OG (World rank: #16) vs. Vitality (World rank: #12)
Moneyline Odds: OG (-105) | Vitality (-115)
Map Handicap: OG +1.5 (-300) | Vitality -1.5 (+235)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the IEM Summer 2021 Semi-finals.
- OG - Rating at event: mantuu 1.41 | flameZ 1.37 | valde 1.22 | Aleksib 1.07 | niko 1.02
- OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.20 | valde 1.18 | flameZ 1.15 | Aleksib 1.11 | niko 1.00
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.52 | misutaaa 1.33 | Kyojin 1.14 | shox 1.01 | apEX 0.98
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.32 | misutaaa 1.03 | shox 1.01 | apEX 0.98 | Kyojin 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other on May 15th, 2021, at Flashpoint 3. Vitality swept the series 2-0 (16-7 Dust2 / 16-13 Inferno) and ZywOo led the way with 48 kills, 89.6 ADR, and a 1.49 Rating across two maps.
Projected Maps:
OG removes Dust2
Vitality removes Ancient
OG picks Mirage
Vitality picks Dust2
OG removes Overpass
Vitality removes Nuke
Inferno is left over.
- The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix, plus this is now the playoffs so teams could get sneaky. Vitality have prioritized banning Ancient in this tournament, so it would make sense for them to do that again on Saturday. If they do ban Ancient, then Mirage makes a ton of sense for OG. They are 6-0 on that map with their current lineup, and it is Vitality’s least played map in the past three months (outside of Ancient, which just got added to the map pool). We have also always heard about how the French dislike Mirage, which seems to be somewhat true. Vitality picked Dust2 against OG last time they faced and won 16-7, so it would make sense for them to go back to that pick. Inferno would be the most likely decider in this scenario.
OG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (6 maps): 6-0 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 79.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 47.6% round win percent after receiving first death
OG - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (6 maps): mantuu +52 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | flameZ +10 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | valde +26 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Aleksib +11 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | niko +4 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
OG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 69.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.1% round win percent after receiving first death
OG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): mantuu +30 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | Aleksib +16 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | valde +24 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Mirage past three months (1 maps): 1-0 W/L record, 0.0% pistol round win percent, 92.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 23.1% round win percent after receiving first death
Vitality - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (1 maps): ZywOo +13 K/D Diff, 1.55 Rating | misutaaa +4 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | apEX +1 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | shox +4 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 12.5% pistol round win percent, 71.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.5% round win percent after receiving first death
Vitality - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): ZywOo +20 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | misutaaa +15 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating
Analysis:
OG at bootcamp versus a Vitality team with players other than ZywOo actually fragging? We should be in for a good one here as there is a ton of firepower on both sides and both teams are playing well. Last time these teams faced each other, ZywOo completely took over and had 50% more kills than his next highest teammate. The map pool does appear to be somewhat in OG’s favor, but Vitality will be really tough to beat if they keep up this level of play. Misutaaa and Kyojin have definitely stepped it up in this tournament and that is reflected in their Ratings. OG have won six series in a row, and I certainly think they can win on Mirage if that map is played, but I see this as a 2-1 win for Vitality and I think that Vitality should be the priority for DFS. ZywOo should be in for another monster day, and Kyojin still has a ton of upside at a cheap price on Draftkings. Misutaaa has really been the secondary star to ZywOo for this tournament though, and he should be considered a core play. If you did want to mix in some OG players, then valde is way too cheap at $6,800, and mantuu has been dominating so he will probably have a respectable scoreline even in a loss, but Vitality will be my focus.
G2 (World rank: #4) vs. Gambit (World rank: #1)
Moneyline Odds: G2 (+145) | Gambit (-175)
Map Handicap: G2 +1.5 (-200) | Gambit (+160)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three series for the IEM Summer 2021 Semi-finals.
- G2 - Rating at event: huNter- 1.30 | NiKo 1.25 | AmaNEk 1.09 | nexa 1.01 | JaCkz 0.96
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.17 | huNter- 1.14 | AmaNEk 1.00 | nexa 0.98 | JaCkz 0.93
- Gambit - Rating at event: Ax1Le 1.34 | sh1ro 1.26 | nafany 0.99 | Hobbit 0.96 | interz 0.95
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.26 | Hobbit 1.22 | Ax1Le 1.23 | nafany 1.07 | interz 0.99
H2H Data:
- These rosters have faced each other at DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 on two occasions: April 29th when Gambit won 2-1 (16-8 Mirage / 13-16 Train / 16-4 Dust2), and May 8th when Gambit won 2-0 (16-6 Inferno / 16-9 Vertigo). NiKo had the second highest number of kills on the server despite his team winning only 15 rounds across two maps.
Projected Maps:
G2 removes Overpass
Gambit removes Nuke
G2 picks Inferno
Gambit picks Vertigo
G2 removes Dust2
Gambit removes Ancient
Mirage is left over.
- The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix, plus this is now the playoffs so teams could get sneaky. Overpass & Nuke should be the first two maps removed, and Ancient may be a possible map choice, though I am not expecting it. G2 should pick Inferno which has been their best map in terms of win rate in the past three months, and also Gambit’s least played map in the past three months (outside of Ancient, of course). Mirage makes the most sense as the decider here.
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (16 maps): 12-4 W/L record, 68.8% pistol round win percent, 76.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.5% round win percent after receiving first death
G2 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (16 maps): huNter- +57 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | NiKo +38 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | AmaNEk +5 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 45.0% pistol round win percent, 67.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.2% round win percent after receiving first death
G2 - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (10 maps): huNter- +42 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | NiKo +50 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (11 maps): 9-2 W/L record, 72.7% pistol round win percent, 83.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.9% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (11 maps): Ax1Le +105 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | sh1ro +89 K/D Diff, 1.36 Rating | Hobbit +31 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | nafany +38 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | interz +14 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (12 maps): 11-1 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 83.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 38.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (12 maps): Hobbit +92 K/D Diff, 1.43 Rating | sh1ro +89 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | Ax1Le +49 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | nafany -6 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | interz +36 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
Analysis:
If G2 was ever going to beat Gambit, it would be right now, though it will still be difficult for them. G2 has been in great form in recent months, plus they have had the luxury of preparing for this series all week since they could safely assume Gambit would beat Evil Geniuses on Friday. I also do feel obligated to keep mentioning that Ax1Le & Hobbit are both playing this tournament from home, and Hobbit has had ping issues at times, so Gambit is vulnerable in that sense. It might be hard to completely fade Gambit, especially sh1ro & Ax1Le, but G2 is the priority for me and huNter- is my favorite play on Draftkings at only $7,200. NiKo should smash at only $8,000 as well, and I think AmaNEk has been underpriced on Draftkings ever since he took over the AWP, so I will continue to go to him. Nexa is not my favorite play on the team, but he finds himself in a lot of clutch scenarios and can always have a big day. JaCkz is really cheap and can be the best entry fragger in the world when he is having a good day, so I do not mind going to him if you need to. It is unlikely that G2 dominates Gambit, so exposure to both sides may make sense, but I love G2 as an underdog in this spot and I feel as though the team makes for an excellent DFS stack on Saturday.
**Favorite Stacks: Vitality, G2
**Favorite CPT plays: ZywOo, huNter-, NiKo, misutaaa, sh1ro
**Favorite value plays: Kyojin, AmaNEk, shox, nexa, valde, Ax1Le