1WIN (World rank: #48) vs. Izako Boars (World rank: #53) 

Moneyline Odds: 1WIN (-220) | Izako Boars (+170)

Map Handicap: 1WIN -1.5 (+150) | Izako Boars +1.5 (-190)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-145)

First thing to note is that Draftkings has byali, who is no longer on the Izako Boars roster, in the player pool for Monday, so stay away completely, and hopefully maybe some fish will help pay the rake with some byali lineups. For my stats and analysis, I ignored the matches that byali was standing in for mono.  

This is a best-of-three series for the Spring Sweet Spring 2 Playoffs Round of 16

  • 1WIN - Rating at event: TRAVIS 1.44 | propleh 1.29 | deko 1.22 | Polt 1.14 | DavCost 1.01
  • 1WIN - Rating past three months: TRAVIS 1.14 | propleh 1.07 | deko 1.32 | Polt 1.04 | DavCost 0.96
  • Izako Boars - Rating at event: STOMP 1.11 | Szjen 1.04 | mono 0.92 | TOAO 0.91 | siuhy 0.89
  • Izako Boars - Rating past three months: STOMP 1.11 | Szjen 1.09 | mono 0.95 | TOAO 0.95 | siuhy 1.02

H2H Data

These rosters faced each other on May 25th, 2021, as part of the group stage of Spring Sweet Spring 2. 1WIN won the series 2-1 (16-8 Dust2 / 16-4 Nuke) and TRAVIS had a notable performance with 44 kills, 19 deaths, 104.3 ADR, and 1.65 Rating for the series. All five members of 1WIN had positive K/D differences and all five members of Izako Boars had negative K/D differences.

Projected Maps

  • Izako Boars remove Overpass
  • 1WIN remove Inferno
  • Izako Boars pick Train
  • 1Win picks Nuke
  • Izako Boars remove Mirage
  • 1WIN removes Vertigo
  • Dust2 is left over.

1WIN - Key stats on Train past three months (18 maps): 7-11 W/L Record, 61.1% pistol round win percent, 72.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.0% round win percent after receiving first death

1WIN - Notable performers on Train past three months (18 maps): deko +149 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | TRAVIS +25 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating

1WIN - Key stats on Nuke past three months (24 maps): 20-4 W/L Record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 78.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.7% round win percent after receiving first death

1WIN - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (24 maps): deko +196 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | TRAVIS +91 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | propleh +75 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating

Izako Boars - Key stats on Train past three months (25 maps): 17-8 W/L record, 54.0% pistol round win percent, 72.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.7% round win percent after receiving first death

Izako Boars - Notable performers on Train past three months (25 maps): Szejn +37 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | STOMP +69 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | mono +26 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating

Izako Boars - Key stats on Nuke past three months (22 maps) 8-14 W/L record, 43.2% pistol round win percent, 69.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 23.2% round win percent after receiving first death

Izako Boars - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (22 maps): STOMP +16 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

Analysis

1WIN dominated this match-up last time, and I expect them to prevail on Monday as well. I think that Izako Boars may look to switch up the maps this time, especially since this is now the playoffs of Spring Sweet Spring 2. Izako Boars lost on Dust2 last time, and 1WIN is on a nine map winning streak on that map, so perhaps Izako Boars decide to pick Train this time. Train has been a solid map for Izako Boars, but most of their wins in recent months have been against weaker teams like M1 EDEN and HONORIS, while they got destroyed with a 4-16 scoreline against both Fiend and LDLC. I still favor 1WIN on Train, and if Izako Boars pick this map, then you are also getting a guaranteed 15 rounds on CT Train for 1WIN, which is great for DFS and for a player like deko especially. 1WIN makes a lot of sense to stack here, and I would mostly stay away from Izako Boars, with maybe some light exposure to STOMP/Szejn, who both had the highest ratings on the team last time against 1WIN. I like deko and TRAVIS the most and I think Polt and propleh are good as well. I would definitely prioritize DavCost the least, as he is the most likely bottom frag for 1WIN.

Dignitas (World rank: #23) vs. Wisla Krakow (World rank: #43) 

Moneyline Odds: Dignitas (-130) | Wisla Krakow (+105)

Map Handicap: Dignitas -1.5 (+230) | Wisla Krakow +1.5 (-310) 

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-135)

This is a best-of-three series for the Spring Sweet Spring 2 Playoffs Round of 16

  • Dignitas - Rating at event: f0rest 1.20 | HEAP 1.13 | Lekr0 1.10 | hallzerk 1.10 | friberg 0.95 
  • Dignitas - Rating past 3 months: f0rest 1.13 | HEAP 1.07 | Lekr0 1.10 | hallzerk 1.05 | friberg 0.92
  • Wisla Krakow - Rating at event: Goofy 1.24 | Markos 1.20 | jedqr 1.20 | ponczek 1.12 | SZPERO 1.04
  • Wisla Krakow - Rating past 3 months: Goofy 1.15 | Markos 1.19 | jedqr 1.12 | ponczek 0.98 | SZPERO 1.00

H2H Data

These rosters faced each other on May 24th, 2021, as part of the group stage of Spring Sweet Spring 2. Wisla Krakow won the series, which was close despite the 2-0 sweep (16-14 Nuke / 22-20 Train). Four players had positive K/D differences on the server -  Markos +15, jedqr +11, HEAP +6, and Goofy +4.

Projected Maps

  • WK removes Vertigo
  • Dignitas removes Mirage
  • WK picks Train
  • Dignitas picks Nuke
  • WK removes Inferno
  • Dignitas removes Overpass
  • Dust2 is left over

Dignitas - Key stats on Train past three months (10 maps): 3-7 W/L record, 50% pistol round win percent, 67.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.4% round win percent after receiving first death

Dignitas - Notable performers on Train past three months (10 maps): Lekr0 -13 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | f0rest -2 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating

Dignitas - Key stats on Nuke past three months (28 maps): 21-7 W/L Record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 78.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.2% round win percent after receiving first death

Dignitas - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (28 maps): f0rest +118 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | hallzerk +101 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Lekr0 +44 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | HEAP +30 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating

Wisla Krakow - Key stats on Train with Markos (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 74.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.8% round win percent after receiving first death

Wisla Krakow - Notable performers on Train with Markos (8 maps): Markos +79 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | Goofy +12 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | jedqr +20 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | ponczek +4 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating

Wisla Krakow - Key stats on Nuke with Markos (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 50% pistol round win percent, 71.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 20.4% round win percent after receiving first death

Wisla Krakow - Notable performers on Nuke with Markos (4 maps): jedqr +4 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Markos +12 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | ponczek +5 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating

Analysis

Ever since Markos came into the Wisla Krakow lineup for hades back on May 12th, 2021, they have been rolling, having won 21 of their 28 maps played so far. They beat Dignitas 2-0 last week, but the series really could have gone either way. Wisla Krakow had a strong T side on Nuke to come back and beat Dignitas in a full 30 rounds, and Train went to double overtime before Wisla Krakow came out on top, 22-20. I think we see the same maps as last time, so we should be in for another very competitive series. Dignitas are a slight favorite according to the odds, but this series is a coinflip for me. I think it would probably be wise to have exposure to both sides of this series rather than just stacking one side. Markos looks like the best DFS play to me and I would prioritize him the most, if possible, but hallzerk, jedqr, SZPERO, and HEAP all look like good value plays with plenty of potential upside. There are a number of different ways you could go with this one because it should be a really tight series that could even go to three maps. 

Picks

*Favorite Stacks: 1WIN

*Favorite Captain Plays: deko, TRAVIS, Markos, f0rest, Lekr0, Goofy

*Favorite Value Plays: Polt, propleh, HEAP, hallzerk, jedqr, SZPERO