Because players are overwhelmingly responsible for the outcomes of games compared to managers, we often have to look at how managers treat their entire roster to get an idea about their tendencies. But more recently in the Managerial Tendencies series we’ve been trying to narrow the focus and find instances of specific players being impacted by their manager.
We’ve talked about players who are performing well but being left out of the lineup too often. And we’ve talked about how the use of shifts may have impacted specific pitchers. Today we’ll look at individual players who aren’t being given the green light enough on the base paths.
Travis Shaw – Milwaukee Brewers
Let’s start off by saying that Craig Counsell is not a conservative manager on the base paths. The Brewers rank second in the league in stolen base attempts this season, and they have good reason to run a lot as they rank eighth in success rate. They have six guys who have already cracked double digit steals, and Shaw is close to becoming the seventh as he sits on nine steals.
But you can easily make a case that Counsell is being too conservative with Shaw on the base paths. As mentioned, Shaw has nine steals and he’s gotten those nine steals on only nine attempts. For his career, Shaw is 14 of 16 in stolen base attempts, which is a success rate of 87.5 percent. The six Brewers who already have double digit steals this season all have success rates somewhere in the seventies, so it’s unclear why Counsell is less aggressive with Shaw.
Shaw’s fantasy value is already significantly aided by his nine steals because corner infielders so rarely run. Only seven players whose primary position is on a corner have reached double digit steals so far this season. Shaw is poised to become the eighth corner guy in double digits, and if Counsell ever loosened the reins on him, he could be one of the few corner guys to reach 15 steals and flirt with 20. Keep that upside in mind going into next season.
Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians
After falling one steal short of 20 last season, Lindor is not anywhere near on pace to flirt with 20 steals again. It’s not as if Lindor has been less effective on the base paths this season, he just has not been given the same opportunities. He was 19 of 24 last season (79.2 percent) and is 10 for 12 this season (83.3 percent).
Unlike Shaw, Lindor is not being treated differently than his teammates as Terry Francona has been a bit more conservative than he needs to be this season. Cleveland ranks third in success rate, but they only rank 16th in attempts. In addition to Lindor there’s Carlos Santana who is five-for-five this season, and Michael Brantley only attempted a steal once every 31 plate appearances prior to injury despite being 11-for-12 in his attempts.
Francona has let Lindor run more in the second half, thankfully. Lindor only attempted five steals in the first half in 386 PA, but he already has seven attempts in 189 PA in the second half. If he keeps his second half pace up he should get to 14-15 steals on the season, which is a bit disappointing but not too damaging to owners who were counting on his speed when they drafted him.
Lorenzo Cain and Whit Merrifield – Kansas City Royals
Cain and Merrifield each have 20+ steals already this season and a combined 48 steals, so it may seem odd to complain about their numbers. But given how successful they have been when running, Ned Yost is being way too conservative with them. Each guy has a success rate of 92 percent or better this season which are the second and third best rates among guys with at least 10 attempts, yet they only rank eighth and 11th in stolen bases.
Yost’s team leads the league in success rate by more than a full percentage point with the only success rate in the league north of 80 percent. Despite that, they rank only 17th in stolen base attempts.
In addition to Cain and Merrifield having their upside capped by Yost’s conservatism, Eric Hosmer has been limited to only six attempts even though he has converted on all six. It’s been more than three seasons since Hosmer cracked double digits in steals and he has certainly been less successful in recent seasons. But given his history and his success this season, Yost should be giving him a few more opportunities now.
It’s certainly true that an increase in attempts would come with some level of corresponding decline in success rate for Cain and Merrifield. But their success rates are so high that they’d still likely be among the top 10 most successful base stealers in the league even if they ran a bit more often. Merrifield is on pace to only barely crack 30 steals, and Cain is on pace to fall just short of 30.
If Yost let them run as often as anyone other than the elite base stealers like Billy Hamilton, Trea Turner and Dee Gordon, they’d be running approximately once every 10-12 PA. Let’s conservatively say they attempted a steal once every 12 PA and their success rates fell to 83.3 percent each, which is the success rate of a large group of guys who closely trail BHam/Turner/Gordon in success rate. Were that the case, Cain would be on pace for 45 steals and Merrifield would be on pace for 42 steals.
Let ‘em run, Ned!