Vitality (World rank: #12) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #8)
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-105) | Virtus.pro (-120)
Map Handicap: Vitality +1.5 (-290) | Virtus.pro -1.5 (+225)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the IEM Summer 2021 Quarter-finals.
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.44 | misutaaa 1.29 | Kyojin 1.09 | shox 0.98 | apEX 0.98
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.30 | misutaaa 1.01 | shox 1.00 | apEX 0.98 | Kyojin 0.92
- Virtus.pro - Rating at event: Jame 1.17 | Qikert 1.13 | SANJI 1.03 | buster 0.96 | YEKINDAR 0.94
- Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: Jame 1.18 | YEKINDAR 1.10 | Qikert 1.02 | buster 1.02 | SANJI 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced in February at IEM Katowice 2021, RpK was still on the Vitality roster instead of Kyojin, and Vitality was using their six-man roster with Nivera substituting for shox on Inferno. VP won that series 2-0 (19-17 Inferno / 16-12 Overpass).
Projected Maps:
Vitality removes Ancient
Virtus.pro removes Nuke
Vitality picks Vertigo
Virtus.pro picks Inferno
Vitality removes Mirage
Virtus.pro removes Dust2
Overpass is left over.
- The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix, plus this is now the playoffs so teams could get sneaky. Vitality have continued to prioritize banning Ancient, so we have to assume they will do that here. Nuke is a perma-ban for VP. Vitality have a weak map pool right now and I think Vertigo makes the most sense for them here. VP should pick Inferno where they are on a four map winning streak. Overpass would be the most logical decider map in this scenario.
Vitality - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 80.0% pistol round win percent, 75.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 21.4% round win percent after receiving first death
Vitality - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +54 K/D Diff, 1.60 Rating | misutaaa +15 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Kyojin +5 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Inferno past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 12.5% pistol round win percent, 68.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Vitality - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (4 maps): apEX +3 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (8 maps): 1-7 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 67.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 23.0% round win percent after receiving first death
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (8 maps): YEKINDAR +2 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | buster +15 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Jame +21 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Inferno past three months (14 maps): 9-5 W/L record, 64.3% pistol round win percent, 76.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.4% round win percent after receiving first death
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (14 maps): Jame +78 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | SANJI +28 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | YEKINDAR -12 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | buster +6 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Analysis:
Both of these teams have looked strong in this tournament, but it was surprising for me to see Virtus.pro as only a slight favorite against Vitality in this spot. Virtus.pro fought their way through the lower bracket with wins against Spirit and Ninjas in Pyjamas, and they have proven that they came to play in this tournament. Vitality does not have a strong map pool and I feel as though there are still issues with this team. They may decide to pick Vertigo as their map since it is a map that ZywOo looks sharp on and VP do not have good stats in recent months, but VP did beat Gambit on the map earlier in the year and it would not surprise me to see them beat Vitality on Vertigo. Gambit have played Vertigo 22 times so far this year and only lost it twice: against Virtus.pro and against Heroic. VP should be heavy favorites on Inferno, especially since ZywOo has struggled on that map and he is the x-factor for Vitality. It is tough to fade ZywOo on any slate, but Virtus.pro is definitely the main focus for me here. YEKINDAR has struggled during this tournament, but he is now really cheap on Draftkings, and his potential upside is ridiculous with how aggressive he plays. Jame seems to be the most consistent play for DFS, although qikert might be the most interesting at only $6,000. Virtus.pro should be heavier favorites in this spot in my opinion, and I think they are a team that has a legitimate chance of winning IEM Summer 2021.
Gambit (World rank: #1) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #30)
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-395) | Evil Geniuses (+305)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (-110) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-115)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-180)
- This is a best-of-three series for the IEM Summer 2021 Quarter-finals.
- Gambit - Rating at event: Ax1Le 1.30 | sh1ro 1.21 | nafany 0.99 | Hobbit 0.93 | interz 0.90
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.26 | Hobbit 1.23 | Ax1Le 1.21 | nafany 1.08 | interz 0.99
- Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: oBo 1.13 | CeRq 1.03 | MICHU 1.01 | stanislaw 0.91 | Brehze 0.87
- Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: oBo 1.09 | Brehze 1.05 | MICHU 1.01 | CeRq 0.98 | stanislaw 0.85
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced back in February at IEM Katowice 2021, Ethan and tarik were still on EG instead of oBo and Michu. Evil Geniuses did win that series 2-0 (16-13 Overpass / 16-10 Inferno).
Projected Map:
Gambit removes Nuke
Evil Geniuses removes Mirage
Gambit picks Vertigo
Evil Geniuses picks Inferno
Gambit removes Dust2
Evil Geniuses removes Ancient
Overpass is left over
- The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix, plus this is now the playoffs so teams could get sneaky. We have seen EG ban Ancient already in this tournament and I do not think we see it be played on Friday. I cannot imagine them wanting to see what Gambit has in store on that map. Nuke is the typical first ban for Gambit, while EG removed Mirage against OG, and I think they do the same here. Gambit should pick Vertigo if it is an option, and Inferno seems to be the popular pick for Evil Geniuses. Overpass makes the most sense as the decider map here.
Gambit - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (12 maps): 11-1 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 83.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 38.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (12 maps): Hobbit +92 K/D Diff, 1.43 Rating | sh1ro +89 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | Ax1Le +49 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | nafany -6 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | interz +36 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (11 maps): 9-2 W/L record, 72.7% pistol round win percent, 83.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.9% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (11 maps): Ax1Le +105 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | sh1ro +89 K/D Diff, 1.36 Rating | Hobbit +31 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | nafany +38 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | interz +14 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 30.0% pistol round win percent, 74.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 20.6% round win percent after receiving first death
Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): oBo +24 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Brehze -5 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating | MICHU (2 maps) +3 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Inferno past three months (11 maps): 4-7 W/L record, 45.5% pistol round win percent, 70.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.0% round win percent after receiving first death
Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (11 maps): oBo +4 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Brehze -10 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | CeRq +1 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
Analysis:
Is there any map that Evil Geniuses can beat Gambit on? Probably not, but credit to EG for their performance at this tournament so far. Brehze, who has been one of their most consistent riflers in the past, has the lowest rating on the team for the event at only 0.87, which means the ceiling can be even higher for this team. Still, they are incredibly outmatched against Gambit, and this should be a 2-0 sweep for Gambit. The one thing we do have to keep in mind is that Ax1Le and Hobbit are playing from home, and Hobbit has had some issues with ping at times. While this may make us question whether or not Gambit is really taking this tournament seriously, it still does not make me worried about Gambit’s chances in this series, so I am staying away from EG. Ax1Le is still too cheap on Draftkings and is my favorite play from this series. Sh1ro certainly seems worth paying up for, while I am being cautious about Hobbit given that he is so expensive and playing from home. Nafany looks like an excellent value option, and interz is a good option too but less exciting.
**Favorite Stacks: Gambit, Virtus.pro
**Favorite CPT plays: Ax1Le, YEKINDAR, sh1ro, Jame
**Favorite value plays: qikert, nafany, buster, interz