forZe (World rank: #17) vs. Young Ninjas (World rank: #49) 

Moneyline Odds: forZe (-345) | Young Ninjas (+240) 

Map Handicap: forZe -1.5 (+110) | Young Ninjas +1.5 (-145)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 1 lower bracket semi-finals.
  • forZe - Rating at event: FL1T 1.27 | Jerry 1.16 | almazer 1.14 | zorte 1.07 | KENSI 0.92
  • forZe - Rating past three months: FL1T 1.17 | zorte 1.12 | Jerry 1.05 | KENSI 1.03 | almazer 1.01
  • Young Ninjas - Rating at event: phzy 1.17 | nilo 0.99 | Sapec 0.98 | Ro1f N/A | ztr N/A
  • Young Ninjas - Rating past three months: phzy 1.06 | nilo 1.03 | Sapec 1.03 | Ro1f 0.90 | ztr 0.87

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Projected Map:

forZe removes Vertigo

Young Ninjas removes Dust2

forZe picks Mirage

Young Ninjas picks Inferno

forZe removes Train

Young Ninjas removes Nuke

Overpass is left over

  • Note: Train is still in the map pool for this tournament instead of Ancient. Vertigo & Dust2 should get removed to start, and Mirage & Inferno should be the first two map picks. Overpass makes the most sense as the decider with Nuke as a possibility as well. This map veto seems to be pretty straightforward, but you never know sometimes.

forZe - Key stats on Mirage past three months (28 maps): 20-8 W/L record, 53.6% pistol round win percent, 75.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.4% round win percent after receiving first death

forZe - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (28 maps): FL1T +114 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | zorte +118 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Jerry +50 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | KENSI +46 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | almazer +20 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

forZe - Key stats on Inferno past three months (15 maps): 8-7 W/L record, 43.3% pistol round win percent, 71.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.0% round win percent after receiving first death

forZe - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (15 maps): FL1T +22 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | zorte +20 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating

Young Ninjas - Key stats on Mirage past three months (28 maps): 20-8 W/L record, 48.2% pistol round win percent, 75.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.5% round win percent after receiving first death

Young Ninjas - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (28 maps): phzy +94 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating 

Young Ninjas - Key stats on Inferno past three months (36 maps): 24-12 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.4% round win percent after receiving first death

Young Ninjas - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (36 maps): Sapec +4 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | phzy +72 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | nilo +23 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating

Analysis:

Young Ninjas are big underdogs against forZe on Thursday, and perhaps they should be even bigger underdogs considering their recent changes. Ztr was recently demoted from NiP and switched spots with LNZ, while the team also decided to replace Mann3n with Ro1f just last week. Mann3n had been playing well as of late and even had a Rating of 1.19 across his final five maps with the team, so replacing him with the 16 year old up-and-comer seems puzzling. To me, it seems like the organization wants Young Ninjas to stay as a lower tier team, rather than a team that is competing at the top with the likes of Ninjas of Pyjamas. Still, Young Ninjas have won eight in a row on Inferno and have some chance to keep this series close. Phzy, ztr and nilo all look like potential value plays, but I see this as an easy sweep for forZe and I think a three stack of forZe players is the best idea. FL1T definitely looks worth paying up for despite his expensive price. Zorte costs a bit too much for me in this spot, although he can take over a map with the AWP. Jerry has been good in this tournament and looks like a solid play. KENSI is really interesting at such a cheap price, and almazer is my least favorite play on the team. 
 

SINNERS (World rank: #34) vs. Entropiq (World rank: #15) 

Moneyline Odds: Sinners (+200) | Entropiq (-280) 

Map Handicap: Sinners +1.5 (-165) | Entropiq -1.5 (+125)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-160)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 1 lower bracket semi-finals.
  • Sinners - Rating at event: NEOFRAG 1.23 | beastik 1.12 | oskar 1.10 | SHOCK 1.02 | ZEDKO 0.92
  • Sinners - Rating past three months: oskar 1.23 | NEOFRAG 1.21 | SHOCK 1.04 | beastik 1.01 | ZEDKO 1.01
  • Entropiq - Rating at event: El1an 1.31 | Forester 1.15 | Krad 1.09 | Lack1 1.09 | NickelBack 0.98
  • Entropiq - Rating past three months: El1an 1.25 | Forester 1.13 | Krad 1.07 | Lack1 1.05 | NickelBack 1.03

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced in April 2021 when Entropiq was playing as ex-Winstrike. Entropiq/ex-Winstrike won the series 2-0 (16-1 Overpass / Vertigo 16-6) and El1an led the way 43 kills, 119.2 ADR and a 1.78 Rating. Everyone on Entropiq/ex-Winstrike had a positive K/D ratio while everyone on Sinners went negative.

Projected Map:

Sinners removes Dust2

Entropiq removes Inferno

Sinners picks Vertigo

Entropiq picks Overpass

Sinners removes Train

Entropiq removes Nuke

Mirage is left over

Note: Train is still in the map pool for this tournament instead of Ancient. I predict that the veto will go the same as the last time these teams faced, with Dust2 & Inferno being the first bans and Vertigo & Overpass being the first two maps picked. Mirage would make the most sense as a decider again. If any team were to switch things up, it would probably be Sinners since they got dominated last time, but these maps still make the most sense for them. 
 

Sinners - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (33 maps): 25-8 W/L record, 56.1% pistol round win percent, 75.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.6% round win percent after receiving first death

Sinners - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (33 maps): NEOFRAG +165 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | oskar +177 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | SHOCK +75 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating

Sinners - Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 21.4% pistol round win percent, 65.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 34.8% round win percent after receiving first death

Sinners - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): oskar +37 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | NEOFRAG +12 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | SHOCK +6 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | beastik +2 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating

Entropiq - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.3% round win percent after receiving first death

Entropiq - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): El1an +21 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Krad +6 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | NickelBack +4 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating

Entropiq - Key stats on Overpass past three months (16 maps): 8-8 W/L record, 28.1% pistol round win percent, 74.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 24.4% round win percent after receiving first death

Entropiq - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (16 maps): Forester +42 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | El1an +17 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating

Analysis:

Entropiq are heavy favorites in this series, but I think Sinners can take a map, most likely Vertigo. Last time these teams faced, Sinners did lose Vertigo 6-16, but ZEDKO lost internet for the second half and t0rick had to stand in, so any chance of a comeback was basically dead. I still have Entropiq winning this series 2-1, but the odds should be more in Sinners favor than they currently are in my opinion. NEOFRAG had the highest ADR on Sinners last time these teams faced, and I think that he is way too cheap on Draftkings at $7,600 given his potential upside. I would recommend exposure to both sides of this series, with El1an, Forester, NEOFRAG, and oskar looking like the obvious best plays, in that order. SHOCK and Krad are both interesting value plays and either one does have a small chance to be the highest scorer on the server. I think we are in for a close series between two solid teams! 
 

**Favorite Stacks: forZe

**Favorite CPT plays: FL1T, El1an, Forester, NEOFRAG, oskar, Jerry, zorte

**Favorite value plays: KENSI, Krad, SHOCK, phzy, ztr