Only three games again for tonight, but know the home court has flipped to the lower seeds which could change things up.  As with all smaller slates, it’s best to target gpp’s more. Good luck!

 

Philadelphia -1.5 @ MIami   Total: 216 Update: Joel Embiid is now listed as probable.

The Heat managed to tie the series at 1-1 after being blown out in game two.  Vegas still has them as underdogs at thome, and this game also checks in with the highest projected point total, but by not that much.

Joel Embiid is doubtful still for tonight even after publicly complaining about wanting to play.  I can see a last minute questionable tag, but won’t be jumping on him if that happens to take place.  Ben Simmons will continue to lead the way for Philly, and has hit for at least 50 DK points in both of the first two games.  Dario Saric and Ersan Ilyasova are both in play tonight at similar price tags. I prefer Saric, but not against using either or both of them.  J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli missing their shots was one of the reasons the Heat won last game, and either work. Covington and Amir Johnson round out the only players receiving “safe” minutes in the rotation.

I mentioned over the past weekend that Dwayne Wade will take over  game in this series, and we went for 28 points off 11-16 in their 113-103 game two win.  Wade outscored Philly 21-20 over the last 15 minutes of the first half. I think he’ll have  shot again tonight, but is also the perfect opportunity to fade him. No other Heat player really stands out to me, but can see some James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk exposure in lineups tonight.  Jason Richardson works if looking to de different.


 

Portland @ New Orleans -3  Total: 214.5

 

The Pelicans took both games in Portland, and much was due to the play of Jrue Holiday.  He’s taken at least 20 FGA in both games, and went for a career playoff high 33 points and 9 assists in game two.  Anthony Davis may be a little too high priced on FD, but affordable on DK, and is always an elite play. I don’t think he’s a must like LeBron was last night, but still prefer him over Durant in what should be a closer game.  Rajon Rondo has produced over 40 DK points in both games, and makes for a solid pivot off of Lillard on FD. Nikola Mirotic is in play, but may instead go with a Philly PF option at a similar price.

While Holiday has made 24 FG’s over the first two games, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have combined to make just 29 FG’s.  That could be due to the defense, but also comes down to plenty of forced shots. Both are in play if looking to go different tonight, as Portland will likely be lower owned like the Heat.  Jusuf Nurkic left game two in the third quarter with a leg injury, and did not return. He’s questionable for tonight, and the same goes for Evan Turner. While both make for risky gpp’s if we don’t have an update before lock time, Nurkic is the one I can see more taking a risk with.  The return of Moe Harkless, and the play off the bench of Zach Collins both place them as solid value options.


Golden State -4 @ San Antonio  Total: 206

The passing of Pop’s wife will make for an emotional game tonight if you’ve seen the reactions from players finding out the news. Pop won’t coach tonight, and the Spurs have a tough battle to climb with heavy hearts. LaMarcus Aldridge showed u p in game two with 34 actual, and 54 DK points.  He’ll be looked to as their guy to lead, and is right up there with Simmons, Davis, and Durant as top priced options. The center spot is weak on FD, and don’t mind sticking with Pau Gasol.  He needs to be on the court I feel if the Spurs want to keep this game close. Patty Mills picked up 21 points in game two, while Dejounte Murray barely played. Rudy Gay received the start, and will likely be a popular play tonight.

Golden State has won big in the first two games, and believes that could continue tonight.  Kevin Durant is a solid pivot if not on Davis or Simmons, while Klay Thompson has scored 27 and 31 actual points in the two games, while shooting 10-14 from three point land.  Draymond Green likes getting in foul trouble, but is always a triple double threat. Andre Iguodala blasted off last game for 35 DK points, and works as a solid, but popular value play.  If entering four lineups, I would use him in two. If McGee sits, look for Zaza Pachulia to have an extended run off the bench for extremely cheap. I prefer him over Looney.