ALTERNATE aTTaX (World rank: #98) vs. Chetz (World rank: #129) 

Moneyline Odds: ATN atx (-165) | Chetz (+125) 

Map Handicap: ATN atx -1.5 (+180) | Chetz +1.5 (-250)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Group D opening match of the Spring Sweet Spring 3 Regionals.
  • ATN atx - Rating past three months: PANIX 1.09 | Krimbo 1.08 | ScrunK 0.93 | prosus 0.93 | kRYSTAL 0.85
  • Chetz - Rating past three months: jayzaR 1.18 | Swaggy 1.06 | entz 1.06 | Ping 1.00 | HOLMES 0.88

H2H Data

  • These rosters have never faced each other. Entz has been with Chetz since April 2021, and HOLMES just came over to the roster last week on loan from ONYX.  

Projected Maps

    ATN atx removes Ancient

  Chetz removes Inferno

    ATN atx picks Vertigo

    Chetz picks Nuke

    ATN atx removes Dust2

    Chetz removes Mirage

    Overpass is left over

  • The map pool will continue to be tricky to predict with such little data on Ancient, plus we have new members on Chetz which could be a factor. ATN atx used to ban train and have used their first ban on Ancient before, so I think they will remove it here. Chetz will likely pick Nuke if it is available, and ALTERNATE aTTaX will probably go for Vertigo especially since Inferno should be removed first by Chetz. Overpass would be the most likely decider in this scenario. 

ATN atx - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (16 maps): 7-9 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 71.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.8% round win percent after receiving first death

ATN atx - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (16 maps): PANIX +55 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Krimbo +3 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating

ATN atx - Key stats on Nuke past three months (10 maps): 2-8 W/L record, 35.0% pistol round win percent, 65.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 22.4% round win percent after receiving first death

ATN atx - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (10 maps): PANIX +30 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Krimbo +27 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating

Chetz - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 62.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 36.1% round win percent after receiving first death

Chetz - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): entz (1 map) +9 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | Ping +2 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating | jayzaR +3 K/D Diff, 0.97 Rating

Chetz - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 69.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 36.9% round win percent after receiving first death

Chetz - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): jayzaR +56 K/D Diff, 1.42 Rating | entz (4 maps) +13 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating

Analysis

We have to do a little digging to get a read on this Chetz team because entz has only been there since April 2021, and HOLMES just got added last week on loan from ONYX. Chetz have played two maps with this roster in the past few days as part of ESEA Advanced League Season 37 Europe, which is the league below Premier. They lost their first best-of-one against K23 6-16 on Overpass, and entz led the team with 18 kills. On Monday, Chetz played on Vertigo against NASR and jayZar took over the game with 29 kills in a 16-12 victory. Vertigo has been a common map pick for ALTERNATE aTTaX and if we see it on Tuesday then I think Chetz can put up a good fight, especially considering ALTERNATE aTTaX have a T round win percent of only 42% in the past three months on that map. ATN atx have a four map losing streak on Nuke, so again that is a map that Chetz could win if we see it. Overall, Chetz look to be a live underdog in this series and jayzaR could easily take over the series and break the slate. I think jayzaR could be a really good play even if his team loses. Swaggy looks good as well, but entz looks like the better play to me especially since he is only $6,800 on Draftkings. HOLMES is really cheap at $5,000 but he has been inconsistent and is a really risky play with limited upside. PANIX & Krimbo look like the clear best plays on ALTERNATE aTTaX, but my main focus will be Chetz for DFS since I think they can win this series and they will likely have lower ownership given their odds. 

EC Brugge (World rank: #85) vs. Ambush (World rank: #145) 

Moneyline Odds: Brugge (-240) | Ambush (+175) 

Map Handicap: Brugge -1.5 (+140) | Ambush +1.5 (-185)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-150)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Group D opening match of the Spring Sweet Spring 3 Regionals.
  • EC Brugge - Rating past three months: Necrogenes1s 1.14 | matty 1.07 | stev0se 1.03 | n0tice 0.98 | simix 0.86 
  • Ambush - Rating past three months: Gringo 1.02 | SoneSb 1.01 | EMZ 0.98 | wasiNk 0.93 | SBT 0.92 

H2H Data

  • These rosters have never faced each other. Four members of Ambush and three members of EC Brugge were on the server when these teams faced as Apologis and MAESTRO, respectively, back in January. The rosters have clearly changed since then, but Apologis/Ambush did win that series 2-0 (16-5 Dust2 / 16-7 Vertigo). RitchiEE left EC Brugge last month and was recently replace by Necogenes1s, who has played five maps with the team so far.

Projected Maps

    Brugge removes Overpass

Ambush removes Mirage

    Brugge picks Vertigo

    Ambush picks Dust2

    Brugge removes Ancient

    Ambush removes Nuke

    Inferno is left over

  • The map pool will continue to be tricky to predict with such little data on Ancient, especially since we have not seen either team play an official with Ancient in the map pool yet. This is my best educated guess for how the map veto will go, but there is not much to go off of, so my confidence is limited. 

Brugge - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (16 maps): 9-7 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 75.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.4% round win percent after receiving first death

Brugge - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (16 maps): Necrogenes1s (1 map) +5 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | matty -3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | n0tice +11 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

Brugge - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (10 maps): 5-5 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 67.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.9% round win percent after receiving first death

Brugge - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (10 maps): Necrogenes1s (1 map) +3 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating stev0se -4 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating 

Ambush - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (4 maps): 1-3 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 64.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 34.5% round win percent after receiving first death

Ambush - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (4 maps): EMZ -3 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | SBT -8 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating

Ambush - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 69.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 23.9% round win percent after receiving first death

Ambush - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (7 maps): EMZ +19 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | SoneSb +4 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Gringo -4 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | SBT +2 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating

Analysis

There are a lot of interesting Ambush players on this slate because EMZ, Gringo, and SoneSb are all too cheap in a series that I think will be much more competitive towards the Ambush side than these odds suggest. EC Brugge is in a weird spot ever since their highest rated player, ritchiEE, left in May right after the team decided to extend all contracts for six more months. With a 1.20 Rating in 2021, ritchiEE left a big hole in their lineup, but Necrogenes1s has looked good trying to fill it. Necrogenes1s has a 1.14 Rating across five maps with the team thus far, but the team only converted one of those maps into a win. Stev0se also said that he may be done with the team after his contract ends, which goes to show that there are a lot of question marks with this team right now. Necrogenes1s looks like a solid DFS play, along with Stev0se and matty, but I would still recommend having exposure to Ambush, especially EMZ, Gringo, and SoneSb. EC Brugge is a heavy favorite at (-240) odds so it is hard to completely fade them, but it may be a good idea to have players from both sides in your lineup since the underdog should put up a strong performance. 

**Favorite Stacks: Chetz

**Favorite CPT plays: jayzaR, Necrogenes1s, entz, matty, Stev0se, Swaggy

**Favorite value plays: EMZ, Gringo, SoneSb, Pin