SKADE (World rank: #22) vs. Sprout (World rank: #30)
Moneyline Odds: SKADE (-200) | Sprout (+145)
Map Handicap: SKADE -1.5 (+150) | Sprout +1.5 (-205)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-145)
This is a best-of-three series for Round 5 of REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 1. The winner advances to the playoffs while the losing team is eliminated.
SKADE - Rating at event: dennyslaw 1.14 | Rainwaker 1.09 | Duplicate 1.00 | oxygeN 1.00 | SH1PZ 0.90
SKADE - Rating past 3 months: dennyslaw 1.17 | Rainwaker 1.10 | Duplicate 1.04 | oxygeN 1.06 | SH1PZ 1.15
Sprout - Rating at event: faveN 1.15 | -slaxz 1.07 | kressy 1.06 | Spiidi 0.93 | denis 0.75
Sprout - Rating past 3 months: faveN 1.17 | -slaxz 1.11 | kressy 1.03 | Spiidi 0.98 | denis 0.97
H2H Data:
These teams have faced each other once in the past 3 months, which was on April 27th as part of the Flashpoint 3 Qualifiers. SKADE easily took their map pick of Inferno 16-6, but Sprout dominated their own pick of Dust2 with a 16-2 win and then Sprout also took the decider map, Mirage, with a 16-12 victory.
Notable Performers for Sprout (3 maps): faveN +25 K/D Diff, 1.43 Rating | slaxz- +19 K/D Diff, 1.36 Rating | kressy +4 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Notable Performers for SKADE (3 maps): Rainwaker +3 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Projected Maps:
Sprout removes Overpass
SKADE removes Dust2
Sprout picks Nuke
SKADE picks Inferno
Sprout removes Train
SKADE removes Vertigo
Mirage is left over
The map selection should play out similarly as last time, although this time I think we see SKADE ban Dust2 since Sprout beat them 16-2 on Dust2 last time and it is clearly Sprout’s best map. This would mean that Sprout punish picks SKADE by selecting Nuke. Sprout will definitely ban Overpass, so we should see SKADE go for Inferno again after Sprout 16-6 last time. It would make sense for Mirage to end up as the decider map again.
SKADE - Key stats on Nuke past 3 months (8 maps): 3-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 67.4% round win percent after getting first kill
SKADE - Best performers on Nuke past 3 months (8 maps): Rainwaker +14 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | SHiPZ +3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
SKADE - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (31 maps): 25-6 W/L record, 56.5% pistol round win percent, 77.7% round win percent after getting first kill
SKADE - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (31 maps): dennyslaw +110 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | Duplicate +28 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | SHiPZ +60 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Rainwaker +115 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | oxygen +49 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Sprout - Key stats on Nuke past 3 months (20 maps): 8-12 W/L record, 47.5% pistol round win percent, 68.4% round win percent after getting first kill
Sprout - Best performers on Nuke past 3 months (20 maps): faveN +19 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Sprout - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (11 maps): 5-6 W/L record, 27.3% pistol round win percent, 68.6% round win percent after getting first kill
Sprout - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (11 maps): faveN +35 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | slaxz- +28 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating
Analysis:
I know Sprout won last time, but all signs point to SKADE winning this series on Thursday, especially with a playoff spot on the line. In the decider map of the last series played between these teams, SKADE took an 11-9 lead on Mirage but proceeded to lose 12-16 after blowing some rounds that they should have won with ease. FaveN is an absolute stud and I do not mind getting to him in DFS, but overall, I am looking to target SKADE, and my money is on SKADE moneyline at (-200) odds. In the past 3 months, this SKADE roster has dominated with wins on 113 of their 158 maps played. During that time, Sprout has won a mere 50% of their maps with wins on 47 of 94 maps played. Sprout will have a more competitive performance on Thursday against SKADE than they did on Wednesday against Heroic, but they are still outmatched here and SKADE should handle them easily.
Caronte (World rank: #75) vs. Young Ninjas (World rank: #42)
Moneyline Odds: Caronte (+165) | Young Ninjas (-225)
Map Handicap: Caronte +1.5 (-190) | Young Ninjas -1.5 (+140)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-150)
This is a best-of-three series for Round 5 of REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 1. The winner advances to the playoffs while the losing team is eliminated.
Caronte - Rating at event: SunPayus 1.22 | DeathZz 1.15 | adamS 1.01 | dav1g 0.98 | Slaxx 0.93
Caronte - Rating past 3 months: SunPayus 1.24 | DeathZz 1.11 | adamS 1.05 | dav1g 0.99 | Slaxx 0.97
Young Ninjas - Rating at event: phzy 1.05 | nilo 1.01 | LNZ 0.98 | Sapec 0.91 | Mann3n 0.89
Young Ninjas - Rating past 3 months: phzy 1.04 | nilo 1.00 | LNZ 1.03 | Sapec 1.01 | Mann3n 1.01
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. This Caronte roster has only played 21 maps together so far since their first map played on April 1st, 2021, so their match history is not very extensive.
Projected Maps:
Young Ninjas removes Dust2
Caronte removes Mirage
Young Ninjas picks inferno
Caronte picks Vertigo
Young Ninjas removes Nuke
Caronte removes Overpass
Train is left over
Dust2 & Mirage are the most popular bans for Young Ninjas and Caronte, respectively, so it would make sense that those maps are removed first. Both teams like Inferno, and I think Young Ninjas will pick it since it is their most played map. Caronte has picked Vertigo before and it looks like a map that they could beat Young Ninjas on, so maybe they go for that. These maps are just difficult to predict for these teams though, especially since Caronte has such limited match history, so my confidence is low in making these educated guesses.
Caronte - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 68.8% round win percent after getting first kill
Caronte - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (6 maps): SunPayus +34 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | DeathZz +23 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | adamS +9 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Caronte - Key stats on Vertigo past 3 months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 69.6% round win percent after getting first kill
Caronte - Best performers on Vertigo past 3 months (5 maps): SunPayus +36 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | adamS +11 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Slaxx +5 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | DeathZz +11 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Young Ninjas - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (29 maps): 17-12 W/L record, 46.6% pistol round win percent, 69.6% round win percent after getting first kill
Young Ninjas - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (29 maps): phzy +53 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | LNZ +32 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | nilo +10 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Young Ninjas - Key stats on Vertigo past 3 months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 75.0% round win percent after getting first kill
Young Ninjas - Best performers on Vertigo past 3 months (6 maps): phzy +25 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating
Analysis:
Young Ninjas are solid and should be the favorite here, but (-225) odds seem too high for this series. I think this will be the type of series that stays competitive and likely goes to 3 maps. I honestly like what I have seen from Caronte so far. They have found some success with wins on 13 of their 21 maps played together. In the past 3 months, Young Ninjas have won 17 of their 29 maps played, so both teams have had a similar win rate. Young Ninjas will probably be the better team on the server, but SunPayus should be the best player on the server. My favorite bet is Caronte +1.5 (-190) because I think Caronte at least win a map here and have a chance at winning 2-0. If you are thinking about stacking Young Ninjas for DFS, then I would seriously consider having SunPayus in your lineup.
*Favorite Stacks: SKADE
*Favorite Captain Plays: dennsylaw, SHiPz, Rainwaker, SunPayus, phzy
*Favorite Value Plays: Rainwaker, nilo, DeathZ