Week 13 arrives with a relatively paltry set of must-start rotation options, but as with Week 12, that is tempered by the wealth of middle tier starting pitchers to consider using for one or perhaps two starts. Plus, the bottom tier is filled with nearly as many pitchers you are advised to avoid, either based on their matchups or recent performance, or both.
Please realize that these articles feature most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher listed here as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, apologies but this article is meant to provide analysis, it is up to the manager to set the lineups or rotations.
Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:
| Start 'em If You Own 'em |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Zack Greinke ARI | vs. PHI Nick Pivetta | vs. COL Tyler Anderson |
| Mon 6/26 3:40 PM ET | Sat 7/1 10:10 PM ET |
Max Scherzer WAS | vs. CHC Jake Arrieta | @ STL Carlos Martinez |
| Tue 6/27 7:05 PM ET | Sun 7/2 8:05 PM ET |
Carlos Martinez STL | @ ARI Taijuan Walker | vs. WAS Max Scherzer |
| Tue 6/27 9:40 PM ET | Sun 7/2 8:05 PM ET |
Chris Sale BOS | vs. MIN Jose Berrios | @ TOR Francisco Liriano |
| Mon 6/26 7:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 1:07 PM ET |
Carlos Carrasco CLE | vs. TEX Cole Hamels | @ DET Jordan Zimmermann |
| Mon 6/26 7:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 1:10 PM ET |
Jose Berrios MIN | @ BOS Chris Sale | @ KC Jason Hammel |
| Mon 6/26 7:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 2:15 PM ET |
Gio Gonzalez WAS | vs. CHC Eddie Butler | @ STL Michael Wacha |
| Mon 6/26 7:05 PM ET | Sat 7/1 7:15 PM ET |
Justin Verlander DET | vs. KC Matt Strahm | vs. CLE Carlos Carrasco |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 1:10 PM ET |
Verlander returns to his normal location in the top tier, although his second start against the visiting Cleveland team is a bit worrisome, but with two home starts, he deserves top tier recognition. Berrios has been pitching lights out fantastic as June moves along, a huge improvement over his disastrous 2016 MLB debut, and although he has two road starts, his last pair of eight inning efforts make him a top tier SP. These are the best options to plug in your lineups this coming week, and although anything can happen day to day, there is no reason to consider sitting any of these eight starters.
| Maybe Yes, Maybe No |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Sean Manaea OAK | @ HOU Mike Fiers | vs. ATL Sean Newcomb |
| Tue 6/27 8:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 4:05 PM ET |
Luis Severino NYY | @ CHW Jose Quintana | @ HOU Mike Fiers |
| Tue 6/27 8:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 2:10 PM ET |
Mike Fiers HOU | vs. OAK Sean Manaea | vs. NYY Luis Severino |
| Tue 6/27 8:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 2:10 PM ET |
Alex Cobb TB | @ PIT Trevor Williams | @ BAL Kevin Gausman |
| Tue 6/27 7:05 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:35 PM ET |
vs. COL German Marquez | @ PIT Trevor Williams | |
| Mon 6/26 10:15 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:35 PM ET |
Jose Quintana CHW | vs. NYY Luis Severino | vs. TEX Martin Perez |
| Tue 6/27 8:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 2:10 PM ET |
Junior Guerra MIL | @ CIN Tim Adleman | vs. MIA Dan Straily |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 2:10 PM ET |
Dan Straily MIA | vs. NYM Robert Gsellman | @ MIL Junior Guerra |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 2:10 PM ET |
Taijuan Walker ARI | vs. STL Carlos Martinez | vs. COL German Marquez |
| Tue 6/27 9:40 PM ET | Sun 7/2 4:10 PM ET |
Sean Newcomb ATL | @ SD Jhoulys Chacin | @ OAK Sean Manaea |
| Tue 6/27 10:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 4:05 PM ET |
German Marquez COL | @ SF Jeff Samardzija | @ ARI Taijuan Walker |
| Mon 6/26 10:15 PM ET | Sun 7/2 4:10 PM ET |
Drew Pomeranz BOS | vs. MIN TBA | @ TOR Joe Biagini |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:07 PM ET |
@ CHW David Holmberg | @ HOU Brad Peacock | |
| Mon 6/26 8:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 7:15 PM ET |
Rich Hill LAD | vs. LAA Ricky Nolasco | @ SD TBA |
| Mon 6/26 10:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 10:10 PM ET |
vs. ATL Sean Newcomb | vs. LAD Hyun-Jin Ryu | |
| Tue 6/27 10:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 4:40 PM ET |
Jake Arrieta CHC | @ WAS Max Scherzer | @ CIN Tim Adleman |
| Tue 6/27 7:05 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:10 PM ET |
Cole Hamels TEX | @ CLE Carlos Carrasco | @ CHW David Holmberg |
| Mon 6/26 7:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 2:10 PM ET |
Michael Wacha STL | vs. CIN TBA | vs. WAS Gio Gonzalez |
| Mon 6/26 4:15 PM ET | Sat 7/1 7:15 PM ET |
Manaea leads off the middle tier, and has to face the Astros in his first trip to the mound, not necessarily a positive matchup, but the second home start against the Braves is certainly a start to consider him as a fantasy asset. He is striking out better than a batter per inning (9.94 K/9 over his 13 starts) and his FIP and strand rates (3.58 FIP, 66.2% strand rate over 73.1 innings) hint that he could become a more valuable fantasy asset as the season progresses.
Severino has struggled in his last two outings, but had been very sharp prior to that. He still sports a 3.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season, and has been better on the road than at Yankee Stadium, a fortunate occurrence with two road starts in Week 13. His good control and ability to miss bats are both positives (9.79 K/9, 2.47 BB/9) as is his ability to induce groundballs (2.29 GB/FB ratio over 87.1 innings pitched).
Fiers gets two home starts and based on his splits, that is a good thing in Week 13. He is just an average strikeout producer, and needs to work on his control, but he is also working on three game quality start (QS) streak. He is backed by a potent offense which obviously is also in his favor.
Cobb also has a three game QS streak heading into the current scoring period. Having two road starts in the coming week tempers his worth. He is an average control pitcher (2.60 BB/9 over 15 starts this season so far) who does not provide great K numbers (6.36 K/9). His best start this coming week is in his first appearance in Pittsburgh, although Baltimore has not pounded right handers this season, making him a decent option for both his starts.
Samardzija faces Colorado, but fortunately at home and not at Coors Field. How a pitcher can rack up 112 Ks over just 98.2 innings with excellent control ends up with a 4.74 ERA (and a 1.16 WHIP) is a mystery that is likely chalked up due to being unlucky (he has a .338 BABIP and his FIP is at 3.55). Home runs have hurt his stat line, too, but mostly on the road where he has yielded 12 round trips to opposing hitters. PNC Park is a good place to pitch for a SP that has been victimized by the long ball.
Quintana is still being talked about a trade chip that the White Sox will try to cash in by the trade deadline. He has picked up the pace, allowing just six earned runs over his last four games, a 24 inning stretch. He has not been particularly effective at home, however, and has two home games in Week13. If you worry about his chances against a pair of good offenses in the Yankees and Rangers, then perhaps discretion speaks against employing him as a SP in the coming week. Unless you need the strikeouts, then you can enjoy his 8.97 K/9 rate.
Guerra has an attractive 3.11 ERA in seven starts, but a chance for regression seems likely as he is not exhibiting much control or dominance (27:22 K/BB rate over 37.2 innings). His road game in Cincy is not a terrible matchup, save for the venue, but his second start at home against the Marlins holds more potential, fantasy-wise.
Straily has been showing excellent control recently, allowing just three free passes in his last five starts, which has never been his forte to this point in his career. His home start to open Week 13 against the Mets looks like the game you want to consider using him in, as heading to Milwaukee does not like up as well given his home-road splits this season.
Walker has a couple of matchups that would be more favorable away from his home park, but at least he does not have to pitch at Coors Field in the second appearance at the end of the week. Small benefit, as his home park is not exactly a pitcher’s paradise. He offers excellent strikeout production, and has limited the home runs this season, while generating a ton of groundballs from opposing batters (8.57 K/9, 0.7 HR/9 and 1.75 GB/FB ratio over 63.0 innings in 2017). Aside from the venue, he has good potential as a two-start option.
Newcomb has made the most of his limited time in the Atlanta rotation, twirling three consecutive QS. He is only a middling K option, though, with just 13 strikeouts in 18.1 innings pitched at the major league level. A regression from his sterling 1.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP are due at some point, but he looks to have secured a spot in the Braves’ rotation for now. Pitching away from SunTrust Park will be an interesting test, as all three of the southpaw’s starts have been at home so far. Taking on the Padres then the A’s is about as good you ask for two road starts, however, and he can be a useful plug-in streaming option so long as you can put up with the limited K production.
Marquez is on the road for both his starts in Week 13, although the first trip to the rubber in San Francisco looks better than his second start at Arizona. He offers decent K production, but needs to work on his control (3.17 BB/9) to help push his 1.36 WHIP down to a respectable level.
Pomeranz can be frustrating as a starter, although he has allowed more than two earned runs only once in his past eight games, dating back to mid-May. He gets Minnesota at home to open the week, then takes on Toronto on the road to wind up his Week 13 schedule. He has been better away from Fenway this season, and you have to like a pitcher that strikeouts more than a batter per inning (10.11 K/9), and thus has a couple of appearances that should provide fantasy value.
Montgomery has a tough matchup against the White Sox, who have a league-best wOBA when facing left-handers, and things do not get all that much better when he heads to take on the Astros on the road in his second scheduled trip to the mound in Week 13. He provides a good strikeout rate of 8.56 K/9, although like many young pitchers, he struggles with his control (3.13 BB/9 over 74.2 innings). Because of the opponents, he is a risk in Week 13 that could potentially pay big dividends, but could also ruin your week.
Hill is a difficult SP to trust, with his blister issues and lack of ability to pitch deep into contests. He has yet to get more than 15 outs in any game in 2017, and sports an ugly 4.73 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over his nine starts. He faces two beatable opponents this coming week in the Angels and Padres, though, and he does have the ability to miss bats effectively (9.68 K/9) although his control has been atrocious this season, with 26 free passes allowed over 40.0 innings. He is not likely to give you a win or QS in either of his appearances, although the strikeouts are helpful.
Chacin has been superb at home this season, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 43.0 innings at Petco Park. Because he has two home starts, he has to be considered, at least as a streaming option this week. If not for his home dominance, he would be in the bottom tier.
Arrieta has suffered some regression from the dominance he demonstrated over the past three seasons, and currently has a 4.36 ERA and with a FIP of 4.16, it does not seem that he has been excessively unlucky. He does still strike out batters at a great pace, and currently has a 9.46 K/9 rate over his 84.2 innings pitched in 2017. Being on the road at Washington against Max Scherzer and then heading to Great American Ballpark to face the Reds does not figure to be the ideal matchups for the Cub righty, although his three-year averages show that he has handled the Nationals better than the Reds. That makes him a dicey option in Week 13.
Hamels comes off the DL to make the start on Monday against the host Indians, and was having a nice season prior to his oblique injury. Oblique injuries often linger, but the Rangers obviously feel he is ready to resume his rotation spot. He builds on a 3.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, albeit over only five starts in 2017. The start against the White Sox on the road is no walk in the park, given Chicago’s ability to hit lefties this season. While this is a quality arm, the road games make him a somewhat risky option in Week 13.
Wacha’s value is reduced by his inability to pitch deeper into games. He has tallied just 25.1 innings over his last six starts, which hurts his worth in leagues that place emphasis on quality starts or victories. He is at home for both his starts this coming week, and has been a much better pitcher in his home park than on the road. He can provide Ks, but his lack of durability and shaky control (3.57 BB/9) drops him to the bottom of the middle tier.
| Not On My Roster |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Trevor Bauer CLE | vs. TEX Yu Darvish | @ DET Daniel Norris |
| Wed 6/28 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:10 PM ET |
Daniel Norris DET | vs. KC Ian Kennedy | vs. CLE Trevor Bauer |
| Wed 6/28 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:10 PM ET |
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD | vs. LAA Jesse Chavez | @ SD Jhoulys Chacin |
| Tue 6/27 10:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 4:40 PM ET |
Kevin Gausman BAL | @ TOR Joe Biagini | vs. TB Alex Cobb |
| Tue 6/27 7:07 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:35 PM ET |
Robert Gsellman NYM | @ MIA Dan Straily | vs. PHI Nick Pivetta |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:10 PM ET |
Mike Clevinger CLE | vs. TEX Martin Perez | @ DET Jordan Zimmermann |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 1:10 PM ET |
Joe Biagini TOR | vs. BAL Kevin Gausman | vs. BOS Drew Pomeranz |
| Tue 6/27 7:07 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:07 PM ET |
Jesse Chavez LAA | @ LAD Hyun-Jin Ryu | vs. SEA Ariel Miranda |
| Tue 6/27 10:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 3:37 PM ET |
Eddie Butler CHC | @ WAS Gio Gonzalez | @ CIN TBA |
| Mon 6/26 7:05 PM ET | Sat 7/1 4:10 PM ET |
Ricky Nolasco LAA | @ LAD Rich Hill | vs. SEA Sam Gaviglio |
| Mon 6/26 10:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 10:07 PM ET |
Nick Pivetta PHI | @ ARI Zack Greinke | @ NYM Robert Gsellman |
| Mon 6/26 3:40 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:10 PM ET |
Matt Strahm KC | @ DET Justin Verlander | vs. MIN Adalberto Mejia |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 2:15 PM ET |
Trevor Williams PIT | vs. TB Alex Cobb | vs. SF Jeff Samardzija |
| Tue 6/27 7:05 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:35 PM ET |
Adalberto Mejia MIN | @ BOS Rick Porcello | @ KC Matt Strahm |
| Wed 6/28 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 2:15 PM ET |
David Holmberg CHW | vs. NYY Jordan Montgomery | vs. TEX Cole Hamels |
| Mon 6/26 8:10 PM ET | Sat 7/1 2:10 PM ET |
Tyson Ross TEX | @ CLE Mike Clevinger | @ CHW Jose Quintana |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 2:10 PM ET |
Tim Adleman CIN | vs. MIL Junior Guerra | vs. CHC Jake Arrieta |
| Tue 6/27 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/2 1:10 PM ET |
None of these pitchers are recommended, even on a streaming basis. Ryu has decent matchups in Week 13, but his recent performance on the hill make him too risky to trust. As is usually the case, none of these pitchers are recommended to fill out your fantasy team’s pitching rotation.
Please note that the Fantasy Alarm Forums are now open for your use, to ask questions or provide your own commentary and wisdom. I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.