When assigned with writing about players entering a contract year, the initial reaction was that the “contract year” concept was nothing but a narrative. There are so many variables that factor into a player’s performance, and most of them, like actual physical abilities, teammates, and coaching scheme, are tangible to one degree or another. But the idea behind the contract year is some sort of immeasurable mental motivation.

Intuitively, the idea of a contract year makes sense to us. All of us want more money. We’ll work more hours, we’ll take on more responsibility at work, we’ll even work second jobs sometimes, all to make more money. It makes easy sense that athletes would put additional effort into performing well in the season immediately prior to becoming a free agent given that their performance in that season will have the largest impact on their next contract.

But we need more than a concept making intuitive sense as a basis for decisions. All kinds of intuitive concepts have been proven false across all sports in recent years as advanced metrics and different ways of thinking have infiltrated front offices. Here we’ll go position-by-position to see if there is any tangible reason to believe the contract year is a benefit to a player.

Quarterbacks

We lack a lot of examples of how quarterbacks perform in contract seasons simply because good quarterbacks are generally locked up long-term and rarely reach their contract years. As an example, the quarterbacks signed to the biggest free agent deals this offseason were Mike Glennon, Brian Hoyer and Nick Foles. Those three started a combined six games last season, and no fantasy owners gave a damn if they were in their contract year or not. The year prior it was Brock Osweiler who was playing for a contract. Talk about not giving a shit.

Perhaps the best examples we have from recent history are Kirk Cousins playing on the franchise tag last season and Alex Smith playing on an expiring deal back in 2011.

Cousins did improve in some areas last season such as an increase in yards per attempt from 2015 and approaching 5,000 yards passing. But his completion percentage dropped a few points, and the big yardage total can be attributed to a big increase in pass attempts. There’s also the matter of it simply being possible that whatever gains Cousins made last year were due to gaining experience as he had only started 25 games prior to last season.

As for Smith, he also made some improvements in his contract year such as a league leading interception rate of only 1.1 percent and averaging over seven yards per attempt for the first time. But Smith has made more progress in the years since with higher completion percentages and years with even higher Y/A marks. Experience can again be a possible explanation for Smith’s improvement as could a different scheme when he moved to Kansas City.

Unlike past seasons, we do have some legitimate fantasy options that are in a contract year this season with Cousins again playing on the tag and Matthew Stafford playing on an expiring deal. But there’s little to no history to support the contract year being a boon. If anything, the fact that good quarterbacks rarely play on one-year or expiring deals is arguably an indictment of Cousins and Stafford.

It is worth noting that the aging curves for quarterbacks show quarterbacks peaking in their late 20’s and starting to decline in their 30’s. This is notable because both Cousins and Stafford will be in their late 20’s this season. However, the trend of good quarterbacks tending to avoid contract years makes for a counterargument to the aging curve working in their favor.

Running Backs

If there is one position where targeting contract year players might be most viable, this is probably it. But the fact that it is a back’s contract year might be secondary to the fact that guys entering their contract year are simply at the age that places them at the peak of the running back aging curve. Different studies have found that backs peak between 23-25 and that their decline is sharp after 26.

Perhaps you could argue that backs peak in that age range in some part due to many of them having contract years in those seasons. But it’s much more plausible that they peak then simply because they’re at the right age to have a mix of experience and an odometer that hasn’t yet rolled up too high. So yes, feel free to target young running backs playing out the end of their first contract, but target them because of their age, not because of a hypothetical motivation to get paid.

There is a plethora of backs that fall in this age range who are going to be free agents (either restricted or unrestricted) after this season and who are seeking a long-term, post-rookie contract. Here is the list of fantasy relevant backs who will be 25 or younger this season and who have yet to receive a long-term second contract: Le'Veon Bell, Isaiah Crowell, Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde, Devonta Freeman, Thomas Rawls and Jerick McKinnon.

The one tangible reason a contract year itself might benefit a back is a possible increase in volume. It’s possible that teams with no intention of resigning a back on a rookie deal might give him a heavy workload since his longevity is not of consequence to them.

An example that springs to mind is Dallas giving DeMarco Murray an average of 28 touches per game in his contract year as opposed to an average of 21 touches per game in three seasons prior. Dallas let Murray go after that season, and he only managed 237 touches the following season.

The fact that backs on expiring rookie deals are entering the prime age for backs is more important to their appeal, but the potential for more volume is there as well. If there is reason to believe a team does not intend to resign a young back when their contract expires, it would not be unreasonable to bank on an increase in volume.

Receivers

The argument for contract years being good for receivers (including tight ends) is like that of running backs. Receivers tend to reach their peak ages at about the time their initial contracts expire. Receivers might peak a year or two later around 26 with decline being less gradual in their late 20’s, but the idea is the same.

Young, fantasy relevant receivers that are playing out their rookie deals this season include Allen Robinson, Donte Moncrief, Sammy Watkins, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, Willie Snead, DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Matthews, Martavis Bryant and Tyrell Williams.

Will all of these receivers improve this season simply because they’re entering the peak age range for the position? No, those age ranges are based on averages. Is it possible that one or two of them will be motivated by it being their contract year to spend more time training and preparing in the film room? Perhaps, but good luck picking out the one(s) that will based on no reliable information. But you wouldn’t be wrong to target any of them simply because they’re the right age for peak performance.

Once you get into slightly older receivers like Alshon Jeffery and Terrelle Pryor, we’re out of the peak age range, but we are dealing with guys playing one one-year deals who are likely highly motivated to land a big contract next season. Yet there are better reasons to be high on those two than their motivation to get paid.

Both are moving to new teams that have better quarterback situations than either receiver had last season, and both are moving to teams with room in the offense to give them volume. Both Cousins and Carson Wentz threw the ball over 600 times last season, and the receiving groups on both teams are such that Jeffery and Pryor could easily be the primary targets and see 130+ targets.

When we move to even older receivers, the contract year theory becomes even less viable, though it wasn’t that viable to begin with. Guys like Mike Wallace, Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald will play on one-year deals (Fitzgerald can be cut without much of a cap consequence after this season), and it’s simply hard to trust in a “contract year” staving off the effects of aging.