One topic we’ve touched on several times this season in the Managerial Tendencies series is how long managers let their starters stay in the game. We’ve mainly discussed the impact of a manager’s quick hook, or lack thereof, on starting pitchers. A quick hook can be good or bad for your starting pitcher depending on what it is your team needs. If you’re more concerned with ratio categories, a quick hook can be beneficial since your starter may not have to face an opposing lineup a third or fourth time. But if you’re looking for help in the counting categories, you’d prefer your starter stay on the mound longer.

To analyze whether managers are using their rotations properly, we’ve compared a rotation’s ERA and xFIP to their average number of pitches thrown per start. If a rotation has a high ERA and xFIP, it’s reasonable to expect that they will have a low average number of pitches thrown per start. If a rotation has a low ERA and xFIP, it’s reasonable to expect that their manager will leave them on the mound longer and that they will have a high average number of pitches thrown per start.

But the quality of the starting rotation is not the only consideration when a manager is considering going to the bullpen. The quality of the bullpen matters as well. A good example of this is the Detroit Tigers. The Detroit rotation ranks 16th in ERA and 20th in xFIP, yet they rank third in the average number of pitches thrown per start. Why is Brad Ausmus using his below average rotation so heavily? Well, it’s because Detroit’s bullpen ranks dead last in ERA and xFIP.

But are there situations where a manager is misusing his rotation when compared to his bullpen?

The best example of this is Rick Renteria and the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox rotation has the 12th highest average number of pitches thrown per start this year despite ranking 20th in ERA and 28th in xFIP. That discrepancy becomes even more egregious when you factor in that Chicago’s bullpen ranks seventh in ERA and 11th in xFIP.

Practically speaking, this means Chicago starters are riskier to use on a start-by-start basis if you’re looking for help in the ratio categories. This also makes Chicago better to target with opposing hitters. The season-long applicability of that is probably limited unless you’re in a daily roster set league without a transaction limit in which you can stream hitters. But for DFS players, Chicago is more appealing to target with a stack knowing that Renteria may leave a starter out there longer than he should before turning to an above average bullpen.

Another example is the Baltimore Orioles. Buck Showalter has allowed his rotation to average the sixth highest number of pitches thrown per start despite his rotation ranking 29th in ERA and 30th in xFIP. To be fair, Baltimore’s bullpen is also bad, but they’re not as bad as the rotation, ranking 16th in ERA and 28th in xFIP.

You can also throw the Red Sox into this grouping. John Farrell’s rotation ranks 14th in ERA and sixth in xFIP, while the bullpen ranks third in ERA and fifth in xFIP. Despite the bullpen being the better unit, their rotation has averaged the second highest number of pitches thrown per start.

It should be noted that there are practical reasons for managers not to go to their bullpen earlier and more often. Teams are trying to navigate at least 162 games and hopefully more, and not overtaxing a bullpen prior to October is a legitimate concern managers have. It’s just that our fantasy interests don’t align with a team’s goal of getting to and advancing in the postseason, and that discrepancy can provide some extra fantasy value to be exploited.

On the flip side, are there any teams that should be going to their bullpen less?

The best example of that is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins bullpen has recorded the fourth most outs per game even though they rank 28th in ERA and 29th in xFIP. In Paul Molitor’s defense, his rotation isn’t good either as they rank 21st in ERA and 27th in xFIP. If he left his starters in longer, their ERA and xFIP would likely rise as they faced more batters a third and fourth time through the lineup. But from the perspective of picking on the Twins pitching with bats, Molitor provides a bit more fantasy value to us by going to the pen perhaps a bit earlier than he should.

While we’re on the topic of reliever usage, let’s quickly switch gears and look at the closers that are being used most heavily this season.

Among the 22 relievers who have at least 10 saves this season and who currently hold a closer’s job, Seung Hwan Oh has the second highest number of pitches thrown and the third highest number of outs recorded per game. Trevor Rosenthal hasn’t been pitching so well lately that he’s pushing Oh for the closer job right now, but if Oh ends up being overworked later in the season, Rosenthal could be a candidate to take his job. Mike Matheny has been known to make a closing change in the past.

Of those same 22 closers, Corey Knebel and Addison Reed rank top two in both number of pitches thrown and number of appearances. Knebel has been excellent and is striking out more than 40 percent of batters faced, so you shouldn’t be looking to trade him. But Reed might be someone to consider moving if you’re doing alright in the saves category. Reed isn’t a huge strikeout arm that provides a huge amount of fantasy value outside of his saves total. Plus, Jeurys Familia is still on track to return this season, potentially by mid-August.