We have a three game NBA slate tonight, and although still a small slate, it is much better than trying to make moves in a single game slate like last night. Tonight, two home teams will try to force a game seven, while the Jazz look to close out the Thunder at home tonight. Overall, the slate looks to be very guard heavy, with some decisions to be made on how to approach the PF and C spots. Example lineups will be posted later this afternoon.
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Toronto @ Washington -1.5 Total: 214.5
The home team has won every game in the series so far, and now the Wizards try to extend their home playoff streak to eight straight wins as they try to force a game seven vs the top seeded Raptors.
Out of the six teams playing tonight, the top priced Toronto player, DeMar DeRozan checks in below the top priced option for the other five teams. DeRozan is coming off a 32 actual point game, but had 30 over the first three quarters. He’s now scored at least 32 actual in three out of his last four games, and has taken at least 22 FGA in four straight. He doesn’t contribute much else outside of points, but has dished out at least four assists in all five games so far. Kyle Lowry isn’t far behind DeRozan price wise, and although the points aren’t always there, Lowry’s ability to contribute in all cats has given him at least 40 DK points in four straight games. If VanVleet remains out, expect Delon Wright to continue to be a solid value option from the Raptors. He’s received solid fourth quarter minutes lately, and has produced at least 22 DK points in four out of the five games, including two for over 30 DK points. While Serge Ibaka was a dud last game, he’s worth a shot if looking to be different, but Jonas Valanciunas and C.J. Miles joined the other three mentioned above to play the majority of fourth quarter minutes last game. The was actually the first time Jonas saw fourth quarter action, and ended with his second double double of the series while playing over 30 minutes for the first time. He’s hit for 40 plus DK points twice, and under 26 DK points in the other three games. Miles was mainly used as a decoy to spread the court out, but works if looking to save some salary over Lance and others.
As mentioned above, the Wizards are riding an eight game home playoff winning streak, and need to make it nine in order to stay alive. While we don’t have Harden on the slate tonight, we still have to tough decision as whether to go with Wall or Westbrook. Wall was an assist and board shy of a triple double last game, but seemed to do most of his damage in the first half. Wall has at least 23 points and 9 assists in every game so far, including at least three blocks or steals in four out of the five games. Bradley Beal is unfortunately stuck in a crowded SG spot tonight, and while worth a shot as a pivot off the other options, I’m learning with spending slight more for the other options, or go cheaper in order to get two top priced players. With Porter banged up, look for Kelly Oubre Jr. as a solid value option. This game does have the highest projected total, and Oubre Jr has a price tag that makes him a solid value play if targeting the Wizards. While I don’t mind Morris or Scott, if Val is going to play big minutes, so will Marcin Gortat. Gortat joined Val in playing their most minutes of the series in game five, and he produced his first double double of the series, and first time hitting for over 30 DK points.
Cleveland @ Indiana -1.5 Total: 204
After a missed goaltending call, the Cavs have taken a 3-2 lead, and look to close out the series in Indy as only a slight road underdog. Out of the first five games, only three of the ten final scores have hit 100 or more points. This game will be physical, and is more about trying to figure out which role players will step up for each team tonight.
Not much changes with the Cavs tonight, even if George Hill plays tonight. leBron James is clearly the Cavs offense, and averaging 34.8 points in the series, with over 40 actual in two of the the Cavs wins. He’s also recorded double digit boards in each game, and if his teammates make their shots, he should be in line for a triple double tonight. He’s extremely expensive, but as mentioned in every game he’s played in so far in this series, he’s the best fantasy option out there. The Pacers should try to keep the ball out of his hands, but feel like that will only cause a few of their players to pick up some quick fouls. Kevin Love is 4-21 over his last two games, and remains your top priced PF option on FD. Kyle Korver has scored at least 18 actual points in two straight games, and believe LeBron will look for him to be their second scoring option again tonight. With Korver being a popular value play, J.R. Smith makes for the possible lower owned pivot play. They’ll both play similar minutes, as well as possibly take similar FGA. Smith went 0-8 in game five, but was 6-18 from three point land over the previous two games, and will continue to play solid minutes due to his defense.
On Indy’s side, no real player stands out as a top play, but all of their players are capable of blasting off as we have seen since Oladipo’s first game. Victor Oladipo is the highest priced Indy option, but not a real fan of his FD price tag. He’s affordable on DK, but still a pivot off the other similar priced options, as the Cavs have done a nice job of holding him in check. Oladipo is just 12-50 from the field over his last three games. Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Darren Collison are solid pivot options, but will likely be off of them. I don’t mind going cheaper with Domantas Sabonis, Lance Stephenson, or Myles Turner though. Sabonis scored just 17 actual over the first three games, but has scored 41 actual over his last two off of 17-24 shooting. Turner has been losing minutes to him, but works as a pivot off of Val and Gortat in the center spot. Lance won’t put up a Goose egg like some other value options are capable of, but won’t see him winning you a gpp either. He seems to find a way to make it into my lineups still though. Finally, Cory Joseph had a solid game, and works as the new D-Rose value play if thinking Collison struggles early.
Oklahoma City @ Utah -6 Total: 206.5
The Jazz are the only home team with the chance to win their first round series tonight. They will likely be playing in front of an energetic, but also likely a very nervous home crowd. The Jazz just blew a 25 point third quarter lead, which keeps it wide open in terms of the toll that took on both teams the other night.
The Thunder came back from being down 25 last game at home, and as mentioned above, just not sure how both teams will respond tonight in Utah. Russell Westbrook took 39 FGA last game in order to go 45 actual points. If he goes for 30 plus FGA again tonight, there may not be much love left for the rest of the Thunder outside of Paul George. George went for at least 32 actual points for the third time in this series, and is clearly the number two scoring option. Westbrook and George combined for 79 out of the 107 Thunder points last game. If we see something similar in another do or die scenario tonight, then there won’t be much incentive to look at the rest of the Thunder options. Steven Adams saw over 40 minutes last game, but scored in single digits for the fourth straight game with Gobbert not allowing much inside scoring when in the game. Melo could be used tonight, but would rather go with other PF options tonight.
If Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors stay out of foul trouble tonight, the box score will be vastly different for the Jazz. Jae Crowder blasted off for a career playoff high of 27 actual off of 9-19 shooting. He’s likely more of a 25 minutes, 10 FGA player if foul trouble is not an issue. Joe Ingles has a tough price point, but has played consistent lately for the Jazz, but the tough call could be between Favors and Crowder. It could be more of a personal preference call, but I may lean against using either of them, or just go with the cheaper Crowder. While Ricky Rubio has cooled off a bit, he’s still a sneaky play if not going the stars and value route at PG. Finally, taking Donovan Mitchell over the all-stars in DeRozan, Oladipo, and Beal is not a bad route to take. He’s scored at least 22 actual points, while taking at least 20 FGA in all five games.