2017 MLB Two-Start Pitchers: Week 1

For those who play in Head-to-Head Leagues, having a handle on which starting pitchers are scheduled to pitch in two game in an upcoming week is invaluable. Of course, if you are an owner in a roto league, and your starting pitching is not looking as good as it did when you drafted your team, or if injuries, demotions to the minors or general poor performance are hurting your placement in the standings, you may want to consider the streaming technique to pep up the rotation. Or you just like to shuffle the deck. Whatever your impetus, if you want to get an idea of who could benefit your squad in the next scoring period, you have arrived at the correct and proper place. On a weekly basis, this series of article will set forth those starting pitchers that as of Saturday are on deck to take the hill twice.

The format is to put the group of two-start pitchers into three tiers. The first tier is entitled “Start ‘em If You Own ‘em” and consists of those pitchers that I suggest you wind up and let go, no matter where they are pitching or what opponent they face. Most, if not all, of these SPs will be owned in your league, but if you own one or two, smile and walk happy.

The second tier is called “Maybe Yes, Maybe No,” and is generally the largest tier. I tend to break it down into sub-tiers for convenience in both my ability to provide analysis of the individuals that make up the tier, and to assist my readers in deciding how much risk they are willing to tolerate on a weekly basis. Depending on how many two-start options there are in a given week, the sub-tiers number either two, or at most, three.

The final tier I call “Not On My Roster” which I believe is self-explanatory. If you are absolutely desperate for a two-start option, due to inning minimums in your league settings, or are just a glutton for punishment, then you can consider rostering one or more of these guys. I cannot in good faith recommend that you do so, but then again, it is your team and you are free to manage it as you see fit (a philosophy I would encourage more leagues to adopt instead of micromanaging every teams moves during the season ).

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:

As noted above, these are the pitchers I would personally start no matter the venue or the opponent. All nine of these starters are pitchers I trust, and you paid a pretty penny to draft them or obtain them in an auction, so in Week 1, why not trust your instincts? Do not overthink this, and instead rely on your draft instincts.

In Week 1, these are also pitchers I would want to rely upon to provide me with good to great results. You never can depend on pitching results, however, so let us go through the group. I will put them in two sub-tiers, and the first tier are all pitchers you should rely upon depending on the opposing pitcher, the park where they are pitching and the offense they are facing. Martinez opens the tier, and I really like him to continue the success he had last season. He just misses the top tier, due to having to face the Cubs in his first start of the regular season. He is still a great source of ratio stats and his mid-90s fastball indicates that he will be a good source of Ks.

Porcello is perhaps the worst Cy Young winner I have seen in my years as a fantasy analyst, but he has been improving over the years he was part of the Detroit rotation, and I chalk up his struggles in the first year in Boston to self-imposed pressure. His .279 BABIP from 2016 is unsustainable so expect some regression this season.

Maeda should be fine in his first 2017 start against the visiting Padres, but I am worried about his second start at Coors Field, and thus he has some risk in Week 1.

McCullers needs to step up to be a true SP2 in Houston if they are to compete this season.

Kluber has two road starts in hitter favorable parks in Week 1 and while he does tend to generate a great deal of ground balls, he has had his problems on the road before last season. As the Cleveland ace, I would normally put him in the top tier, except for the venue issue this week.

Cole is coming off a late season injury, and in fact landed on the DL three times in 2016 before being shut down with an elbow ligament issue. That is a concern going forward, to be sure, and he has to face off against two other top pitchers in Week 1 with Porcello and Teheran (despite the negative things I am writing about them). I will take a wait and see attitude with the Pittsburgh SP, although I will confess he is a favorite of mine since he was drafted. Take that for what it is worth, since I also consider Jason Hammel as a favorite SP.

Tanaka is pitching away from Yankee Stadium for both his starts, which was a good thing last season. Unfortunately, he faces Archer in Tampa Bay (look for him in the top tier above) and then heads to pitcher unfriendly Camden Yards for this second start. Otherwise, he would be ranked higher here.

Hernandez seems to have lost a bit of his mojo, if we look at what he accomplished in 2016 and the drop in fastball velocity over his past two seasons causes concern. He is now a mid-tier SP, after being a perennial Cy Young candidate for lo those many seasons, and thus his lower ranking.

Quintana would be a much better option if he would get traded to a better team, but he is still with the White Sox. His home park does not help him, although I would not hesitate to start him against the Twins in his second start in Week 1.

Duffy had a breakout 2016 season, at least until September rolled around and his fastball velocity declined. He also has not had a strong spring, so the concerns that surround his late season struggles are there until he shows something different. I also do not like his second start at Houston in Week 1, so there is that weighing him down in these rankings as well.

Davies rounds out the top sub-tier, and you may recall I promoted him as a late round SP candidate in a previous article on this site. As with Duffy, his spring results have not been superb (or even decent, really), and despite the two home starts, he would be a reluctant SP to insert into my lineup for Week 1.

The second tier starts with Keuchel, who needs to step up and be the ace in Houston. He has two home starts against second tier pitchers (at least according to these rankings), but I am leery of providing him with my full trust. I see him as more of a wait and see SP.

Shoemaker is another SP that I promoted in the late-round articles, but he pitches for a team I just do not trust to provide suitable offensive support. I would use him in his first start against Oakland, but sit him against the visiting Mariners.

Manaea gets to face off against Shoemaker in his first start (amazing how that worked out in my rankings), and while I do generally like him to provide value as a SP, but his second start plays into his struggles on the road last season when he heads to Texas. He is more of a spot starter for me this season, until he proves his dependability.

Iwakuma becomes much more important to the Seattle rotation with the Drew Smyly injury, but he has not exactly been a model of dependability, and he is coming off a scary spring with a 7.13 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in six starts. Pitching two starts on the road gives him a slight uptick based on the past two seasons of production, but that only keeps out of the bottom tier.

Gray is someone I want to use in Coors Field, as amazing as that may seem. So his first start on the road is questionable, then he has to face Kershaw in his second start at home. Just put him on the bench if you drafted him in Week 1, unless you feel bold.

Teheran was a better road pitcher in 2016, a reversal of 2015, but in Week 1, with all the emotion of playing at another team’s opening set of games, I just want to stay away. That is the only reason he is ranked this low, a gut feeling.

Sabathia is the exceptional veteran of the Yankee staff, and he did have great success away from Yankee Stadium in 2016. So why so low in the rankings? I worry that the tank is getting low for him. Pitching in his second start of the week at Baltimore is also a concern, given his prior HR propensity (before 2016).

Graveman is a good option against the Angels in his first start, but I would avoid starting him in the second start at Texas. He is coming off an exceptional spring with a 2.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP and 16 Ks over 19 and 2/3 innings, but until he proves that he can dominate on the road, only consider him for his first start in Week 1 at home against Los Angeles.

Greinke scares me, I have to confess. I did not like when he went to Arizona, and he now has two home starts in Week 1. Facing Bumgarner is not a favorable match up in the first start. The second start against the Indians’ Trevor Bauer could be favorable, but the home/road splits may me wary.

I do not fully trust any of these pitchers for two starts. That being said, I also do not trust any of these pitchers for two starts at all. I am certain I will talking about them much more as the season goes forward, and they may graduate from the bottom tier to the middle tier at some point. Keep your eyes on these articles to see how they move up in the rankings, or just settle in as SP4/5 options for the 2017 season.

Please note that the Fantasy Alarm Forums are now open for your use, to ask questions or provide your own commentary and wisdom. I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.