Below are NHL DFS series previews for the Pittsburgh-Washington and San Jose-Vegas matchups. Thomas Vecchio will preview the other two matchups for you on Friday.
Pittsburgh (2) vs. Washington (1)
Washington will have home field advantage in this series in which they try to excise the demon that Pittsburgh has been for them over the years. These teams split the regular season series 2-2 with each team winning one game at home and one on the road. The team that won the even strength possession battle won each game in the regular season.
Of all the teams left in the playoffs, these two probably have the shakiest goaltending situations, which could make this the most fantasy friendly series of the second round. Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray ranked 53rd out of 69 qualifying goalies in Goals Saved Above Average during the regular season. He was only slightly better in the first round with a .911 save percentage in six games. In the Caps net, Braden Holtby will get the call after winning four straight to close out Columbus. But Holtby did not start the first two games of that series due to poor regular season play that cost him the starting job to Phillip Grubauer. Holtby is unquestionably the hotter goalie, but his .907 SV% in the regular season (which was also Murray’s SV%) is still concerning.
When picking Capitals to roster, ideally, you want to pick skaters who will match up with Pittsburgh’s bottom six. But Washington was matching top six against top six at home against Columbus, and Pittsburgh did the same against Philly. As a result, you’ll have to roster bottom six Caps to pick skaters going against Pittsburgh’s bottom six. The third line pair of Lars Eller and Brett Connolly are the only bottom six players that see power play work for the Caps, so they’re the best depth option.
Of Pittsburgh’s top six, the Evgeni Malkin line is a slightly better matchup for opposing skaters than Sidney Crosby’s line. Both teams were going L1 vs. L1 and L2 vs. L2 in the first round, so it’s Nicklas Backstrom’s line that should see the most of the Malkin line. Both Backstrom and winger T.J. Oshie play on the top PP unit, so they’ll be a good mini-stack option.
The elephant in the room here is Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin is going to see heavy ownership given the short slates at this point in the playoffs. It’s probably a good rule of thumb to roster him if you can afford it in cash games and fade him in GPPs unless you just don’t have anywhere else you want to spend your money. If you can’t afford him cash games, Evgeny Kuznetsov is slightly cheaper and plays with Ovi in all situations, and Tom Wilson, who is the third member of the top line, is a salary relief option.
Washington defensemen options are John Carlson who plays on the top PP unit and tends to skate with Backstrom’s line most at even. Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen play together at even strength, most often with Ovechkin’s line, and they stay together on the second PP unit.
Picking Penguins is a bit easier. Backstrom’s line is easily the toughest matchup for opposing skaters, and Malkin’s line (or whoever centers the second line if Malkin remains injured) figures to draw that matchup most often. That means Sidney Crosby’s line is the best option. Jake Guentzle plays on Crosby’s left and gets PP1 work whenever Malkin or Patric Hornqvist are hurt. Malkin has been ruled out for Game 1. The right wing slot on Crosby’s line is a bit of a revolving door, so keep an eye out for line changes as the series goes on.
Pittsburgh’s third line is also in play and will make for a salary relief option. Derrick Brassard and Conor Sheary are the main stays on that line, and they work together on the second PP unit, though the second unit hasn’t seen much work in the playoffs. When everyone is healthy, Phil Kessel also plays on the third line. He sees work on the top PP unit and will potentially see a lot of Washington’s bottom six, so he’s a name to consider.
On the blue line, Justin Schultz and Kris Letang are the D-men who see PP work. Schultz had been seeing a bit more PP work with the top unit at the end of the regular season, but Letang saw more PP work in the final game against Philly. Letang tends to skate with Crosby’s line at even strength while Schultz skates with Malkin’s line.
San Jose (3) vs. Vegas (1)
Vegas won the season series against the Sharks 3-1, winning both games in Vegas and dropping one on the road. When you just look at the possession game, the teams “split” the season series with San Jose arguably being the better team in one of their losses to Vegas.
Both teams swept their opponents in the first round, so they should be well rested. These two teams also have the two hottest goalies in the league right now as both Marc-Andre Fleury and Martin Jones posted save percentages of .970 or better in the first round, which are the two highest marks of among goalies that have played more than one game. This series figures to be far less fantasy friendly than the Eastern Conference matchup discussed above, though the goalies should be solid plays.
In games played in Vegas, expect lines to be matched up evenly with William Karlsson’s line taking Joe Pavelski’s line, Erik Haula’s line taking Logan Couture’s line, and the bottom sixes facing off. The matchups should be a little different when the series switches to San Jose. Couture’s line tends to take the opposing top line in home games, so he should see Karlsson’s line at home with Pavelski’s line taking on Haula’s line and the bottom sixes still facing each other.
There’s not a ton of difference between Vegas’ top lines in terms of what kind of fantasy matchup they are for opposing skaters. However, Karlsson’s line was better in the first round and had the tougher matchup against Anze Kopitar’s line, so that’s the line to avoid when pick Sharks. That means Couture’s line is the better play on the road and Pavelski’s line is the better play in San Jose.
The only bottom six Sharks that see power play work are Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc, but they don’t play on the same PP unit. Labanc played on the top PP unit in round one, which makes him the more appealing salary relief option. But if Joe Thornton makes it back during this series, Labanc would move back to the second unit and he and Meier would be a more appealing mini-stack assuming Meier doesn’t stop getting PP work in that scenario.
On the blue line, Brent Burns is always an option if you can afford him. He shoots a ton, blocks plenty of shots and chews up minutes at even strength and on the power play. Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays on the second PP unit and is a viable value option at D.
When picking Golden Knights, the matchup to pick on is the Couture line. That means Haula’s line should have the better matchup in home games, and Karlsson’s line should have the better of it on the road. The entire top line stays together on the top PP unit, which adds to their stack appeal. Vegas’ second line for most of the season was Haula, James Neal and David Perron, but Alex Tuch has displaced Perron for now. Tuch plays up with the top PP unit and is always priced very well on FD, so he’s an option to get exposure to both lines, for now anyway. But if Perron ends up back on the second line, that line will be stack-able as well.
Vegas doesn’t have the most appealing blue liners from a fantasy perspective. But Shea Theodore and Nate Schmidt are their D-men who see PP work, Theodore with the top line and Schmidt with the second line. They’re viable options to add to a Vegas stack.