This is the eighth starting pitcher article of the preseason (although I have covered 10 SPs due to the triumvirate of Mets that were profiled at the beginning of March), and this installment covers a player who intrigues but also tends to disappoint. Granted, he plays in a tough division and his home park does him no favors, but the strikeout potential is too good to simply toss him aside in the later rounds of your drafts.

To recap what these articles are about, I will be discussing starting pitchers that are being drafted in the 15th round or later based on their current ADPs. Note that I am assuming a 12 team league when determining which players are going after the 14th round, and thus if you play in a smaller or larger sized league, you will need to adjust the round accordingly. The ADP of 169 is a baseline, however, denoting where in any draft the player is being taken.

If you are late to the party, you can always see the first three installments on the site. There was some useful information in those early article opening paragraphs, at least in my opinion, but I tend to get bored publishing the same old, same old twice a week. Even so, I tried to distill some useful advice about drafting starting pitching in those first three articles.

I will be profiling one (or at most two) later round options in the starting pitching realm on a twice-weekly basis, just as I did last season. If you have questions about any pitchers and their viability as a “sleeper” pick, hit me up at ia@fantasyalarm.com and I will do my best to provide some insight. Also, I am always available to answer starting pitching (or other fantasy baseball) questions all season long.

Michael PinedaRHP New York Yankees

2016 Stats: 175.2 IP, 4.85 ERA, 207 K, 1.35 WHIP

Current ADP

Mock Draft Army ADP: 204.93 (based on current ADPs generated by Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army results)

National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC): 205.33

FSTA Draft on January 23rd, 2017: Drafted 17th round (213th overall)

Availability

He is going off most draft boards at the level of a SP4 or SP5, and thus is a player who clearly fits the bill of these articles. Although he does offer significant benefits as a now healthy pitcher just hitting his late 20s, when you did deeper into his overall peripherals, you have to pause before making the decision to add him to your roster as viable every start option.

Upside

It is the strikeouts that make him valuable. He ramped up the Ks in 2016, posting a superb 10.61 K/9 rate over his 32 starts, and in most leagues of any format that denotes late round profit. I would caution that you look at the downside of owning Mr. Pineda as explained below before you jump in with both feet, however. He does keep hitters from getting on base without swinging the bat, last season putting up an adequate 2.72 BB/9 rate, and he generates a good amount of ground ball action from opposing hitters as well (1.84 GB/FB ratio in 2015, down a bit but still excellent at 1.65 in 2016). He should benefit from his offense backing him up, also, so double digit wins are a likely result in 2017. But…

Downside

Just take a look at his ratio stats over the past couple of seasons: 4.37 ERA in 2015, even uglier in 2016 at 4.85. The WHIP also took a beating in 2016, ballooning to 1.35 after hovering in the useful 1.23 or less range over the prior three seasons when he was on the mound (he was out of action on the MLB scene for 2012-13). He was also victimized by the long ball at Yankee Stadium last season, allowing 20 of his 27 dingers at home. He really needs to figure out how to limit the hard contact by opposing batters, as evidenced by his .353 BABIP last season, in order to be a more effective pitcher.

Summary

I would not be targeting him as anything more than a spot starter, to use when he is away from Yankee Stadium, given his propensity to let hitters put the ball in the seats in the Bronx. He does offer excellent strikeout potential, but you would need to have a superb ratio stat rotation to absorb the damage he is likely to do to your ERA and WHIP numbers. He is going too early to be a reserve SP, but that is all I am willing to recommend him as unless he can improve on the peripherals throughout the upcoming season. Given his potential (he did look special when he first arrived on the scene in 2011 with the Mariners), he has a chance to turn things around if he can learn how to fool hitters better and limit the hard contact. If he lands on your waiver wire, he would be a good streaming option, but his value as a primary backend starter is limited due to the homer issue and the inflated ratio stat profile.