Anonymo (World rank: #42) vs. Honoris (World rank: #119)
Moneyline Odds: Anonymo (-320) | HONORIS (+230)
Map Handicap: Anonymo -1.5 (+105) | HONORIS +1.5 (-140)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-155)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group E opening match of the Spring Sweet Spring 3 Regionals.
- Anonymo - Rating past three months: KEi 1.11 | Snax 1.03 | Kylar 1.02 | innocent 1.01 | mynio 0.95
- HONORIS - Rating past three months: reiko 1.17 | azizz 1.05 | Grucha 0.97 | NEO 0.91 | TaZ 0.84
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Both teams are Polish and Snax used to play with TaZ & NEO on Virtus.pro, so there is still plenty of history here.
Projected Maps:
Anonymo removes Dust2
HONORIS removes Overpass
Anonymo picks Nuke
HONORIS picks Vertigo
Anonymo removes Ancient
HONORIS removes Inferno
Mirage is left over
- The map pool will continue to be tricky to predict with such little data on Ancient. Anonymo did play it once and lose 14-16 to Sangal, and we have not seen HONORIS play with Ancient in the map pool. Nuke is Anonymo’s most played map by far and they should pick it here. HONORIS might go for a map like Vertigo, which they have had their highest win rate on. Mirage would make sense as the decider map here.
Anonymo - Key stats on Nuke past three months (30 maps): 18-12 W/L record, 65.0% pistol round win percent, 74.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.5% round win percent after receiving first death
Anonymo - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (30 maps): KEi +59 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | innocent +22 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Snax +44 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Kylar +33 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Anonymo - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (14 maps): 8-6 W/L record, 32.1% pistol round win percent, 74.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.1% round win percent after receiving first death
Anonymo - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (14 maps): KEi +51 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | Kylar +59 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Snax +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
HONORIS - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 3-5 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 67.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.1% round win percent after receiving first death
HONORIS - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): reiko +31 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | azizz +5 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
HONORIS - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (6 maps): 5-1 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 79.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.6% round win percent after receiving first death
HONORIS - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (6 maps): Grucha +11 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | azizz +12 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | reiko +18 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Analysis:
Anonymo is a much better team and should be a heavy favorite on every map besides maybe Vertigo. Even then, Vertigo will probably still go the way of Anonymo, especially considering they would likely start on the CT side, where they have an impressive 56.8% win rate across 14 maps in the past three months. Ancient is a wild card of course, but Anonymo has at least played an official on that map so they should not be caught completely off guard if it gets picked. KEi is the clear best play for DFS, although I do like Snax a lot as well because there was drama with him, NEO, and TaZ and I could see a ‘revenge narrative’ play out here. Reiko looks decent on the HONORIS side of things, but I think we can confidently lock in an Anonymo three-stack on Draftkings.
Wisla Krakow (World rank: #85) vs. PACT (World rank: #145)
Moneyline Odds: Wisla Krakow (-255) | PACT (+185)
Map Handicap: Wisla Krakow -1.5 (+125) | PACT +1.5 (-170)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group E opening match of the Spring Sweet Spring 3 Regionals.
- Wisla Krakow - Rating past three months: Markos 1.17 | Goofy 1.13 | jedqr 1.10 | SZPERO 0.99 | ponczek 0.98
- PACT - Rating past three months: MINISE 0.99 | bnox 0.94 | lunAtic 0.93 | darko 0.91 | splawik 0.78
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other on May 19th, 2021, and Pact won 2-0 (16-10 Inferno / 22-20 Train). Sobol was still in the PACT lineup for that series, but he was benched from the active roster last week.
Projected Maps:
Wisla Krakow removes Vertigo
PACT removes Mirage
Wisla Krakow picks Overpass
PACT picks Inferno
Wisla Krakow removes Dust2
PACT removes Ancient
Nuke is left over
- The map pool will continue to be tricky to predict with such little data on Ancient, especially since neither of these teams have played with it in the map pool yet. Wisla Krakow used to love Train, so they were worse off when that map got removed. Overpass has been the best map for WK in the past three months and I think they will pick it here. PACT picked Inferno and won it last time so it would make sense for them to pick it again. Nuke would make sense as the decider in this scenario.
Wisla Krakow - Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 5-2 W/L record, 64.3% pistol round win percent, 82.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Wisla Krakow - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): Markos +12 K/D Diff, 1.73 Rating | jedqr +14 K/D Diff, 1.70 Rating | Goofy +12 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | SZPERO +2 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Wisla Krakow - Key stats on Inferno past three months (14 maps): 7-7 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 69.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.4% round win percent after receiving first death
Wisla Krakow - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (14 maps): Goofy +31 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | Markos +21 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | jedqr +8 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | SZPERO +12 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
PACT - Key stats on Overpass past three months (4 maps): 0-4 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 66.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 18.6% round win percent after receiving first death
PACT - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (4 maps): MINISE -8 K/D Diff, 0.94 Rating
PACT - Key stats on Inferno past three months (10 maps): 2-8 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 65.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 24.1% round win percent after receiving first death
PACT - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (10 maps): MINISE -13 K/D Diff, 0.92 Rating
Analysis:
On June 4th, 2021, PACT announced that Sobol was stepping down and taking a break from the team. Sobol was the best player on the team by all statistical measures, including a 1.09 Rating and 80.3 ADR across 52 maps in the past three months. HLTV has splawik listed as his replacement while Draftkings has phr in their player pool. Either way, I am completely staying away from PACT. Despite PACT winning last time these times played, I would consider Wisla Krakow a heavy favorite in this match-up, especially with Sobol on the bench. It is one thing to replace a player on short notice, but it is another thing to have to replace your best player. Markos and Goofy look like smash plays for DFS, and everyone on Wisla Krakow is an option for me. MINISE looks to be the best option on PACT, but that is a fade for me, especially with his expensive price tag. The map pool is a little awkward for Wisla Krakow now that Train is not an option, but they should beat PACT on any map that gets played.
**Favorite Stacks: Anonymo, Wisla Krakow
**Favorite CPT plays: KEi, Markos, Snax, Goofy, jedqr
**Favorite value plays: Kylar, innocent, SZPERO, ponczek, reiko, MINISE, lunAtic