Spirit (World rank: #14) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #9)
Moneyline Odds: Spirit (-130) | Virtus.pro (+105)
Map Handicap: Spirit -1.5 (+215) | VP +1.5 (-270)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-145)
This is a best-of-one series for the Group B lower bracket semi-final of IEM Summer 2021.
Spirit - Rating at event: mir 1.36 | degster 1.23 | magixx 1.23 | sdy 1.19 | chopper 1.14
Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.20 | degster 1.20 | sdy 1.11 | magixx 1.08 | chopper 1.04
VP - Rating at event: Jame 1.30 | YEKINDAR 1.12 | Qikert 0.97 | SANJI 0.84 | buster 0.81
VP - Rating past three months: Jame 1.19 | YEKINDAR 1.12 | buster 1.02 | Qikert 1.00 | SANJI 0.91
H2H Data:
These rosters have faced each other twice recently. On May 29th, VP beat Spirit 2-1 at EPIC League CIS 2021 (16-12 Inferno / 5-16 Dust2 / 16-7 Overpass). On April 30th, VP swept Spirit 2-0 at DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 (16-11 Train / 16-11 Inferno).
Projected Map:
Spirit removes Vertigo
VP removes Nuke
Spirit picks Dust2
VP picks Inferno
Spirit removes Overpass
VP removes Ancient
Mirage is left over
The map pool is tricky to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Spirit have not banned it yet, so I think VP will be the ones to do it. Dust2 & Inferno seem like the probable map picks, and Mirage or maybe Overpass would then likely be the decider.
Spirit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (14 maps): 12-2 W/L record, 67.9% pistol round win percent, 81.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 39.7% round win percent after receiving first death
Spirit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (14 maps): mir +85 K/D Diff, 1.36 Rating | degster +54 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | chopper +35 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | magixx +21 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | sdy +25 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 80.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.0% round win percent after receiving first death
Spirit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): mir +34 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | degster +24 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | sdy +8 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | magixx +10 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
VP - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (13 maps): 7-6 W/L record, 46.2% pistol round win percent, 69.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 21.9% round win percent after receiving first death
VP - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (13 maps): Jame +60 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | YEKINDAR -26 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
VP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 7-5 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 74.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.9% round win percent after receiving first death
VP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): Jame +63 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | YEKINDAR -6 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | SANJI +16 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | buster +8 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Analysis:
VP won this match-up the last two times, but I think Spirit come out on top this time. Virtus.pro has been declining since reaching the #3 world ranking in March 2021, and their style of playing for an opening pick has seemed to lose some steam, perhaps because other teams have figured it out a bit. Spirit have had some impressive wins in the past month with 2-0 sweeps against NAVI, Gambit, Entropiq, K23, and bankaPEPSI, and I think that they will be higher than #12 in the world rankings soon enough. Mir looks like the best play because he is way too cheap, and degster looks great as well. I think a 2-0 sweep for Spirit is certainly a possibility with these maps, but it will probably be a close series. Jame makes some sense as a potential DFS play even if you think Spirit will win, and YEKINDAR plays so aggressively that he always has a chance to break the slate, but overall, I think Spirit is the much better stack.
Complexity (World rank: #13) vs. Gambit (World rank: #1)
Moneyline Odds: Complexity (+220) | Gambit (-280)
Map Handicap: Complexity +1.5 (-125) | Gambit -1.5 (Even)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-180)
This is a best-of-one series for the Group A lower bracket final. The winner will advance to the quarter-finals of the playoffs and the loser will be eliminated.
Complexity - Rating at event: jks 1.17 | RUSH 1.05 | blameF 1.05 | poizon 1.03 | k0nfig 1.00
Complexity - Rating past three months: blameF 1.18 | k0nfig 1.13 | jks 1.05 | poizon 1.03 | RUSH 0.92
Gambit - Rating at event: Ax1Le 1.33 | sh1ro 1.17 | nafany 1.06 | interz 0.98 | Hobbit 0.89
Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.25 | Ax1Le 1.22 | Hobbit 1.22 | nafany 1.08 | interz 0.99
H2H Data:
These rosters have faced each other once, which was back on December 1st at DreamHack Masters Winer 2020 Europe. Gambit dominated in a 2-0 sweep (16-5 Train / 16-5 Mirage). Surprisingly, interz was the one at the top of the leaderboards with 41 kills and 20 deaths. Everyone on Gambit had a positive K/D ratio and everyone on Complexity had a negative K/D ratio.
Projected Map:
Complexity removes Ancient
Gambit removes Nuke
Complexity picks Mirage
Gambit picks Vertigo
Complexity removes Overpass
Gambit removes Dust2
Inferno is left over.
Like I said, the map pool is tricky to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Complexity have prioritized banning it right away, so I think they will do that again here. Mirage & Vertigo make plenty of sense as the first two maps, and Inferno seems likely as the decider in that scenario.
Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past three months (22 maps): 14-8 W/L record, 65.9% pistol round win percent, 74.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Complexity - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (22 maps): blameF +133 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | k0nfig +62 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | poizon +29 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | jks +11 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 74.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.2% round win percent after receiving first death
Complexity - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (8 maps): k0nfig +27 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | jks +1 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | blameF +6 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Mirage past three months (14 maps): 11-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.1% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (14 maps): sh1ro +105 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | Ax1Le +49 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Hobbit +34 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (12 maps): 11-1 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 83.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 39.0% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (12 maps): Hobbit +82 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | Ax1Le +61 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | sh1ro +81 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | nafany -3 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | interz +45 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating
Analysis:
All signs point to Gambit winning this, but we do have to consider that Hobbit and Ax1Le are playing from home for this tournament. Ax1Le bullied Astralis and took their lunch money on Friday, so I am not concerned about him, but Hobbit seems to struggle when playing from home, partially due to ping. On Inferno against Astralis, Hobbit had only 6 kills to go along with 15 deaths, 50.4 ADR and a 0.65 Rating. Also, the fact that Gambit is not in bootcamp must mean that they only care about winning this tournament to a certain extent. With that being said, I still think Gambit win this series and sh1ro has a great chance to be the highest scorer on the slate. His price tag is all the way up to $10,000 on Draftkings, yet he is still a lock in my book because he should dominate in this match-up. If you want to fade a Gambit team playing partially from home, then blameF and k0nfig would be the best options, but I would much rather stack sh1ro with Ax1LE and then find some value plays. Interz was the man of the match last time these teams played, so he makes for an interesting value option along with nafany. I am not completely off of Hobbit, but I am cautious of him right now.
**Favorite Stacks: Gambit, Spirit
**Favorite CPT plays: sh1ro, Ax1LE, Mir, degster, Jame
**Favorite value plays: interz, nafany, sdy, magixx, chopper, YEKINDAR