Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: Week 12

Another week with a limited slate of must start and potentially useful starting pitchers that are taking the mound twice during the scoring period. Once again, the bottom tier is teeming with pitchers I would urge you to avoid, despite the allure of two starts. The middle tier has a decent share of SPs, and some may even be available on your league waiver wire.

One pitcher will be a surprise addition to the middle tier, the White Sox ace, Chris Sale. More on him below.

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:

There were nearly 10 residents of the top tier, and normally I would not hesitate to have included Chris Sale here, but despite his most recent successful start against the Tigers, he concerns me. His stat line looks fine, but he is not giving his owners the same big strikeout numbers from past seasons. Sure, he is pitching to contact­­­­ by choice, but that has taken away some his dominance and his ratios are sure to take a hit if he keeps giving up handfuls of earned runs. The nine SPs in the top tier are about as sure a thing as there is in fantasy baseball. Wind them up and let them go.

As I review the middle tier, I do not see a clear cut set of sub-tiers. Therefore, I will just work through these pitchers, one by one. As per usual, these pitchers are ranked roughly as to how I would value them in Week 12. The middle tier opens with one of my all-time favorite SPs, Jason Hammel. Realize that he tends to run out of gas to an extent as the season goes forward, but pre-All-Star break, he is usually a steady mid-tier option. He is having a career year, but I am concerned about his FIP and BABIP (3.61 and .255, respectively) as opposed to his current 2.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and could see some regression in his future. Right now, however, I would trot him out there whenever he is scheduled to take the ball. Paxton is showing elite strikeout ability this season, which was why he was so highly regarded as a prospect. He has also shown improved control, far beyond what he has flashed before, with a career best 2.45 BB/9 over his four starts this season. He does not have the best matchup facing the Verlander –led Tigers in Detroit, but I like him against the Cardinals at home on Sunday.

Fister has been a frequent guest on the Streaming Pitcher article I do on Sundays, and now he makes an appearance on the Two-Start post as well. No, he does not rack up the Ks, and he is still being plagued by the long ball, having allowed 11 over his 80 innings pitched this season. Right now, he is pitching with efficiency, but the lack of swing and miss stuff will come back to haunt him as the season progresses. I would be a lot more comfortable using him in his first start than against the Royals in KC, although he has been much more of a road warrior this season. Gray has been on a streak where he has allowed two or fewer earned runs over his last five starts. He has done it both at Coors and on the road, making him a useful starter. He strikes out better than a batter per inning, and also generates a ton of groundballs. I initially considered him as only an option when pitching on the road, but see no reason to do so any longer. Tomlin certainly will not provide much in the way of Ks, but is getting by with excellent control and the ability to generate grounders. He is prone to allowing homers, and gives up better than a hit per inning. I would prefer to use him in his first start against the Rays, and maybe fade him in his second start at Detroit.

I discussed Sale a bit above, and while I had a hard time moving him to the middle tier, I do think he is not the plug and play ace he once was. Not that you should avoid using him, but he does have two tough matchups this week, so tread carefully. Snell is a fine young pitcher that many of us have rostered and were hoping that the Rays would promote. He was not as sharp in his most recent start, allowing eight hits and five runs (only one earned, though). It is his control that worries me most, as he has shown the ability to make hitters swing and miss in the minors. He is heading out on the road for his two starts in Week 12, so do not be overly aggressive in employing him in your lineups this week, but he should stick on your roster so long as he has a chance to stay with the Tampa Bay rotation. Norris has picked up the pace with his strikeouts over his past two starts, but that is likely an aberration. He has a pair of tough games this week, facing off against a pair of aces with Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard. At least his offense is picking up.

Norris, like the next two SPs, is a reach except in deep leagues or NL-only set ups. Pelfrey is looking more like what the Tigers envisioned when the inked him to a long-term deal this off-season, although he took a step back in his last outing against the White Sox. He is a poor source of Ks, and walks too many hitters, but he does pitch deeper into games to provide some value as a back-of-the-rotation starter. The home runs at home are a concern with two home starts this week, too, so keep your expectations low if you opt to use him in Week 12. Karns winds up the bottom tier. The Seattle righthander has now gone four games without allowing a home run, something that has plagued him in 2016. He strikeouts more than a batter per inning but also struggles to find the strike zone consistently. I might want to exercise caution in Week 12, and only start him against the Cardinals when his Saturday start rolls around in Seattle.

Another week, another slew of undependable, inconsistent two-start pitchers. I might be tempted to take a shot on Gausman in his second start. The others I like, such as Smyly and Garcia, just do not have good matchups in Week 12. If you do end up starting one or more of these pitchers, and you have good results despite my warnings, be sure to post in our new Forum to brag.

I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.