NFL DFS Optimal Lineups: Mon-Thurs (Week 13/14)

We say it all the time -- if you're looking to take down one of these big GPP tournaments, you not only have to hit on all your players, but you also need to find ways to differentiate yourself from the rest of the field. While it holds true for every week, this week is going to be one of the toughest to do it. Why this week more than the rest? Check out that Thursday game -- New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons. Ownership percentages are going to be crazy high for everyone in that game.

But the real dilemma arises in that, with everyone and their grandmother using Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram against a run defense that ranked dead-last in the league heading into Week 13 and then gave up 105 rushing yards, 49 receiving yards and a touchdown to the Minnesota backfield on Sunday. But it's not just those two. Vegas set the initial O/U at 54.5 with a 1.5-point spread which means we're going to see a ton of lineups stacked with Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and anyone who sees consistent targets from either team.

That's not to say people won't be fishing in tonight's Bengals/Steelers game as Le'Veon Bell will be a popular play, as will JuJu Smith-Schuster (expecting Antonio Brown to be out), Martavis Bryant, Joe Mixon and A.J. Green. Perhaps the differentiation you need to win will be found in the fringe players -- Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd, or even maybe someone like Eli Rogers. The Thursday game has its own fringe players as well as Brandon Coleman, Willie Snead, Taylor Gabriel and Justin Hardy continue to see targets.

After crunching the numbers and weighing the options, which include potential ownership projections, here's what I've come up with. You want to know "What's in the box?" Well, I'm trying to think outside the box a little bit here, which is why I'm going to use Big Ben on the road. Contrarian? I suppose, but with just four quarterbacks on the slate, is it really that contrarian?

Also, if you're wondering why no pivot for Antonio Brown, I'll say this: In five games matched up against Adam 'Pacman' Jones, Brown has just one 100-yard effort and only two touchdowns. Jones, for whatever reason, has Brown's number more often than not. You may think, "Hey, let me use him because people will be scared off with the injury and his ownership percentages will be down." Not me. I've been looking to fade him since I opened the Week 13 DFS Watch List. I'd rather build up my running backs than worry about squeezing in Brown's price for the wide receivers.