When last it was my turn to take on our weekly DFS strategy article, we looked at how scoring systems differ between the DFS sites with respect to hitters. The idea was to find out what types of hitters might have more value on a specific site, and we did identify certain skillsets that were better suited to one site or another.

To recap, DraftKings favors base stealers and disfavors three true outcome hitters while FanDuel was essentially the inverse favoring three true outcome guys and disfavoring base stealers. In a sense, FanDuel is akin to a season-long league that uses OBP instead of average.

Today we’ll perform the same exercise for pitchers. As far as methodology goes, we’ll take the results from 2016 and calculate how pitchers performed on per start basis on DraftKings and FanDuel (min. 100 IP as a starter). Once we break it down to a per start basis, we’ll look at how a player performed relative to average on each site to see which scoring system best and least suits his game.

As was noted in the hitter article, the idea here is that the daily variables like matchup, ball park, etc. aren’t the only factors that matter, and a player’s general skill set should not be overlooked. The hypothesis is that certain types of players may be over- or under-valued in specific scoring systems. There may be little market inefficiencies that can give us a leg up on the competition that’s only looking at the day-to-day.

It should be noted that this approach is geared toward cash game analysis. In GPPs you need to focus on the daily factors to try and identify players with significant upside. But in cash games finding a little extra value here and there can be key.

Here are the players with the biggest positive difference in DK scoring compared to FD.

Clayton Kershaw

Vince Velasquez

Chase Anderson

Matt Andriese

Shelby Miller

A.J. Griffin

Ivan Nova

 

That’s quite a weird list. You’ve got the unquestioned best pitcher in baseball along with some unquestionably bad pitchers. Of those other five names, only one, Velasquez, finished in the top 40 in our 137-pitcher sample in DK scoring per start, and he was 40th. None of the other four names finished in the top 85, and Miller ranked next to last in DK scoring per start. We’re literally one pitcher away from having the best and worst pitcher in the sample both being more suited to DK scoring.

When we turn things around and look at the players with the biggest negative difference in FD scoring compared to DK, we find five pitchers from the list above in the bottom six: Kershaw, Anderson, Andriese, Nova and Griffin. Velasquez and Miller also fare worse on FD relative to DK.

I must admit that at first I was vexed as to what the commonality was between these pitchers. My brain couldn’t handle 2016 Kershaw and 2016 Miller being comparable in any way. As it turns out, the answer reveals itself when you remove Kershaw from the group.

With Kershaw out of the picture you’re left with a below average group of pitchers who have a tendency not to pitch deep into games. As it turns out, that’s a feature not a bug when it comes to DK scoring. The league average last season for batters faced per start was 23.96, and the average for innings pitcher per start was 5.65. As a group, the non-Kershaw pitchers from the chart above averaged 22.43 batters faced per start and 5.22 innings per start, well below the league average.

On the flip side, the pitchers with the biggest negative difference between DK scoring and FD are pitchers who go deeper into games than normal: Aaron Sanchez, Martin Perez and Matt Wisler. Those three averaged 25.98 batters faced per start and 5.65 innings per start last season, well above the league average.

Let’s throw out Sanchez along with Kershaw because the real lesson here concerns the bad pitchers.

FD awards more points for an inning pitched than DK does, three compared to 2.25. FD also only deducts points for earned runs allowed while DK also deducts points for hits, walks and hit batters. Thus, the longer a bad pitcher goes into a game, the more opportunity there is for him to lose points on DK and less reward for continuing to pitch than there would be on FD.

It’s weird to say, but there’s some hidden value in bad pitchers who don’t go deep into games on DK. We’re often tempted to lean towards pitchers who can go deeper into a game so that they have a better chance of getting a win and the four DK points that come along with it. But the longer a bad pitcher is in the game the more chances there are for him to lose points.

With DK being a two-pitcher site, you should feel more comfortable using a lesser pitcher in one of your SP slots. Look for guys who tend to throw more pitches per batter faced than average. League average was 3.84 pitches per batter faced last year, and the non-Kershaw group in the chart above averaged 3.94 pitches per batter. On FD you should be looking for the opposite and looking for guys that dispose of batters more quickly and pitch deeper into games, even if they’re a “bad” pitcher. The addition of the quality start to FD scoring contributes to this dichotomy.

Of course, the other lesson here is that Kershaw is the exception to all rules. When you post a 1.69 ERA and 2.28 xFIP you can pitch as deep into a game as you’d like if you’re on our DK roster. Because even though that means there are more opportunities for you to lose us points, we know you’re not going to.

 

One sentence recap: When rostering lesser pitchers, guys with shorter average outings are preferred on DK, and guys with longer average outings are preferred on FD.