NAVI (World rank: #2) vs. FaZe (World rank: #33) 

Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-295) | FaZe (+230) 

Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+105) | FaZe +1.5 (-130)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket quarter-finals of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021.
  • NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.34 | electronic 1.09 | B1T 1.04 | Perfecto 0.98 | Boombl4 0.97 
  • FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.16 | broky 1.12 | rain 0.94 | karrigan 0.85 | olofmeister N/A 

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced each other in February 2021, olofmeister was on FaZe at the time, but coldzera was also still on the roster instead of karrigan, and flamie was playing for NAVI instead of B1T, so things have changed quite a bit. NAVI won that series 2-0 (16-10 Dust2 / 16-11 Nuke). 

Projected Maps:

    NAVI removes Vertigo

    FaZe removes Overpass

    NAVI picks Nuke

    FaZe picks Mirage

    NAVI removes Inferno

    FaZe removes Dust2

    Ancient is left over.

  • The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Neither team likes Overpass, but NAVI removed it last time and I think they will so again in this spot. FaZe would likely ban Overpass in that case. Nuke & Mirage make the most sense as the respective map picks for these teams, and Ancient could be a possible decider in that scenario. I am not putting too much weight in the maps though since anything can happen, especially with olofmeister now re-entering the FaZe lineup.  

NAVI - Key stats on Nuke past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 78.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.7% round win percent after receiving first death

NAVI - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (6 maps): s1mple +58 K/D Diff, 1.48 Rating | electronic +9 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating

NAVI - Key stats on Mirage past three months (11 maps): 4-7 W/L record, 40.9% pistol round win percent, 67.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.8% round win percent after receiving first death

NAVI - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (11 maps): s1mple +66 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating

 

FaZe - Key stats on Nuke past three months (4 maps): 1-3 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 64.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.9% round win percent after receiving first death

FaZe - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (4 maps): broky +19 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Twistzz +4 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

FaZe - Key stats on Mirage past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 78.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.5% round win percent after receiving first death

FaZe - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (5 maps): Twistzz +17 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | broky +15 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating

Analysis:

Fading s1mple is just not an option for me on this slate. If you have enough salary to put him at captain, then just do it. It would be very rare for you to regret playing s1mple, especially when NAVI is a heavy favorite like they are in this spot against FaZe. Now that we have that out of the way, we can talk about this series. I do like NAVI to win, though I feel like this FaZe team is being underestimated with olofmeister back in the mix. I believe that he can still have a lot of impact in this lineup. Mirage has been FaZe’s best map in the past three months, and NAVI only have a 4-7 record on Mirage during that time, but NAVI is still solid on that map, and we can probably give them a break on some of their results, like losing 2-16 against Akuma, the CIS team accused of cheating. NAVI might go for Nuke like they did last time against FaZe, but I feel confident that they can win on any map that they pick. Stacking NAVI seems like the best play here, but if you want to play FaZe then I would still include s1mple if possible. Electronic, B1T, Perfecto and Boombl4 are all in play for me since they are all inconsistent, but all have the ability to be the secondary star to s1mple on any given day. Perfecto is my second favorite play on NAVI given his price on Draftkings, but electronic has more upside. My favorite plays on FaZe are Twistzz, broky and olofmeister, though my focus will definitely be on NAVI. If NAVI do not sweep, then I think they will win it 2-1. FaZe has potential but they are not ready to beat a team like NAVI yet with olofmeister just coming back into the lineup.

Evil Geniuses (World rank: #21) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #11) 

Moneyline Odds: Evil Geniuses (+110) | NiP (-135) 

Map Handicap: Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-290) | NiP -1.5 (+230)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-115)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket round 1 of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021.
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: MICHU 0.98 | Brehze 0.96 | oBo 0.86 | CeRq 0.81 | stanislaw 0.78
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: oBo 1.06 | Brehze 1.02 | MICHU 0.99 | CeRq 0.98 | stanislaw 0.84
  • NiP - Rating at event: LNZ 0.97 | REZ 0.91 | hampus 0.76 | device 0.70 | Plopski 0.63
  • NiP - Rating past three months: device 1.10 | REZ 1.08 | LNZ 1.02 | hampus 1.02 | Plopski 0.97

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. Both teams have made significant changes to their lineups since they last faced in October 2020. NiP did win that series 2-0 (16-8 Overpass / 19-15 Inferno). 

Projected Maps:

    Evil Geniuses removes Dust2

    NiP removes Vertigo

    Evil Geniuses picks Inferno

    NiP picks Overpass

    Evil Geniuses removes Ancient 

    NiP removes Nuke

    Mirage is left over.

  • The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Vertigo should be the ban for NiP. EG might ban Dust2, though they did just play the best team in the world, Gambit, twice on that map in the past week, so it is possible that they have been working on it and want to play it. Evil Geniuses picked Inferno against Gambit on Tuesday and played well in an overtime loss, so I think they will pick that map again. NiP picked Ancient against Complexity and got destroyed on that map, so I do not think they will go for it again until they have had more time to work on it. Overpass has been NiP’s best map in recent months and makes sense as their pick. Mirage would be the most likely decider in this scenario, with Ancient as a possibility as well. 

Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 4-8 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 70.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.7% round win percent after receiving first death

Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): MICHU (5 maps) -3 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | oBo -3 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | Brehze -12 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating

Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 1-6 W/L record, 21.4% pistol round win percent, 64.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.5% round win percent after receiving first death

Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): MICHU (4 maps) +5 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Brehze 0 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | CeRq 0 K/D Diff, 0.99 Rating

 

NiP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 70.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.6% round win percent after receiving first death

NiP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): REZ +12 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | device +6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Plopski 0 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

NiP - Key stats on Overpass past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 71.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.4% round win percent after receiving first death

NiP - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (6 maps): device +22 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | REZ +9 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating

*Note, these stats for NiP only include results since device joined the lineup.

Analysis:

The odds have this one as basically a coinflip which seems crazy to me. Evil Geniuses have looked impressive recently and put up solid performances against Gambit, but Ninjas in Pyjamas are still a much better team. Both teams have had a few changes to their lineups recently, and the newest additions for each team seem to be doing just fine (MICHU and LNZ). I think that NiP has a stronger map pool than EG at the moment, and there is not much that Evil Geniuses can do in the map veto to swing things in their favor. Ninjas in Pyjamas are a no brainer play to me for DFS because I think they should win this pretty easily, and the close odds will hopefully cause some high ownership on EG. Device is the most expensive player for this series, but I still think he is too cheap at $9,000. Hampus, REZ, LNZ, and Plopski would be all be targets for me in a stack, and that is in order of priority. MICHU and CeRq are more interesting to me than oBo and Brehze just due to pricing, but I am not really focusing on EG here. Give me device in a stack with two other NiP players for this series. 

**Favorite Stacks: NAVI, Ninjas in Pyjamas 

**Favorite CPT plays: s1mple, device 

**Favorite value plays: Perfecto, hampus, electronic, REZ, LNZ, B1T, Boombl4, olofmeister