Below are game breakdowns for the two games on Monday’s NHL DFS slate.
BOS @ TOR
Boston leads the series 3-2 and is a -130-road favorite in Toronto tonight. The teams split the two previous games in Toronto, but there’s a case to be made Toronto had the better of the play at home. They won Game 3 four to two with a higher share of the scoring chances at even strength (all even strength number mentioned are score and venue adjusted). In their Game 4 loss Toronto dominated the possession metrics with a higher percentage in Corsi, Fenwick, shots and scoring chances.
In cash games you’ll probably want some kind of exposure to Boston’s top line simply because they’re the bigger of the two favorites tonight, and that line is the best collection of talent on any of the four teams playing tonight. But their third line is an interesting play that is surely to be lower owned.
In Game 3 Boston’s third was their best possession line, and they matched up with Tyler Bozak’s line, which was Toronto’s worst possession trio in the two Boston games. With Nazem Kadri back in the lineup, Kadri and Tomas Plekanec’s lines are likely to see Boston’s top six, so Boston’s third should see Toronto’s bottom six, which should include some of Bozak’s line. David Backes is the only member of that line who sees PP work. But they play with the Zdeno Chara/Charlie McAvoy D-pair at even strength, and McAvoy joins Backes on the second PP unit.
For the Leafs, we’re leaning towards the Auston Matthews line. The entire team was on the plus side of the possession ledger in Game 4, but in Game 3, when the team-wide possession metrics were near even, Matthews’ line was Toronto’s best possession-wise.
Matthews will almost certainly have Zach Hyman on his wing, and Hyman joins him on the second unit. William Nylander has been on that line most of this season but wasn’t the last game. He does join Matthews on the second PP unit, so he’s still worth considering. The best thing about Matthews’ line is that they’ll almost certainly avoid matching up with Boston’s top line. Also joining them on the second line is Jake Gardiner, who skates with Matthews’s line the most at even.
As for the goalies, Tuukka Rask makes sense as a cash game play given that Boston is the only clear favorite of the night with the other game being damn near even money. That said, Rask has been shaky with a .904 SV% in the series. Frederik Andersen has enough upside to be interesting as an underdog. He has seen 153 shots in five games, and he was pulled in a game and none of the games have been to overtime. If the Leafs win this game, it’s a safe bet that Andersen will have 30+ goals.
WAS @ CLS
As mentioned above, this game is damn near even money. It opened at even money, but as of this writing, the Caps are a slight road favorite. This game is even money for good reason. In Game 3 in Columbus, Washington was the better team by all possession metrics, and in Game 4 the Jackets only had a slight advantage in the possession metrics. But while the Caps may have the advantage with their skaters, you still have to give the edge in net to Columbus. Sure, Braden Holtby has played well since taking over for Phillip Grubauer in Game 3, but he’s still the guy who had a .907 SV% in the regular season. Sergei Bobrovsky, on the other hand, finished seventh out of 69 qualifying goalies in Goals Saved Above Average in the regular season.
In Game 4, when the Jackets didn’t get throttled in the possession game, their first and their fourth lines were their best possession lines. Their fourth was winning the battle against Washington’s depth lines, but the top line won the possession battle against Washington’s top six.
Washington’s top line along with their top D pair, who plays with the top line the most at even strength in home games, collectively accounted for 43.1 percent of Columbus’ points during the regular season. Defenseman Seth Jones also joins the entire top line on the top PP unit, so this is a team with top-heavy scoring that tends to put its best players on the ice together as much as possible during all situations. If you want to go with Jackets tonight, it’s hard to go anywhere else.
If you want a cheaper option from the Jackets, Matt Calvert has come up big with three goals in the series. He was also a plus possession player in each of the two previous games in Columbus and was Columbus’ only plus possession player in Game 3.
Although Columbus’ top line was plus in the possession game in Game 4 playing against Washington’s top six, Washington’s top line was also plus in the possession game because CBJ1 split time roughly evenly between WSH1 and WSH2. Nicklas Backstrom’s second line isn’t as good possession-wise without Andre Burakovsky (who is out for the remainder of the series), and CBJ1 did most of their possession damage against that line rather than Evgeny Kuznetsov’s line.
Kuznetsov’s line, with Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson on the wings, has a combined 15 points through five games. Ovechkin always sees high ownership on short slates, so it would not be a bad idea to have exposure to him in cash games. Kuznetsov and Ovechkin play on the top PP unit together as well, so they’re an expensive mini-stack option. Wilson doesn’t see PP work, but stacking him with Ovi offers some savings.
On the blue line, John Carlson is an option as the D-man on the top PP unit. Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen are also options as that’s the pair that plays with the Kuznetsov lie at even strength. That pair also stays together on the second PP unit.
In net, Braden Holtby is honestly hard to trust even though he’s won three straight games for the Caps. Again, he was completely unreliable in the regular season and lost his starting role to Grubauer. Bobrovsky is far easier to trust, and he has upside given that he has seen an average of 38.8 shots against so far in the series. To be fair, four of the five games have gone to overtime, which skews the shot statistics. But with this game being essentially even money, it would be no surprise if this game went to overtime as well.