply will not cut it.  If Rios is healthy again, he should hit 17-20 dingers.  Even if the power outage continues, this pick was worth it because the batting average has been stable -- .275 or more in four of the last 5 years – and the contact rate supports that average.  Low downside, high upside equals solid mid-round pick.”  Expect the ADP to follow what happened in FSTA and LABR. 

Gio Gonzalez: (LABR 147; ADP 125).   Why Gio got no love in the LABR draft puzzles me.  Expect the LABR drop of 1.5 rounds to be an outlier.  Last month at FSTA, we grabbed Gio right around his ADP at 128.  Our reasoning then still applies after Mad Max signed with the Nats: “Yes, he had a bit of a shoulder issue but he made all 5 September starts and went at least 6 in each of them while posting a K per inning and a .80 WHIP.  Gio is in his prime, pitches in a pitcher’s park in weak division and should produce another solid season on the bump.”

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